September 11, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
72*-84  ?
76%
18%
3%
0%
Total votes: 176
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:26 AM
Double run keep cut for 16 17 or 20. After cut probably could use some pegs here. dec
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:36 AM
People voting pretty darn early. I'm guessing the consternation here will be between tossing A,7 or A,4. Looking forward to the comments.
dgergens says: Server appears to be on Mountain Time.
Guest says: Why not play both hands?
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:05 AM
A few options to discuss here: A-7 and A-4 certainly, and maybe 5-5 and A-5 also?

Seems I'm the first to choose 6+2=8.

Only the cut of an Ace or 9 won't help this hand (Ace helps the crib though).

Wider spread of cards than the double run should make it easier to escape during the pegging (Pone is not too far from reaching 95 target).
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:05 AM
Double run for me.
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:34 AM
Trailing Pone by a Dozen Points, we may in fact however have a slight Positional Advantage as the Dealer at Hole 72.

Retaining the powerful Double RUN looks like it may be the best way to maintain this very slight advantage, but we have to govern Pone's movement carefully.

Throwing the PAIR of 5 Cards seems too speculative, for while it averages nearly Nine Points in our Crib, it does so by wildly fluctuating amounts.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:59 AM
A cut of a 3-4-5 still gets us 12-12-14 points plus we get the A-4 in the crib and more flexibility in the pegging.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:21 AM
With pone at 84 and me 23 away from next CPZ and 9 points guaranteed with only the 9 not helping, I want what glmccluustey wants. Pegging flexibility. Under different relative positions, I might go the other way. But today, am in the minority but feel vindication coming on.
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:48 AM
Thought about the 5-5 in crib but knowing my luck would be stuck with 2 point hand, 2 point crib. Double run appears to be the obvious choice here.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:03 AM
Never break a double run, padawan
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:03 AM
See the value in holding 3577, but in this case I will hold 3455; too much potential to give up IMO.
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:54 AM
This toss/keep has the most crib and hand potential. I’m not too concerned about the pegging flexibility. I may need to peg offensively if I miss my cut

As it is I have only 13 known points, with little hope in my crib. I’ll peg offensively to grab the first two points. I must jump on that X-card lead for the (15-2). And then hope s/he does not pair it. Now what do I do if my 5 is paired? I’ve reached my target of 86. Do I trip it and risk quads? Or play into a run with my 3? I’ll trip ‘the light fantastic’. The odds are in my favor. Gulp.
wasa says: I'm sure RAS can give us the stats, but I recall reading (Barlow? DeLynn?) that the odds of a quad are so low it is always (?) good to triple. Then again, quads may give the game away (I personally would always triple).
Inushtuk1 says: Hi wasa. I agree. But like you said above”...but knowing my luck...”. ; - )
JQT says: Early in a game, especially when we're not struggling as much to either achieve or maintain position, 'playing the odds' often works well for us, and therefore we may be correct in assuming those rather low odds of our Opponent holding and playing a "case" card during the pegging. But when we are at or near the 'par' holes, I think it's not only better, but also sometimes easier, to simply ask ourselves, "Do we *need* the points?" Starting off as Dealer today at Hole 72, we'd like to 'keep pace' and "hit our marks" which means achieving an 'average' Hand plus Crib plus Pegging of about Sixteen Points, and since we already know of Thirteen Points prior to the pegging, I would gladly take a (15-2) or a PAIR here, but then I might hesitate at grabbing that TRIPLE for Six Holes, while risking that we give up a Dozen Holes in return. The fact is, we sure could use those first Two Points pegged for certain, however; we probably don't absolutely need those additional Six Points. NOT taking Six Holes, when offered, is one of the more difficult pegging plays to enact, because the odds of our Opponent having the "case" card are indeed very low, but in a close positional struggle, such self-control is often warranted. This might not be the best example of when we need to lay off and exercise such self-control, but we're probably not too far from the margins here, and I would guess that we should at least consider 'laying off' since we really don't require those extra points at this juncture. Thoughts or Ideas?
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. But today’s alternative of playing into a run is not attractive either.
Inushtuk1 says: I guess what I’m saying is *sometimes* the triple is the defensive play. But probably not here.
Ras2829 says: Good discussion above as to taking a triple whenever it shows. I don't skip many of them although there are some that have a high percentage of 12 points. Often if a six lead or seven lead is paired it's because the dealer is holding 6-6 or 7-7. If not holding the pair, would be more inclined to score the 15-2 on either of those leads and generally has the cards to do that. Let position be the guide. I suppose although have not recorded this aspect that I skip one of ten chances to triple for six pegs. Often that is on a 6 or 7 being paired. And most of those I avoid are on fourth street as have witnessed many games over the years turned from wins to losses on the back of quads. If you don't need six, seems not to do anything for your position, the card that would have scored the 6 peg points often garners two later in a pegging sequence. That's my take on it. Skip a few and be particularly wary of the 6-7 lead when paired. Sometimes six pegs has greater value to the player than does giving up the 12 pegs for the quad. If that is your determination, take the six.
zeke76
1367 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:47 AM
I can see the logic of other tosses, but I don't think I get enough improvement from the crib or pegging to justify breaking up the double run.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:51 AM
As dealer there are a very small number of discard combinations worth sacrifice of points in hand. The A-4 is not on that short list. If you would like to learn more about sacrifice limits as dealer and to which discard choices they apply, email ras29@outlook.com any old time. My opponent here needs to deal form 4th street CPZ 95-99. That's a stretch needing 11. So will choose a defense strategy and play off the lead. Think one would also be in bounds to choose optimal. As dealer have a guaranteed peg, 12 points in hand and ? in crib. We know of 13 points for sure which would put us at hole 85. So I will proceed with caution. As JQT points out, given the averages, th0ough 12 points down, dealer here has a slight positional advantage. Will protect that? Will that A-7 reach its average of 4.051 with that Queen on the deck?
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Ras.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:56 PM
The double-run, or 5-5 to crib or perhaps A-4?:

3-4-5-5: 8pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.85) = 11¾pts

A-3-4-7: 2pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 10¾pts

3-5-5-7: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 11¼pts

Potential:

3-4-5-5: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 42 = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17/20pts with 2222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777 + 16xXs = 35 cuts.

A-3-4-7: Improves with AAA, 333, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 36 cuts = 32/46 = 78.3% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 333, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 = 20 cuts.

3-5-5-7: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 10/12pts with 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777 + 16xXs = 31 cuts.

Pegging:

Of the 3 hands I think A-3-4-7 will peg best with lower cards and a magic eleven.

Position:

We're 2pts past positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Summary:

3-4-5-5 starts with 1/1½pts more than the other two, has most cuts for improvement and the best maximum. It may not peg as well as A-3-4-7 but I'll throw A-7.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:45 PM
At 72*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
3-4-5-5___12.52+(-2.26)+3.56=13.82____27.0____40.3
3-5-5-7____9.78+(-2.13)+5.35=13.00____22.6____36.9
A-3-4-7____4.91+(-2.13)+8.73=11.51____17.3____29.1
3-4-5-7____8.22+(-2.11)+5.33=11.44____17.5____31.2

Defense________L3 %____L4 %
3-4-5-5________41.6____47.2
3-5-5-7________43.1____51.9
A-3-4-7________47.1____61.8
3-4-5-7________45.7____59.2

3-4-5-5 is best for expected averages by 0.82pt and is very much better for Win %s and Loss %s so I'll select A-7 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.