May 14, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
13-4*  ?
41%
24%
9%
8%
6%
5%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 144
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Monday 3:05 AM
I am not about to hold 4 points and toss 6-9 to dealer. Going with a balking 9-Q and holding 2 points to start. Expected averages are a min of 2 points to maximum of 10 and expected average hand of 4.70 points. With the 4 cut we have 10 points and are not giving much to opponent.
Guest says: Must have been asleep when I typed my comments this morning. Add to toss 6-9 to dealer "also I am not holding 2 points with the hand that I chose and toss 6-9".
Guest says: Sorry, redundant. Should be clear now what I am not going to do today.
james500
3894 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 3:11 AM
Q-6 or Q-9 I think, rather than 6-9.
4 lead from 4-A-6 eleven may lead to 15/2 and 31/2.
JQT
4135 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:20 AM
It's still very early in this game, and Toss (6 9) is a relatively safe way to throw Two Points.

Yes, the Dealer's most popular discard is indeed Toss (7 8), but that's being measured against ninety other discards.

There are still lots of Ten Cards remaining in that deck to be Cut, as well as Aces and 4 Cards, Twenty Cuts in fact to give us anything from Six Points on up to a Full Dozen!
JQT says: Since all Ten Cards form either a PAIR or a RUN, and since I forgot to include 5 Cards in my calculation, it's actually closer to Twenty-Four Cuts that produce Eight Points or more.
JQT says: Let's say Dealer does attain his/her average and score Sixteen Points, or even more. This makes it all the more important I think that we exceed the First Street 'Par' Hole by a sufficient amount. If we hold fewer than Four Points in our hand today, we risk not making it beyond Hole18, our *minimal* target. The further we can drive ourselves into and beyond the Critical Position Zone, the better, and Toss (6 9), while risky in many other situations, should insure this crucial goal for us in this position.
dec
6326 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:54 AM
Lets try to burry them here. defense. what par will they need after this hand? dec
Gougie00
5701 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:43 AM
Defensive hedge
Jazzselke
2568 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Monday 6:19 AM
The type of hand we see quite often. This highlights a discussion I hear sometimes : strict defense as first dealer at the beginning of the game; or do not play position until around Hole 45? In this particular case I choose the former with the opponent having such a bad start.
Guest says: I'm against you today as mentor Shimp taught me to never be afraid to toss 6-9 nor 9-9. I tossed 6-9 S :) See you Thursday!
Guest says: I'm with S:) on this one. See you Thursday. Gary
Guest says: Hey Gary! I didn't know you were heading this way--that's great. We'll have to do Sadie Hawkins team together. Oh, you too Jazzman lol. Reminds me that I need to make for sheet for it. Certain women--including me-- have gome crazy over this side pool option S:)
Guest says: gone*
cribbagepogo says: Be nice if you logged in.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Monday 8:38 AM
The lesser of 3 evils. Historically I'v played pedal to the metal, maximize that hand, and here I would have to give my opponent one good pair, JQ, 4A, or 96. This site has taught/caused me to give my discards consideration, w/ regard to the upside potential for my opponent, a little more weight in the decision process. However, I'm still surprised how many people give it A LOT of consideration to the point where it's more important to NOT let them have points than it is to make points (end game notwithstanding). So, it was never an option to keep 4,6,J,A and only get two points. And in the end, even though I gave opponent 2 points with the 96, I felt that was a safer discard than 4,A
dgergens says: or J,Q. I'll consider my choice vindicated as I'm in good company with JQT.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Monday 10:01 AM
If I am going to toss 9-6 to the dealer it is best to be done on first street rather than fourth street. There are still plenty of X-cards available. With the 4h starter card and 2 pegging points I will get to hole 25 on my deal. A cautious offensive strategy may limit the dealer and give me a more advantageous position.
Inushtuk1
1463 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Monday 11:28 AM
I’d rather risk being slightly short as next dealer than letting our opponent back in the game.

I could have had 10 the other way. But I did manage to score 8. All while tossing the fourth lowest discard possible. As Ras mentioned the other day. there are only 6 discards to the opponent’s crib that are worth 2 points or less; more than 40% of the time. This is one of them. The third best as it happens.

