December 3, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Gougie00
69-55*  ?
83%
83%
6%
6%
3%
3%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 161
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2243 votes)

Monday 3:04 AM
Going with expected averages by choosing to toss 2-7 to dealer.
The values of 2-7 or 2-6 are only .01 points difference.
Same as yesterday, chose to keep the 6 card in the hand because of its proximity to the fives in the hand.
Guest says: It must be " no brainer week "
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4519 votes)

Monday 3:12 AM
Let's hold onto that nice, tasty, chewy center. Lead the 5s.
JQT says: Note that compared to 5-5-5-6, both 2-5-5-5 and 5-5-5-7 miss out on 23 points after a 4 Card Cut, and 17 points after a 7 Card Cut!
james500 says: Hiya John, hope you're well. Vis-a-vis the comparison between 5556 and 5557, I take your point that the boost from a 4 cut if holding 5556 is greater than the boost from a 3 cut if holding 5557, but holding 5556 and cutting a 7 for seventeen points would create the same five card combo as 5557 after cutting a 6. Three of each still available within the 46 unknown.
JQT says: Very good point that I overlooked, james. I was wondering why the expected average of these two hands are actually quite close; this explains it.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6858 votes)

Monday 3:35 AM
4-5-7 cuts big big hand here. dec
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4348 votes)

Monday 4:05 AM
With three fives and a seven known to be out of circulation, 6Sp should be much more isolated in the crib than 7h, which has all four eights and three sixes available to find.

Lead the 5 of clubs.
dgergens says: Looks like you could use some company. Cheers.
zeke76

Joined: August 2018 (1531 votes)

Monday 5:22 AM
Triple nickel.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4485 votes)

Monday 5:30 AM
With 14 points I’ll be dealing well up 3rd street. Lead the five of spades.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2867 votes)

Monday 5:44 AM
With dealer at 55 not going to worry about throwing 27.
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2340 votes)

Monday 6:12 AM
2-7. Not too taxing for a Monday morning.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Monday 7:29 AM
Important to retain 5-5-5 for 8 points here rather than double run. With about 25% who play this game, they have not yet figured that 5-5-5 is worth 8 points. That might be the purpose of this puzzle submission. If crib was on my side of the board, would have ditched suited 2-5. Lead the 5s, if dealer plays on my lead will take what pegs I can garner as have no escape. Likely drop another five on my second play. With dealer short of 3rd street CPZ 69-73, have chosen an optimal pegging strategy.
dgergens

Joined: January 2018 (940 votes)

Monday 9:06 AM
I was about to keep the double run and chance the 5 donation to the crib, but then it dawned on me that three 5's was 8 pts. Held on to the 7 just to keep the dealer down. Was expecting a 10 cut over a 4 or 7 anyway.
cribbagepogo

Joined: October 2007 (3302 votes)

Monday 10:57 AM
Not sure why any other save. Cards next to each other. Hoping for a 6 cut hurts me by helping the crib even if it gives me 17.
joekayak

Joined: May 2016 (1877 votes)

Monday 1:39 PM
Another hand to break up the double run!!
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5706 votes)

Monday 1:52 PM
At 69-55* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W3 %___W4 %
5-5-5-6___12.54+(-4.37)+(-4.36)=3.81____8.9____59.5
5-5-5-7___11.76+(-3.93)+(-4.29)=3.54____5.4____57.3

Defense______L3 %___L4 %
5-5-5-6______0.4____5.3
5-5-5-7______0.3____5.0

5-5-5-6 is better for expected averages by 0.27pt and is appreciably better for Win %s although very slightly higher for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-7 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead a 5 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead________Net Pegging Pts.
5_______________(-2.79)
6_______________(-3.89)
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Monday 1:59 PM
Has to be the safest discard with the most potential.