August 10, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
45*-58  ?
50%
20%
18%
2%
2%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 139
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:21 AM
A-A might also do well, but even one Ace works well with 6-7-8, and a 5 Card always spices up our Crib.
Guest says: I like the aces in the crib.gives me a chance for a double run.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:37 AM
Peggers and fifteens to fill with a nickel in the crib. Offense. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 4:45 AM
Nice one james500. Prefer a 5 in the crib. This hand has the probability for a higher maximum of 16 points. Still drawn to tossing A-A and keeping the hand that increases with every cut even though th maximum is 14 points.
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 5:08 AM
Baa-Baa. Following the herd today. Nice cut. I feel smart for some reason.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 5:45 AM
A-A, As-5 or Ad-8 all seem reasonable options here. I'll try A-6-7-8 (A-8) with its escape card if needed, and potential 6-7 five card trap for the second time around:

X(10)-8(18)-X(28)-A(29)-go/1,
X(10)-7(17)-5(22)-6(28/2+1).
james500 says: That final score should of course be 28/3 (5-6-7 run), + 1 for the last card = 4.
Jazzselke says: Your throw is A5, correct; not A8?
james500 says: Hi Dan. You're quite right, a second typo from me today. Typed on my phone rather than laptop. Sorry for any confusion caused.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 5:45 AM
What Rosemarie says. Actually I am never crazy about A5 or AA; in this case I would prefer the A5.But A5 is my least favorite combination with a 5-spot.
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Friday 6:04 AM
With non dealer at 58 will have to peg carefully.
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Friday 6:50 AM
I agree with all of the above. I want the 5 in my crib.
Inushtuk1
1487 votes

Joined: July 2016
Friday 8:45 AM
Me too. And a possible crib flush.

We will be Pone beyond our goal of 59/60. Defense to the lead.

Pone would keep the flush though.
Hillchem
2911 votes

Joined: April 2015
 
 
 
Friday 10:31 AM
I kept the black ace because I thought I would be more likely to fake a flush in hand than to get a crib flush.
JQT says: I do this myself, but usually only when playing "at or above my weight" (a.k.a. an Equal-or-Better Opponent Playing Strength). Most 'casual' players frankly don't observe card suits at all during the pegging, so this tactic is best reserved for those highly-skilled opponents. Against such, the Fake Flush can indeed secure more points than the rare Crib Flush will garner over time, and do so reliably, at about a three-to-two clip. (Your Mileage Will Vary)
Guest says: I've had this guilty feeling a few times when talking to friends about higher level strategies. I tell them to look for the flush in their opponents hands during pegging. Then immediately tell them that people can now fake a flush on them.
Guest says: Hillchem
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 1:59 PM
Based on my scant empirical data, holding the longer run ought to have a greater value by about .4 of a point with the flush pulling up in third spot. Opponent is likely to be dealing from the middle of nowhere if picks up the non-dealer average of 9-10 points. With a need to deal from 2nd street CPZ 43-47, I'm right in the middle of the zone and would like to be around the corner to deal. With the 8 cut for 14 points, a known two in the crib, and that guaranteed dealer peg, know RAS will be at minimum of 62. So after thinking def. def., will upshift to optimal pegging strategy. Who knows, just might be able to reach 65-66.
Ras2829 says: The favorable cut should add several points to my percentage of winning this game. Of course, I get to count as non-dealer when well around the corner with a need to deal from 3rd street CPX 69-73.
Ras2829 says: Had you not heard of the CPX Theory?
Guest says: That's Ras's Theory. Rosemarie44
Ras2829 says: Am sorry - read scores as 45*-48. Couldn't understand defense as the ultimate choice. After a closer look and seeing that opponent had 58, it's def., def., def., hold the A-6-7-8 and discard A-5. Very sorry as none of the above makes much sense, only in my mistaken initial assessment.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 2:50 PM
I think its between 5-6-7-8 (A-A), A-6-7-8 (AS-5) and AS-5-6-7 (A-8):

5-6-7-8: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 11¼pts

A-6-7-8: 7pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.45) = 12½pts

AS-5-6-7: 7pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = 10¾pts

Potential:

5-6-7-8: Improves with AA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/10/12/14pts with 2222, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts.

A-6-7-8: Improves with AA, 2222, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 10/13/14/16pts with AA, 2222, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 19 cuts.

AS-5-6-7: Improves with AA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 10/11/12/14pts with AA, 2222, 4444, 555, 666, 888, 9999 = 23 cuts. Plus 9 spades for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pts.

Pegging:

The flush will peg well and A-6-7-8 and 5-6-7-8.

Position:

We're in the 2nd street CPZ but opponent only needs 12pts to reach 3rd street positional hole so I'll play Defense to try to hold them back.

Summary:

The flush has good potential with guaranteed improvement and 23 cuts for 10-14pts but it has a ½/1¾pts lower starting value. 5-6-7-8 also has guaranteed improvement and 24 cuts 9-14pts but starts with 1¼pts less than A-6-7-8. So although A-6-7-8 only has 22 cuts for improvement it has the best maximum at 16pts and 19 cuts for 10-16pts. We often talk about negative delta but in this case as we do not see any tenth cards dealt to us or 9s then I think there will be some positive delta to the A-5 discard and I'll go with this.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:07 PM
At 45*-58 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
A-6-7-8___9.39+(-2.11)+5.44=12.72____22.6____32.6
5-6-7-8___9.65+(-2.15)+5.16=12.66____23.5____32.5
AS-5-6-7_10.80+(-1.93)+3.44=12.31____21.5____31.0
A-A-6-8___7.80+(-2.20)+5.91=11.51____18.7____28.6

Defense_______L5 %____L6 %
A-6-7-8_______42.6____52.6
5-6-7-8_______43.8____52.6
AS-5-6-7______44.7____54.7
A-A-6-8_______43.6____57.5

A-6-7-8 is best by 0.06pt and is slightly best for Loss %s. 5-6-7-8 is slightly best for Win %s and both of these take account of the critical board position. As I'm recommending a Defense strategy I'll select AS-5 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play a Safe strategy to the lead.