August 6, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
92-96*  ?
52%
39%
4%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 153
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:13 AM
Almost threw K-10 but wanted a little more offensive potential here so defense with defense,pegging and maybe some ping action. Four lead here. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 3:16 AM
Toss the low scoring T-K to dealer and keep the peggers. Hand has a 3 card eleven.
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 3:20 AM
Same approach as yesterday; two points and a defensive discard, rather than four points.

4 lead covered by A/7 in my hand.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:19 AM
I went for K-10. Had I had a decent hand, I would have kept the points.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 5:59 AM
Only 6 or 9 cuts do not help the hand. Also good pegging cards; if you lead the 4, only a 6 or 9 response by the opponent prevents you from scoring on your second play.
wasa
3013 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Monday 6:55 AM
Kept a great pegging hand and tossed the (mathematically) lowest scoring cards to opponent's crib. Not the cut I was hoping for.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 7:10 AM
As RAS said yesterday: holding such cards as A-3-4-7, we are still likely to get 6, 7, or 8 points, enough to attain our desired position.

Meanwhile, even after the 5 Card Cut, Dealer's Crib probably gets no more help from Toss T-K than from the perhaps more dangerous Toss 3-7.

Therefore, even if I knew a 5 Card was going to be the Cut, I believe Toss T-K is still the safest discard today.
dgergens says: What is dangerous about the 3,7? The Liam discard analyzer says the crib average is only 1.1 points more, but the max is 20 vs 14 if you discard 10,K.
JQT says: Remember: the average, by definition, is the actual result expected. And that extra one point in that average is enough to boost the Dealer's winning chances significantly. An average (also by definition) includes all possible maximums. A maximum tells us what *could* happen, where as the average tells us what (over time, and with enough samples) *will* happen.
JQT says: Let's use a typical hole in golf as an example: the maximum number of strokes, while (unlike Cribbage) it may fluctuate, let's say is nine or ten; the minimum meanwhile could be a "hole in one." However, the expected value or "average" (or in golf what's known as 'par') might be three strokes for this hole. Three strokes is what we "expect" a competent golfer to require. Even with just ONE attempt at this hole, we 'expect' it to take an "average" or 'par' of three strokes to finish. And during a busy weekend tournament, we might see one minimum occur, two or three maximums, and meanwhile, hundreds and hundreds of averages. That is why it gets defined as a 'Par Three,' because it is the expected average.
JQT says: Incidentally, I really admire your process for "playing this game," in that you do so without first looking at other players' choices or outputs from the various automated tools. This I believe *will* serve to make you a better Cribbage Player in the long run.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Monday 10:58 AM
So, I always make my choice first, of my own volition, before looking at any tools or others' choices. Disregarding the popular choice, if I match any of the advanced regulars here, I'm satisfied I'm 'getting it'. But today, I stand alone (with the regular posters, the voters are roughly split on this). So I went over to Liam Brown discard analyzer to get a breakdown on the choices. While discarding 10,K is the recommendation, and 3,7 is the 'aggressive' move, because the average numbers fall out that way, I don't find the numbers overly compelling; that 3,7 is CLEARLY the WRONG choice. So I will stand alone today without compunction.
dgergens says: https://cliambrown.com/cribbage/?data=AH3C4D7STCKHN
Guest says: Tommy two times !
Inushtuk1
1481 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Monday 12:18 PM
A sub-par crib here could give us the game. Agree with James’ 4 card lead.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 2:24 PM
Got to be looking for A-2-5-7 as in yesterday's puzzle, A-3-4-7 as in todays, or A-3-5-6. In hands with those sets of four, a low scoring discard is often available (10-K, 9-K, 9-Q, 6-K, etc.) In this case today the 10-K is one of two discard choices that average less than 4.0 points. The 10-K is 1/91 and scores two points or less 45.494%. Yeah dealer might put a five in crib. As much as dealer would like to do so, it is seldom possible as that five works with A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6, 5-5, 6-7, and all those X-pointers.
Ras2829 says: BTW the potential low scoring crib and increased pegging potential more than offsets the loss of two points in hand score. Combined value can be figured in a general way. Combined value is peg points +/- dependent on choice of strategy, and value of crib +/- dependent on placement.If not trying to do that, pay close attention to HalscribCLX analysis, and you'll get a feel for potential peg values, hand score,and crib value.
Ras2829 says: Of course, add the potential hand value to peg and crib values +/-.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 2:53 PM
Its between A-3-4-7 (10-K) and A-4-10-K (3-7):

A-3-4-7: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts

A-4-10-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.01) = -1pts

Potential:

A-3-4-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 = 24 cuts.

A-4-10-K: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 101010, KKK = 16 cuts.

Pegging:

A-3-4-7 should peg much better than A-4-10-K with 3 low cards and a middle card and a 2-card and 3-card magic elevens.

Position:

Opponent is already in position and if they score 16pts they will odds-on to score out next deal. I'll play Defense to try to hold them back.

Summary:

A-4-10-K has a 1pt higher starting value but A-3-4-7 has many more cuts for improvement and 24 for 6-8pts. Also it will peg much better plus in this position the lower scoring 10-K I believe is the correct strategy so I'll throw the 10-K.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:41 PM
At 92-96* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total____W2 %____W3 %
A-3-4-7___5.04+(-2.72)+(-4.06)=(-1.74)___17.8___36.9
A-4-10-K__6.00+(-2.96)=(-4.96)=(-1.92)___16.1___34.4

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
A-3-4-7_______45.1____54.8
A-4-10-K______46.1____58.0

A-3-4-7 is better for expected averages and is appreciably better for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position which is at a critical stage.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3___________________(-2.15)
4___________________(-2.18)
A___________________(-2.26)
7___________________(-2.51)