December 4, 2018
*** This hand was suggested by james500
|Total votes: 166|
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Joined: March 2016
Tuesday 3:28 AM
Nice one, james500. I believe we need to gain a few points with this hand but not get into a pegging war with dealer.
Choice for me was between 7-K or 7-T as these have a higher expected average hand than tossing the "T-K".
Chose the 7-K as this is in Ras's group of giving opponent usually 2 points or less in his crib. Let's see how others comment on today's hand.
Joined: April 2008
Tuesday 5:29 AM
If I was already at 95-96 I would do the K-10 thing. Now its two things what they do with their main hand and getting close enough to make the next count after for me able to game out. dec
Joined: March 2008
Tuesday 5:45 AM
K-7 is almost as bad as K-10, and gives me a few for chances for a 12 hand. Lead the 3. Play cautious offense.
Joined: April 2011
Tuesday 6:19 AM
Defense, defense, defense as RAS would say. I’ll lead the three of diamonds.
Joined: August 2018
Tuesday 6:39 AM
Tossed the 7-K. Curious if the board position makes this unwise.
Joined: October 2008
Tuesday 7:10 AM
Try to maximize our hand and minimize the opponent's Crib.
Joined: March 2009
Tuesday 7:36 AM
Well see Gary and S:) comments, can't go against that! Have to balk their crib to have a chance.
Joined: January 2018
Tuesday 8:54 AM
Don't know the par holes, but looked at my board and could see I need to make up some yardage if I'm to be person counting first when time to cross the finish line. Have to chance giving away the seven.
Joined: June 2016
Tuesday 10:12 AM
With the entire remaining cards available to benefit this hand, I'll discard the K-T. As far as which hand is better for pegging, the difference is only slightly noticeable.
I am sure that all bloggers will agree that the 2-3-3 will remain together if for no other reason because of the 14 remaining X cards. I'll lead the 3d and start out defensively.
Joined: October 2007
Tuesday 1:21 PM
7's are killers. You will not make 24 with 10/K but throw a 7 and see.
Joined: October 2007
Tuesday 2:25 PM
We're in a dilemma in this position where we need to keep opponent as short as possible from 111/112pts but we also would like to be at 105+pts to give us a reasonable chance of holding out as Dealer next time. So is it 7-K or 10-K?:
2-3-3-10: 6pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.27) = +1¾pts
2-3-3-7: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = 0pt
2-3-3-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444 + 14xXs = 27 cuts.
2-3-3-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777 + 14xXs = 34 cuts.
I think both hands will peg well.
I think we must aim for 105+pts so need 12+pts. If Dealer scores the average 16pts they will be at 114pts and in a very good position to go out next deal. So I'll peg Defensively.
2-3-3-10 is 1¾pts better than 2-3-3-7 but 2-3-3-7 has more cuts for improvement. 2-3-3-10 also has 16 cuts for 12pts compared to 2 cuts with 2-3-3-7. I think 7-K will be safe enough although 10-K of course is safer. I'll throw the 7-K.
Joined: May 2016
Tuesday 2:54 PM
I to am allergic to throwing 7's in dealers crib. So, for me it came to the (hopefully) old reliable K-10. With any cut, I'll be at least at 99. As long as opponent can be held back, I just might beat him(her) to the finish line on my next deal/peg/crib.
Joined: February 2008
Tuesday 3:12 PM
At 93-98* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
Offense______L1 %___L2 %
2-3-3-10 is 0.24pt better than 2-3-3-K and 0.62pt better than 2-3-3-7. 2-3-3-10 is also best for Win %s although it is slightly higher for Loss %s as 10-K is a safer discard. So I'll select 7-K to discard.
After the 9 cut I'll lead 3D and play Defense:
Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
Joined: December 2008
Wednesday 2:39 AM
When you are playing against pones who also have good/similiar strategic understanding and you are aware that they may analyse your game as you do theirs
Before you answer, I understand that my selection tonight was not optimal
Does anyone else in general play against a perceived worthy challenger modify their strategy over a period of time so that they may gain an advantage.
I guess I am mostly referring to pegging to lull them into thinking that since I led a xxx I'm more than likely to lead a xxy when I know that I would not do so and play zzz.
In a star trekish summation does anyone sometimes find value in playing the person rather than the deck.