August 9, 2018
*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
|Total votes: 160|
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Joined: April 2008
Thursday 3:13 AM
Effective discard with decent lead card the three. Dozen possibility with seven cards. dec
Joined: March 2016
Thursday 3:21 AM
Good one, acis1. First hand pone would dictate offense: Start with 5 vs. 4 points and a hand which has more cuts for improvement over tossing 8-T to dealer. It is up to Hal?
Joined: March 2009
Thursday 3:40 AM
Good peggers, no sure points or adjoining cards to opponent.
Joined: October 2008
Thursday 3:41 AM
Tempting to hold the 8-9-T RUN with the 5 Card, but can it be worth just one extra point to give the main connector PAIR of Treys away?
Joined: June 2013
Thursday 4:40 AM
Three card eleven:
Joined: March 2008
Thursday 4:44 AM
I dont want to give away the store for meager points. I'll hedge.
Joined: July 2016
Thursday 6:02 AM
Hey, I’m not giving away a pair of key connectors two days in a row! That was hard enough on my heart yesterday. But seriously;why give away two points to gain only one here? Both 3-3-5-9 and 5-8-9-10 have a maximum of 12 points. The 5-8-9-10 has only *one* more cut for improvement if my math is correct.
What to lead? The suited 3 from my three-card Magic Eleven? Or the 9? It wasn’t long ago Ras said, when you can hold two or three cards with a value of 5 or less, and can keep an 8,9, or an X-pointer, you should keep the mid-card, all else being equal; and lead that 8 or 9 in preference to the X-pointer. The fact that our three small cards add up to eleven probably trumps that strategy today. But leading the 3 probably ends up with a (31-2) at best. Leading the 9 *might* do slightly better. Thus with Dealer holding X-X-X-X: 9(9)-X(19)-3((22)-GO-3(25-2)-5(30-1). Or if Dealer is holding 5-X-X-X it may go thus: 9(9)-X(19)-3(22)-5(27)-3(30-1)/ X(10)-5(15-2). But I’d probably settle for the suited three lead like the majority here would.
What if the score was 107-110*? Would you dare to keep 3-3-5-8(910); starting with only two points, but the only chance to score the 14 specific points needed to go out with first hand show? Or would you keep 3-3-5-9, which I believe has more cuts for 12, and hope to peg the remaining two?
Joined: December 2017
Thursday 10:47 AM
In this position with this hand I would play "cautious offense" and lead the 3. Magic 11 as already pointed out, and most people are more likely to pair your lead early in the game.
Joined: October 2007
Thursday 2:13 PM
I think its between 3-3-5-9 (8-10) and 5-8-9-10 (3-3):
3-3-5-9: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 5.10) = -¾pts
5-8-9-10: 5pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -1½pts
3-3-5-9: Improves with AAAA, 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 84.8% up to 8/12pts with 33, 4444, 7777, 999 = 13 cuts.
5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 555, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 16 cuts.
3-3-5-9 should peg better with three low cards and a high card and a 3-card magic eleven.
As First Pone we'll play Offense and try for positional hole of 18pts.
3-3-5-9 has a starting value ¾pt more than 5-8-9-10 and although 5-8-9-10 has slightly more cuts for improvemet and more for 8-12pts. As 3-3-5-9 will also peg better and there will be some negative delta with 8-10 as we hold a 9. So I'll go with the 8-10 throw.
Joined: February 2008
Thursday 2:16 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Offense___Hand_Pegs___Crib__Total___W9 %____W10 %
Offense______L9 %____L10 %
3-3-5-9 is 0.48pt better than 3-3-5-10 for exprcted averages and 0.99pt better than 5-8-9-10. 5-8-9-10 is slightly better for Win %s but 3-3-5-9 is considerably lower for chances of Losing. So I'll select 8-10 to discard.
After the J cut I'll lead the 9 and play Offense:
Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
Joined: November 2008
Thursday 2:36 PM
Opening hand of the game it's off, off, off. for me. Will lead the 9 as am concerned with offensive pegging. If choosing a defensive pegging strategy, would have led the 3s. Will take any pegs offered. The 3-card 11 works very well for non-dealer and is a major reason that holding the 5-89-10 is the third best choice.
For those who have followed my comments over the years, you already know that RAS considers Hal, REX, and the Cribbage Prof to be the toughest opponents that I face in live or electronic play. All were designed by a genius by the name of Hal Mueller. It is truly amazing what he has built into these programs. Have been playing 1,000 game series with one of those cribbage tutorial programs for decades (does 20 years fit in that framework?). My initial goal in those series was to win by 30 games. I now shoot for a 70 win margin. Have never reached an edge of 80 games although have ended up with 72-74 wins a few times.
In the present series, we have completed 742 games with alternating deals. Want to share some of that data with you at this point. All games played are played at the Lifemaster level, maximum speed, no errors, and no hints. Of these 742 games, RAS has won 390 (226 as dealer and 164 as non-dealer. The Prof has won 205 as dealer and 147 as non-dealer. So at this point, I am winning 53% of games played. That leaves 47% for the Prof. What else can I tell from these figures? I win 58% of games played when I have the opening deal. and win 42% when not having the opening deal. That 16 point spread is the difference reported by most who have played large number of games in live or electronic play and recorded the results. We each have scored 66 skunk wins. Skunk wins are 3-4 times more likely when having the opening deal.
Although it seems to me that Cribbage Prof has higher-scoring hands than I do, we average 8.3 as dealer and 8.5 as non-dealer. Is that a surprise? No, even in live play I assume my opponent scores more big hands than I do. Not so when I record 1,000 samples. Both those figures are higher than what De Lynn Colvert assigns as hand size for dealer and non-delaer (8.1 and 7.9 respectively). RAS holds flushes 15% more frequently than does the Prof.
Pegging I match the Prof as dealer and we average 3.5 pegs per deal. As non-dealer , RAS consistently out-pegs the Prof. In this series of 742 games, the Prof averages 2.1 pegs as non-dealer and RAS scores 2.3. Where do the differences lie? I score 20% more 15-2’s and 10% more 31-2’s. Ironically it would seem if I am scoring more 15-2’s, it would seem that I would give up more three card runs to opponent in the pegging. Not so and I peg runs 20% more frequently than does the Prof and have 20% more points from runs than does the Prof.