Monday 3:04 AM

Going with expected averages by choosing to toss 2-7 to dealer.
The values of 2-7 or 2-6 are only .01 points difference.
Same as yesterday, chose to keep the 6 card in the hand because of its proximity to the fives in the hand.

   

Monday 3:12 AM

Let's hold onto that nice, tasty, chewy center. Lead the 5s.

   

Monday 3:35 AM

4-5-7 cuts big big hand here. dec

   

Monday 4:05 AM

With three fives and a seven known to be out of circulation, 6Sp should be much more isolated in the crib than 7h, which has all four eights and three sixes available to find.

Lead the 5 of clubs.

   

Monday 5:22 AM

Triple nickel.

   

Monday 5:30 AM

With 14 points I’ll be dealing well up 3rd street. Lead the five of spades.

   

Monday 5:44 AM

With dealer at 55 not going to worry about throwing 27.

   

Monday 6:12 AM

2-7. Not too taxing for a Monday morning.

   

Monday 7:29 AM

Important to retain 5-5-5 for 8 points here rather than double run. With about 25% who play this game, they have not yet figured that 5-5-5 is worth 8 points. That might be the purpose of this puzzle submission. If crib was on my side of the board, would have ditched suited 2-5. Lead the 5s, if dealer plays on my lead will take what pegs I can garner as have no escape. Likely drop another five on my second play. With dealer short of 3rd street CPZ 69-73, have chosen an optimal pegging strategy.

   

Monday 9:06 AM

I was about to keep the double run and chance the 5 donation to the crib, but then it dawned on me that three 5's was 8 pts. Held on to the 7 just to keep the dealer down. Was expecting a 10 cut over a 4 or 7 anyway.

   

Monday 10:57 AM

Not sure why any other save. Cards next to each other. Hoping for a 6 cut hurts me by helping the crib even if it gives me 17.

Monday 1:39 PM

Another hand to break up the double run!!

   

Monday 1:52 PM

At 69-55* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W3 %___W4 %
5-5-5-6___12.54+(-4.37)+(-4.36)=3.81____8.9____59.5
5-5-5-7___11.76+(-3.93)+(-4.29)=3.54____5.4____57.3

Defense______L3 %___L4 %
5-5-5-6______0.4____5.3
5-5-5-7______0.3____5.0

5-5-5-6 is better for expected averages by 0.27pt and is appreciably better for Win %s although very slightly higher for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-7 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead a 5 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead________Net Pegging Pts.
5_______________(-2.79)
6_______________(-3.89)

   

Monday 1:59 PM

Has to be the safest discard with the most potential.