Wednesday 3:19 AM

24 chances to get that extra point. Nine lead . Its all about the crib now. dec

   

Wednesday 5:04 AM

Ah,2h,4h,5555,666,999,TTTT = 17 cuts for 5+.
Some negative delta having split two pairs.

Doubly nice cut, helps me but not necessarily the Dealer. 4 lead.

   

Wednesday 5:17 AM

I need to play my position first. I’ll lead a four and peg it defensively.

   

Wednesday 6:55 AM

Looks like I'm the only one so far admitting to 6-J. Out of all the cards, it is lowest expected crib. Defense until my crib!

   

Wednesday 7:06 AM

Internet outage statewide this morning. This hand has the most cuts for improvement. Toss the jacks. Dealer could be around 109 next hand as pone to peg and count out first! Defense.

   

Wednesday 7:20 AM

Five card cut insurance. Good cut for us. But I’m worried s/he may have a double run in the crib. I’ll play cautious offense to make sure I’m dealing a bit deeper in my CPZ. The 4 lead leaves me with three different ranks for my next play, and the five card trap is still an option. But I won’t trip his/her 4 response at this score. Play away with the 9. Keep 4-6 intact.

   

Wednesday 9:06 AM

Definitely NOT the sort of hand you want at this position. I shot for best expected averages and believe I hit it. I will play total D after the cut, lead the 4.

   

Wednesday 10:21 AM

If I wasn't going to blow up my hand, I really really felt 9,6 was the safest thing to put in pone's crib. But 4,4,J,J just looked so restricting for the pegging battle, and I was feeling lucky. I don't think pone put anything in his crib complement 2 Jacks. I thought I would be alone again today, putting 2 J's in opponent's crib. Pleasantly surprised.

   

Wednesday 3:04 PM

In a recent 'live' game, I tossed the two Jacks, and I suspected that it cost me the game.

But can it be improved upon with either Toss 6-J or perhaps even Toss 4-9?

I've often stated that it's usually NOT a good idea to stare at your hand for too long in Cribbage and then toss your BEST TWO CARDS 'over the board's into your Opponent's Crib!

And with a 50% whack at His Nobs, aren't those two Jacks our BEST CARDS here?

I'll defer to Mr. RAS and Prof. Mueller today.

   

Wednesday 3:07 PM

I think if we play Defense its between 4-4-9-JH (6-JD), 4-6-J-J (4-9) and 4D-6-9-JD (4C-JH) whilst if we play Offense its holding 4pts with 4-4-6-9 (J-J), 4-4-J-J (6-9) and 6-9-J-J (4-4):

4-4-9-JH: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.57) = -2½pts

4-6-J-J: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.68) = -2¾pts

4D-6-9-JD: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = -2¾pts

4-4-6-9: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.42) = -2¼pts

4-4-J-J: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -2¼pts

6-9-J-J: 4pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = -2½pts

Potential:

4-4-9-JH: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 999, 10101010, JJ = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 5/6pts with AAAA, 2222, 44, 10101010 = 14 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

4-6-J-J: Improves with AAAA, 44, 5555, 666, 999, JJ = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 6/11pts with AAAA, 5555, JJ = 10 cuts. Plus 11 hearts and 11 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 22/46 = 0.48pt.

4D-6-9-JD: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 999, 10101010, JJ = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 5/6/9pts with 5555, 666, 999, 10101010 = 14 cuts. Plus 11 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

4-4-6-9: Improves with 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 999 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 8/14pts with 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 999 = 16 cuts.

4-4-J-J: Improves with AAAA, 44, 5555, 7777, JJ = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 8/12pts with AAAA, 44, 5555, JJ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 hearts and 11 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 22/46 = 0.48pt.

6-9-J-J: Improves with 5555, 666, 999, 10101010, JJ = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 8/10pts with all cuts. Plus 11 hearts and 11 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 22/46 = 0.48pt.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 4-4-J-J will peg best and playing Offense perhaps 4-4-6-9.

Position:

At 89pts we need 32pts to get out which may be achievable over two deals with three takes and two lots of pegging. If not we will have a chance to peg out on the third deal. But we must prevent opponent going out first take next deal. They are already 3pts short of position I'll try to hold them back by playing Defense.

Summary:

Holding 2pts I think 4-6-J-J is best. Holding 4pts I think 4-4-6-9. 4-4-6-9 has a starting value ½pt better than 4-6-J-J but this it makes up with the potential for his nob. As I prefer a Defense strategy I'll go with 4-9 to opponent's crib.

   

Wednesday 3:28 PM

Dealer is two holes short of 4th street CPZ (95-99) and I need 6 points minimum to be there for the up coming deal. Sop it's off. off., opt After seeing the starter card and knowing that I have 8 points shifting down a gear as to pegging strategy. Think holding four points needing six minimum is the starting point. As Inustuk1 points out, if dealer pairs my four lead, will not triple as 12 points on this leg of the journey would destroy my chances to win. If you have looked at these six cards an decided to play four points, here are the averages when discarded to opponent. The 6-9 average is 6.204 (421); 4-4 averages 6.000 (144); and J-J average is 5.642 (165). Why such a difference when all three combinations start with two points. Only one set of X-pointers (J-Q) are in the ten most frequent discards made by dealer to own crib. The other nine are small cards or mid-cards which are neighbors to the 4-4 and 6-9 choices.

   

Wednesday 4:33 PM

At 89-93* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W2 %____W3 %
4-4-J-J___6.04+(-2.50)+(-6.02)=(-2.48)_____7.3____30.7
4-4-9-J___4.07+(-2.24)+(-4.40)=(-2.57)_____3.9____30.3
4-4-6-J___4.50+(-2.17)+(-4.95)=(-2.62)_____7.5____29.3
4-4-9-J___4.07+(-2.24)+(-4.45)=(-2.62)_____3.9____30.3
4-4-6-9___6.26+(-2.43)+(-6.62)=(-2.79)____10.0____31.9
4-6-J-J___4.13+(-2.85)+(-4.47)=(-3.19)_____5.2____29.2
6-9-J-J___6.04+(-2.85)+(-6.44)=(-3.25)_____7.9____30.4
4-6-9-J___4.15+(-2.80)+(-4.65)=(-3.30)_____4.8____30.4

Defense________L2 %____L3 %
4-4-J-J________35.3____62.7
4-4-9-J________26.3____62.6
4-4-6-J________30.6____63.0
4-4-9-J________26.3____62.6
4-4-6-9________38.0____60.8
4-6-J-J________28.1____63.7
6-9-J-J________38.8____63.3
4-6-9-J________28.9____62.7

4-4-J-J is best for expected averages by 0.09pt but 4-4-6-9 is best for Win %s although its not best for Loss %s because of the risk of the J-J. Both Win %s and Loss % take account of the board position at this critical stage so I'll select J-J to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead a 4 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead____________Net Pegging Pts.
4____________________(-0.76)
9____________________(-1.27)
6____________________(-1.48)