November 5, 2018
*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
|Total votes: 173|
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Joined: April 2008
Monday 3:11 AM
Not much of a difference between the flush and A-4. Not all flushes have big potential in thy eyes.. so going for the seven or a ten here. dec
Joined: October 2008
Monday 3:24 AM
This is extremely difficult, because whether we decide to Toss 8-8 or Toss A-4 or whether we retain the FLUSH, in all three cases we seem to begin with a 'static' Four Points.
But by stuffing A-4 into our Crib, I think we shall maximize our Crib, since this "Totals Five" discard should beat the rather dull-looking Toss 4-8 by about Two Points.
Also, placing a 'PEAR' of 8 Cards into our Crib does not seem much more inspiring today than the rather prosaic and let's just say 'stoic-looking' Toss 4-8.
And we want to get this thing right, because our POSITION here probably leaves even more to be desired than our Discard Decision! I mean: I got up early for THIS?!
Joined: March 2016
Monday 3:53 AM
It Pays to Flush. I am going with that today.
Joined: August 2009
Monday 4:07 AM
I am going for the double run. We are badly behind.
Joined: June 2013
Monday 4:43 AM
Wishing you all a fun-filled Guy Fawkes night.
Joined: April 2011
Monday 4:58 AM
Forced into an offensive position with my opponent at 67 I’ll keep the 8-8-9 together. With that queen cut it’s now defense to the lead.
Joined: August 2018
Monday 5:04 AM
No idea what the right play is.
Joined: March 2008
Monday 5:19 AM
Who wants lemonade?
Joined: March 2009
Monday 5:55 AM
Dismal situation, I believe we need to try for the double run in this position. We would still need at least 2 more above average hands after that to have a reasonable chance to win.
Joined: January 2018
Monday 7:23 AM
Hmmm. Like JQT said, it was 4 points no matter what, so what to toss? The 4,8 was so uninspiring it didn't matter how much a good flush pays, so 8's or A,4? I kept the A,4 for the magic 11. So while I'm all alone at this juncture, I can justify my choice. And if pone puts a 7 and/or 8 in my crib, which I keep hearing is common, voila.
Joined: December 2017
Monday 9:17 AM
At -8/+7 I aim for best expected average. The flush is an okay hand averaging 6.5 to only 4.5 for this one. But I imagine A-4 is worth over 2 more than 4-8 in crib potential.
I can definitely see the case for the safe flush. The A-4 toss might have the best average but it might leave us with very little. The flush seems more sure with 34 cuts for 6 or more. The keep I went with scores under 6 on 36 cuts and how often have I tossed myself A-4 for only 2-4 points in crib? Still, decided to go with the averages early on third street.
As far as pegging goes, with a fairly mediocre hand we'll probably be playing defense. The flush would probably do better but 8-8-9-J isn't awful.
After the cut I'd definitely play defensively.
Joined: October 2007
Monday 11:55 AM
Three ways to start with 4pts - A-8C-9-J (4-8S), 8-8-9-J (A-4) or A-4-9-J (8-8):
A-8C-9-J: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.83) = 8pts
8-8-9-J: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 7¼pts
A-4-9-J: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.45) = 7¾pts
A-8C-9-J: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999, 10101010, JJJ = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 7/8/9 with 5555, 6666, 7777, 10101010 = 16 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 2pt extra for his nob and the flush = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.
8-8-9-J: Improves with 5555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999, 10101010, JJJ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/10/12pts with 7777, 88, 10101010 = 10 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.
A-4-9-J: Improves with AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.2% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 10101010, JJJ = 17 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.
I think A-4-9-J will peg best of the three hands.
Pone only need 3pts to get into position so averaging 10pt should be well past the positional hole of 70pts. We're well behind so I'll play Offense.
The flush starts with most and also has the extra cuts for the flush (0.20pt). But A-4-9-J has the most cuts for improvement and 17 cuts for 6-8pts which is a tremendous increase from 2pts. It also should peg well According to Schell the starting value is approx. 7½pts so it has to catch up 0.50pt + 0.20pt on the flush. I think it will be close but I'll throw the 8-8.
Joined: October 2007
Monday 11:55 AM
Joined: February 2008
Monday 12:12 PM
At 62*-67 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-4-9-J is best for expected by 0.07pt over the flush and 0.18pt over 8-8-9-J. However 8-8-9-J is best for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. As we're approaching a positional hole halfway through the game and the difference in expected averages is small I'll decide based on Win/Loss %s and select A-4 to discard.
After the Q cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Joined: November 2008
Monday 2:17 PM
Playing an offense strategy This choice offers the better pegging potential. Since holding 8-8, on-dealer just might not find use for 7-9, 7-7, 6-7, A-6 all of which would enhance crib score dramatically. Pairs in a dealer hand often get help in the crib as the mathematical probabilities are skewed in favor of the desired discard. As further example if holding 3-3, discarding same as dealer, n/d just might toss A-2, 2-4, 6-9, or 9-9 as such might not be of value in hand. Besides that when discarding pairs to own crib, there are three cards that might make them work. If holding a pair in hand as dealer for two points, the only card that will help them is the starter card. Up the potential score with such a discard. Note that the combined value in HalscribCLX favors the A-4-9-J. Win and loss percentages are very close, and RAS will play on the lead.