Knowing I’ll be dealing at the very end of my CPZ, in the worst case scenario I’ll continue pegging defensively with the 4 lead. Dumping my A on a 7, 8, 9 response. On the X-card response other than the J, again I’ll play my Ace and take that (15-2). Not sure whether the Ace or the J is best if Dealer plays a J. I think Ras mentioned in the *old* videos that taking the (15-2) was best with only two small cards, and taking the pair was best with three small cards in the hand. But his examples were slightly different on the videos than what I hold today. And it could be good to be rid of that J too. I’ll wait for Ras’s comment.
Inushtuk1 says: Oups! I just went back, and this time *carefully* reread James’ post. I’m referring to the part about the A-4-6 three-card “Magic Eleven”. I better dump my Ace on *all* X-card responses. Duhh!
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 1:26 PM
A-4-J-Q (6-9) and A-4-6-J (9-Q):

A-4-J-Q: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -2¼pts

A-4-6-J: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = -2pts

Potential:

A-4-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 19 cuts. Plus 12 clubs for 1pts extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

A-4-6-J: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 666, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 6/8/9pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 101010 = 13 cuts. Plus 12 clubs for 1pts extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Pegging:

I think A-4-6-J will peg better as it has 3 low cards and one high card plus a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

It looks as if this is Deal 2 and opponent got off to a poor start. Nevertheless I'll carry on playing Defense.

Summary:

A-4-6-J has a ¼pt better starting value and has more cyts for improvement although fewer to a lower maximum. Also A-4-6-J should peg well playing Defense. Playing Defense I'll throw the 9-Q.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:10 PM
At 13-4* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W8 %____W9 %
A-4-6-J___4.70+(-2.65)+(-4.07)=(-2.02)____24.7____47.4
A-4-9-J___4.70+(-2.61)+(-4.15)=(-2.06)____23.8____46.8
A-4-J-Q___6.78+(-3.11)+(-6.10)=(-2.43)____28.0____49.8

Defense_______L8 %____L9 %
A-4-6-J_______11.7____19.6
A-4-9-J_______11.2____19.6
A-4-J-Q_______14.2____19.9

A-4-6-J is only 0.04pt better than A-4-9-J nut is 0.46pt better than A-4-J-Q. Although A-4-J-Q is best for Win % its not the best for Loss %s. Surprisingly, perhaps, A-4-9-J is very slightly lower for Loss %s despite 6-Q being less safe. So as its very early in the game I'll place most emphasis on the expected averages and select 9-Q to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Defense:

Lead_________ Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4___________________(-2.02)
A___________________(-2.06)
6___________________(-2.48)
J___________________(-2.52)
Ras2829
5124 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 5:47 PM
The 9-Q has such low scoring potential to opponent crib that A-4-6-J for two points is preferable. With that 4 starter card, n/d knows that eight points have ben scored. Playing defense lead the four spot, dump the Ace next play if that looks feasible. Even better if we score 15-2 with dealer holding 5-X-X-X or 5-5-X-X or similar. If playing offense would have led the Ace which allows keeping 4-6 intact. Note that A-4-J-Q ranks third in combined value of the choices today. With opponent scoring only 4 points as non-dealer of first hand, it's def., def., def. for me. With a known 8 points on this hand, RAS will have good positional advantage for upcoming deal. Fine puzzle acis1!
Ras2829 says: BTW 6-9 averages 6.204 (421) and 9-9 averages 6.519 (206) to opponent crib based on my empirical data. When discards average more than 6 points, it's a clear indication that many times they are scoring more than six points. So let's take a look at the discarding profiles for 6-9 scores 2 points 23.5%, scores 3-7 51.487%, tallies 8-11 19.323%, and reaches 12 or more 5.69%. So what does the 9-9 look like? The 9-9 scores two points 30.732%, tallies 3-7 42.057%, scores 8-11 21.367%, and reaches 12 or more 5.844%. Note HalscribCLX analysis and the cribbot gives the 6-9 to opponent an average of 6.10. Those are strong numbers (neither does as well on own side of the board) since the most frequent discard made by dealer is 7-8. And you might have to wait for weeks to get the 7-8 discard from opponent to your crib. Like all aspects of the games the results on dealer/non-dealer side of the board are dramatically different. Don't be lulled into complacency regarding mid-card discards to opponent as they score two points so often when tossed to own. Why not expect the same when tossed over there?
Inushtuk1 says: Because they hate putting 2 mid-cards in our crib. With regards to yesterday’s puzzle. Here’s another one. 2-2-3-3-6-6. Best to keep 6 starting points not 10. Can you think of a few more?
Inushtuk1 says: Dealer should keep 2-2-3-3(6-6). Not 3-3-6-6(2-2(.