September 13, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
97*-106  ?
41%
28%
26%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 156
dec
6328 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:38 AM
I would love to use the aces for defense but that ace they might have for two might get them even closer or out. Maybe 2-3 is in my future in crib. dec
JQT
4137 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:23 AM
As nice as it might be to peg with those Two Aces, I cannot see placing a PAIR of ugly 9 Cards into our Crib.

And if this were simply a situation in which the Total Hand plus Crib with the MOST could secure the win, then I'd probably send the PAIR of Aces into the box.

But from the POSITION given, we most likely require a more nuanced approach, which is often custom-made for a FLUSH.

The fact is, until we see the Cut, there are too many unknowns here: if we get a good Cut, we should probably hedge during the pegging; if not, we may need to 'snag' a few points.

And I think that a FLUSH gives us the flexibility we may need here to both react to the Cut, and to Pone's cards as well.

Of course, after seeing that 4 Card Cut, I only wish I had sent BOTH of those Aces packing, but who knew? We can still hope for a reasonable Crib, but I'm looking to peg some probably much-needed holes here.
JQT says: We shall move Eleven Holes with certainty, getting us to Hole 108 or better: I'd like to add Two or Three Holes to this, even if it means giving back an equal amount. Risking Six Holes just to get Two is probably a no-no, however, so be selective! I think we could therefore grab an early (15-2) even if it risks giving up a RUN, but I probably do not want to risk pairing the lead card, unless it's an Ace! Let's hope it's an Ace!!
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 4:29 AM
Nice Puzzle james500. We are not going to get where we need to be on the board with this hand. Keep 6 in the hand and 2 in the crib to start?

I always say it pays to Flush. Not 100% sure today.
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 4:53 AM
A-A to my crib might do well, but 6-8-9-9 is too bunched up for my liking. Pone is reasonably close, and a few extra pegs could be costly.

A-A-6-8 might peg well, but 9-9 to my crib, (especially with that 6 and 8 out of circulation), may not do well. Pone won't add a Jack to help form a run upwards either.

The flush starts with the greatest hand score of the three options, and has a wide spread of cards for pegging "manoeuvrability".I really don't like the discard though; There'll be negative delta a'plenty when splitting two pairs and putting half of each in the crib, let alone that there's a helpful 6 and 8 that I know cannot be cut, or that 9+1=10 and Pone won't give me a 5.

I'll simply keep the points, and the crib will have to take care of itself. Ace response to an X lead, from my A-9-6 sixteen:
X(10)-A(11)-5(16)-9(25)-go-6(31/2).
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 5:16 AM
I need 24 to go out, and if I don't do it now, I think I'll lose. Full offence, charge ahead. Hopefully opponent tossed face cards to my crib as the A-A works great with that 4 cut. 6 in the hand, guessing 6-8 in the crib (maybe I was given a T-K?) plus my minimum 1 point for pegging means I peg aggressively. Thinking about leading the 8.
Hillchem says: They lead to us for this one.
wasa says: Good call Hillchem. I need my coffee!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi wasa. Why are you so sure you will lose if you don’t go out now. Pone is at 106. We need to keep him at 116 or less. And with that small pair in our crib and let’s say A 7 cut, we’d be in great shape with first hand show on the next Deal.
wasa says: Hi Inushtuk1. By "now" I was referring to hand, crib, and hand. Yes, I know 26 theory (or 25, 24 etc) but as that is long term average, the whole 2 point hand, 2 point crib appears to occur more often than I'd like. I want to do all I can to move as far down the board as possible. True, I don't want opponent to have enough (now, or to peg out next hand) but I also don't want to be short. Still looks like I need 10 points next hand - don't remember the odds but I believe less than 50% so I want to get to 114 or so before I count.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi wasa. Now I understand. But I like that 4 cut to our crib. I’ll play this hand more conservatively than you is all.
glmccuskey
4076 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Thursday 5:26 AM
When I’m in doubt, like I am here, I flush.
Guest says: Me too, eapecially if it's my crib, and has touching cards like this. See you next week! S:)
cribbagepogo says: Yeah, see you next week, too.
zeke76
1368 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Thursday 5:54 AM
Like glmccuskey, I also was in doubt, so I flushed. We just have to get close and then go out next hand. I tend to think with careful pegging we can get another hand where we score first.

