December 3, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Gougie00
69-55*  ?
83%
6%
3%
3%
1%
0%
Total votes: 161
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Monday 3:04 AM
Going with expected averages by choosing to toss 2-7 to dealer.
The values of 2-7 or 2-6 are only .01 points difference.
Same as yesterday, chose to keep the 6 card in the hand because of its proximity to the fives in the hand.
Guest says: It must be " no brainer week "
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:12 AM
Let's hold onto that nice, tasty, chewy center. Lead the 5s.
JQT says: Note that compared to 5-5-5-6, both 2-5-5-5 and 5-5-5-7 miss out on 23 points after a 4 Card Cut, and 17 points after a 7 Card Cut!
james500 says: Hiya John, hope you're well. Vis-a-vis the comparison between 5556 and 5557, I take your point that the boost from a 4 cut if holding 5556 is greater than the boost from a 3 cut if holding 5557, but holding 5556 and cutting a 7 for seventeen points would create the same five card combo as 5557 after cutting a 6. Three of each still available within the 46 unknown.
JQT says: Very good point that I overlooked, james. I was wondering why the expected average of these two hands are actually quite close; this explains it.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:35 AM
4-5-7 cuts big big hand here. dec
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 4:05 AM
With three fives and a seven known to be out of circulation, 6Sp should be much more isolated in the crib than 7h, which has all four eights and three sixes available to find.

Lead the 5 of clubs.
dgergens says: Looks like you could use some company. Cheers.
zeke76
1367 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Monday 5:22 AM
Triple nickel.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Monday 5:30 AM
With 14 points I’ll be dealing well up 3rd street. Lead the five of spades.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Monday 5:44 AM
With dealer at 55 not going to worry about throwing 27.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Monday 6:12 AM
2-7. Not too taxing for a Monday morning.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 7:29 AM
Important to retain 5-5-5 for 8 points here rather than double run. With about 25% who play this game, they have not yet figured that 5-5-5 is worth 8 points. That might be the purpose of this puzzle submission. If crib was on my side of the board, would have ditched suited 2-5. Lead the 5s, if dealer plays on my lead will take what pegs I can garner as have no escape. Likely drop another five on my second play. With dealer short of 3rd street CPZ 69-73, have chosen an optimal pegging strategy.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Monday 9:06 AM
I was about to keep the double run and chance the 5 donation to the crib, but then it dawned on me that three 5's was 8 pts. Held on to the 7 just to keep the dealer down. Was expecting a 10 cut over a 4 or 7 anyway.
cribbagepogo
3245 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 10:57 AM
Not sure why any other save. Cards next to each other. Hoping for a 6 cut hurts me by helping the crib even if it gives me 17.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Monday 1:39 PM
Another hand to break up the double run!!
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Monday 1:52 PM
At 69-55* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W3 %___W4 %
5-5-5-6___12.54+(-4.37)+(-4.36)=3.81____8.9____59.5
5-5-5-7___11.76+(-3.93)+(-4.29)=3.54____5.4____57.3

Defense______L3 %___L4 %
5-5-5-6______0.4____5.3
5-5-5-7______0.3____5.0

5-5-5-6 is better for expected averages by 0.27pt and is appreciably better for Win %s although very slightly higher for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-7 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead a 5 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead________Net Pegging Pts.
5_______________(-2.79)
6_______________(-3.89)
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 1:59 PM
Has to be the safest discard with the most potential.