November 8, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by smugly
40-60*  ?
33%
28%
23%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 163

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
1214 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 3:28 AM
To be honest, I am not really sure that this is the way to go at this position. We are really behind.

Tossing 5-8 is certainly better than tossing 5-5 which leaves a good hand that increases with every cut.

Whether you decide to toss 5-8 to 5-5 there are 24 cuts that keep each hand at 10 points or 12 points, respectively.

Considered holding 5-5-7-7 and tossing 6-8 a safe toss as we are holding 7-7 but that would reduce our hand to only 4 points to begin with rather that 8 or 12 as noted above.
JQT
2486 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 4:00 AM
I might play this differently depending upon whether I was trying to somehow still WIN this game, or whether I was merely attempting to avert the SKUNK.

Let's go for the WIN! We have Eight Cuts (666, 77, 888) that will give us Twenty or more Points. And Toss 5-5 is worth about Ten Points, or *only* around Two Points more than Toss 7-8.

Trailing by Twenty (good 'Working Title' for that Cribbage-Related Horror Flick) is probably no place to be getting all defensive, with ideas such as Toss 5-8 or perhaps even worse, Toss 6-8.
Jazzselke
1219 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 4:26 AM
Agree with JQT, if trying to win the game you have to throw the fives. If trying to avoid a skunk, or protecting your spread in a tournament, other throws to be considered. In a game last year with 556788, I kept 5567 and threw the eights to my opponent in a less extreme position. Cut a 7 for 16, but he had a 24 crib!
james500
2131 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 4:53 AM
Nothing appeals, but 5-8 is the least unappetising.

7d lead.
wasa
1218 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Thursday 5:45 AM
Really don't want to toss 5-5 or 7-8 so going for the safer 5-8. Glad I didn't toss the 5-5 with the J cut.
Gougie00
3894 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 6:03 AM
Down by 20, gotta go for the long bomb. The Jack doesnt help and the other guy's crib already has 6. I smell a skunk. Ugh ...
glmccuskey
2972 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Thursday 8:12 AM
Not much choice in this position.
dgergens
332 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Thursday 8:51 AM
Depending whether you are dealing or not, this is one of those hands that brings great joy or great consternation. I know we're 20 points down, but there's a few more hands to be dealt. What good is a good score if dealer matches it with a great crib? I'll toss the 5,8, be happy with 8 points, hope for a double double, and expect a 24 point hand in the immediate future.
Ras2829
3367 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 10:21 AM
You know what the chances of me tossing 5-5 are? I don't want to face potential murder charges. Those new to the site may not have heard my real-life experience with tossing 5-5 to opponent crib. The last times that I took a chance on 5-5, the combined score was 51 points (23 + 28). In that latter situation, dealer gave me 5-5-7-7-8-8. Like today's dilemma, was down 20 points or better in the middle of third street. The cut was a 10d to which I replied: "Oh shit!" He asked: What's the trouble?" I replied: "I just dumped 5-5 to your crib." He quickly said: "Ain't that something? So did I!" Dealer had tossed that powerful pair from 2-2-3-4-5-5. He scored his hand of 12 points, took what was left of fourth street with that 28-point crib. He died the following week. Have always believed the shock of that crib had something to do with his demise. Whenever I saw his widow, was always tight-lipped about that huge crib and the degree that it may have shocked him excessively.. Was concerned that she could make a case for a premeditated murder. In looking at my records, I have tossed fifty-eight 5-5 combinations to opponent and made that choice 500 times to own crib. Those were recorded over more than a decade (about 14 years). That's an average of about four times annually for that powerful 5-05 to opponent. Believe 50 of the 58 were prior to that fateful shocking day of the 28 crib. Don't try it! Unless you're a seasoned sniper with a huge kill total, don't chance it. Killing somebody could cause you a lifetime of guilt. It's the 5-8 for me, lead a 7 choosing an offense strategy. Don't believe dealer will pair the 7 with a 20 point lead. It leaves me with three consecutive cards which increases my chances for pegs if dealer plays off my 7 lead.
joekayak
732 votes

Joined: May 2016

Thursday 10:26 AM
I won't throw 5-5. With a throw of 7-8, I have one of the 6's and one of the 7's. In poker, they call these blockers. I hate my position. I hate my throw. But I'll hold my nose and throw 8-7 and keep 5-5-6-7 and it looks like I have company. So far, just no one except me willing to stick up for it. Nice cut.
dec
4470 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 11:18 AM
Half of one with the other half of the other. Whats that 5-5 average again? Theres always the 15-16 chance with just maybe only 2-4 to their crib. Next hand please. dec
Andy (muesli64)
1519 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Thursday 11:30 AM
Yes, the boring 5-8. But it might be life saving.
JRCeagle78
652 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Thursday 12:23 PM
The best defensive toss would be 6-8, but being twenty holes behind, that is not the discard of a sane man. As many cribbage players can attest, the words "sane man" and "cribbage player" should never be used in the same sentence. The next logical discard would therefore be 5d-8c and be extremely grateful if the dealer does not have a "terminal" crib to my detriment. I'll lead from my pair and take any pegs that are offered.
Coeurdelion
3838 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 2:57 PM
This is a well-known old chestnut and in this position where we could do with 20/24pts I'll throw the 5-5 with my heart in my mouth and my fingers crossed!
HalscribCLX
3601 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 4:07 PM
At 40-60* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss%s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %___W5 %
5-6-7-7*__11.65+1.46+(-5.85)=7.26____0.4____4.8
5-5-6-7___12.13+1.17+(-6.49)=6.81____0.5____4.9
6-7-7-8___14.83+1.22+(-9.61)=6.44____1.1____6.9

Offense______L4 %___L5 %
5-6-7-7*_____16.9___69.6
5-5-6-7______20.5___71.3
6-7-7-8______27.2___75.3

* unsuited 5-8

5-6-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.45pt but 6-7-7-8 is slightly best for Win %s. However 5-6-7-7 is also very much best for Loss %s so I'll select unsuited 5-8 to discard.

After The J cut I'll lead a 7 and play Offense:

____________Our Pegging Pts.
7________________1.78
6________________1.29
5________________1.18