It's a hard puzzle today.
Jazzselke
2570 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 7:22 AM
Great puzzle, 3 ways to hold a combined 8 points. Holding the flush has best potential for the hand, but A9 to the crib is dismal. It also breaks up 2 different pairs. I think one of the pairs needs to go to the crib, so I will choose the aces; too much negative felt a throwing the nines as pointed out by James.
Jazzselke says: ...negative delta...
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 7:27 AM
If I had tossed A-A or 9-9 into the crib, I would have a 6 point hand and a 2 point crib. Thanks to the starter card and the flush in my hand, I have an 8 point hand and a 2 point crib. Hindsight is 20-20.

Keeping the flush gives me a little more flexibility during play. 9-9-8-6 is too bunched up and gives the pone more opportunity to peg. The Ace gives us an escape card to limit his pegging. With the pone needing only 15 points and first count every point on his side of the board is crucial. Since the 4 cut did not help us, we should be aware that it probably helped him.
Inushtuk1
1465 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 8:37 AM
I just can’t justify tossing (A-9). And flushes don’t always peg better defensively as much as you think. What will you do with that flush on a 6-8 lead? Play your escape card, the Ace right? They’ll probably score a (15-2) right there. I’m just not convinced this flush is a safer keep than the 6-8-9-9.
JQT says: Pegging with either popular hand choice today, I think we might start out similarly: After a 6 Card Lead, we play our 9 Card for (15-2); after a 7 Card Lead, we play our 8 Card for (15-2); and, after an 8 Card Lead, I think in either case I might play our 6 Card. This way, it seems we're still in control of the pegging, and worst-case giving up Three to maybe get anywhere from Four up to Six Points in return. Luckily, most of the cards that might 'jam us up' here (with either hand choice) do not seem to 'sync up' well with that 4 Card Cut, so we probably do have some wiggle room during the pegging. Still, it's a very difficult discard decision today!
Guest says: Hi JQT. Interesting choices for your responses to those mid-card leads. I would still play off with my Ace. *Or*, I pair that 6 daring him to trip it, knowing I would likely only pair that 6 if I had a pair myself, like Ras said the other day. If I *did* have the quad, which I don’t, and Pone was still short of game after his triple s/he knows I’d be at hole 111 or 112 if I get last card as well. And this would likely put me out on this deal. Hmmm! That ploy might work as well so that we get two Hols and s/he turns down the triple. On the 7 lead with *my* keep I prefer the suited 9. But let’s not quibble. But I agree it’s a very difficult decision today. James’ puzzles always are. But he really outdid himself this time.
Inushtuk1 says: Oops. Guest is lil ole me; Inushtuk.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 9:26 AM
I'll speak for the minority. I'll keep 6 points in hand, 2 in the crib, and a sweet 16 and hope to stack the Aces in the pegging. 8-6-A-A should peg better offensively than 9-9-8-6- or the flush. Although the flush does have a sweet sixteen also.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 1:54 PM
The flush with A-9 for 8pts or 6-8-9-9 (A-A) for 6 + 2pts:

AS-6-8-9: 8pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.40) = 11½pts

6-8-9-9: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 11¼pts

Potential:

AS-6-8-9: Improves with AA, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 99 = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 12/14pts with AA, 666, 7777, 888, 99 = 14 cuts.

6-8-9-9: Improves with AA, 666, 7777, 888, 99 = 14 cuts = 14/46 = 30.4% up to 12/16pts with 666, 7777, 99 = 9 cuts.

Pegging:

The flush should peg slightly better and be harder to read.

Position:

We're 1pt past positional hole but if Pone scores too well they could be within pegging distance next deal. So I'll play Defense.

Summary:

AS-6-8-9 has more cuts for improvement and more cuts for a good hand although a lower maximum. It also should peg well. I'll throw AD-9.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 1:56 PM
At 97*-106 playing Defense for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
6-8-9-9____8.26+(-2.07)+5.24=11.43____5.9_____44.6
AS-6-8-9__10.15+(-2.09)+3.06=11.12____1.5_____45.8

Defense_______L1 %____L2 %
6-8-9-9_______14.4____49.8
AS-6-8-9______13.7____50.7

6-8-9-9 is 0.31pt better for expected averages and is better for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the critical board position.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Inushtuk1 says: Note how the tightly bunched cards are as safe as the one with the escape card. I don’t see how that’s possible. But there it is according to Mr. CLX