May 12, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
109-102*  ?
34%
33%
27%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 121
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:09 AM
I went for defense here. Three lead thinking dealer might back off on the pegging. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:25 AM
Agree with dec, balk the crib with 9-Q worth only 2 points in opponent's crib most of the time. Dealer could be around 118 with a really good hand and crib next hand as pone.
This hand adds up to a "sweet sixteen" and has a 2 card eleven.

james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:38 AM
I see the flush, but I'll choose 9-Q also. 3-4 seems far too risky here.
The cut of a 2 or 3 increases my hand to 8 points; a 4,7, or 8 to 6 points.
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:16 AM
No combination gives me 12 so I'll poison the crib. I may have played myself into a close loss.
Guest says: " I'll poison the crib." Any time its opponents crib always do that.
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 5:11 AM
Nice cut. I’ll lead the four and take reasonably safe pegs. I don’t necessarily need to go out this hand. I just need to get close enough to peg out next hand.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:59 AM
At THIS POSITION, and with THESE CARDS, we should look for the SAFEST DISCARD.

Our goal before the Cut should be to get CLOSE ENOUGH to go out pegging as Next Dealer.

This would require us to get to Hole 117 or beyond, which the Cut (surprise!) has *already done* for us.

But since we now only need to peg Four Points, we might be prudent to take these holes now, during This Deal, *if* they come to us without too much danger.

What we don't want to do however is come up One Point Shy after having given up a half a dozen or more 'easy' pegs to the Dealer.

I might just lead the Ace.
Inushtuk1 says: A(1)-5(6)-4(10)-X(20)-8(28)-GO-3(31-2). Is that the idea? As dec said, dealer might back off on the pegging, and not take the run if s/he had the cards on your 4.
JQT says: An Ace Lead allows us to score (and get half way toward VICTORY) after about thirty-one replies (222, 333, 444, 6666, 888, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK), but scoring after anything *except* those latter fifteen Ten Cards is probably too dangerous. But if the Dealer has (5 X X X), we could maybe 'stumble' our way to the Finish Line. Or, we might do as you have suggested. We should be in good shape however, as long as we peg One or Two Holes here, and do so while generally Playing Off.
Inushtuk1
1487 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 8:06 AM
I’m with the usual suspects. And leading my 4. All 4 cards make a “Sweet Sixteen”. But we’re not likely to get both the (15-2) *and* the (31-2). If we score the (15-2) Dealer is not likely to dump his 5 at that point. But still, it would be nice.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 11:15 AM
My logic was correct, looking for safest discard, but I don't have the discard tables memorized that you guys do. So I thought A,Q was pretty safe, and went with that to keep the touching 8,9.
Inushtuk1 says: Cool. And you have another “Sweet Sixteen”. Thus: ((9)-X(19)-4(23)-5((28)-3((31-5). But it’s harder to draw an X-card from a 9 lead than from an 8. And s/he may disappoint you with something other than a 5 at the count of (23). Might be safer at this score to just forget the “Sweet Sixteen”, and play: 8(8)-X-(18)-9(27)-GO-4(31-2). But those are your cards, not mine. I’ll let you decide.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi again dgergens. Looking further into your choice, I see that 3-4-8-9 improves on every cut but (AAA, plus 15xX’s). The slightly more popular A-3-4-8 improves on every cut but (999). And (Q-9) is still better than (A-Q), despite the negative delta of you holding a 4. But I hope you can pull off that 5 card trap. You could lead the 8 and score (30-4) also. but you risk Delaer playing a 7.
james500 says: Hiya Dgergens, hope you're having a nice weekend thus far. I, like you, don't have any discard tables memorised, always impressed by those who have. I take the view that there are five different ways that discards can score in a crib: 1. Multiples of a kind, 2. 15/2, 3. Runs, 4. Flushes, 5. The right Jack, and so long as you discard combinations of cards to your opponent that are unlikely/impossible to fall into any of these categories, then the discard should be fairly safe. It stands to reason that an unsuited X card-middle card combo (K-6 or K-8 for instance), which does not include a pair, has a sum greater than 15 so cannot work together to score 15/2, has cards too far apart to be part of the same run, cannot form a flush as unsuited, and does not include a Jack, should have a high likelihood of balking a crib.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 12:41 PM
A straight choice between the flush and A-3-4-8? A tricky decision as we would at least like to get close enough to peg out next deal. On the other hand we want to be defensive enough not to let Dealer get out this deal or get too close for next deal:

A-8-9-Q: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.96) = -1¾pts

A-3-4-8: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = -2pts

Potential:

A-8-9-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 10101010, QQQ = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 7/8/9pts with 5555, 6666, 7777, 10101010 = 16 cuts. Plus 9 hearts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-3-4-8: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 5/6/8pts with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 7777, 888 = 21 cuts.

Pegging:

A-3-4-8 should peg well with 3 low cards and a high card but pegging Defensively the flush, I think, will be better and hard to read.

Summary:

The flush is only ¼pt better for starting value but does have the extra 0.2pt for heart cuts. Although the flush has fewer cuts for improvement and less cuts for an average hand but it has a better maximum and 12 cuts for 8/9pts. So I'll risk the 3-4 toss.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 1:54 PM
At 109-102* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging
the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Net
Optimal___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total____W1 %___W2 %
A-3-4-8___5.00+(-0.52)+(-4.21)= 0.27_____8.1___31.2
A-8-9-Q___6.24+(-1.31)+(-5.75)=(-0.83)___10.6___30.0

Optimal_______L1 %___L2 %
A-3-4-8_______18.5___61.6
A-8-9-Q_______19.0___74.3

A-3-4-8 is best for expected averages by 1.10pt and although the flush is slightly better for Win %s A-3-4-8 is very much better for Loss %s. So I'll select the 9-Q to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
4_________________1.97
A_________________1.85
8_________________1.78
3_________________1.33
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:51 PM
With dealer needing 19 points to win, will choose that low scoring 9-Q as a discard, peg optimally as the deuce gives me 8 points, lead a four, score 15-2 if either a X-pointer or 8 spot played on the four offering. Think dealer will be playing off as knows has first count on next deal. So can't expect much help from dealer on pegging unless has a hand similar to mine. How does that 9-Q stack up with the A-Q? The 9-Q averages 4.120 (1,672) 4/91, scores two or less 42.224%, scores 3-7 44.898%, tallies 8-11 11.483%, and scores 12 or more 1.495%. The numbers for the A-Q benefit from the second most frequent discard made by dealer (2-3). The A-Q average is 4.236 (2,633) 9/91,scores two or less 36.232%, scores 3-7 46.299%, tallies 8-11 15.229%, and reaches 12 or more 2.24%. BTW there are only six discard choices to opponent that score 2 or fewer points in excess of 40%. What might they be?
Ras2829 says: BTW 69% made a choice different from the above.
Guest says: Hi Ras: my notes say: 6-K, 10-K, Q-K, 9-Q, 10-Q and 6-Q. Rosemarie44. Note: I even have a second group of discards in the same category as the previous list.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. They would be; K-10, Q-K, 9-Q, 6-K, the always surprising to *me* 10-Q, and 6-Q.
Ras2829 says: Hi Rosemarie44 and Inustuk1: You folks are sharp enough to educate me! Frankly, some tell me you don't have to be very sharp to give me a real lesson. There are a few more that do quite well from 38% to just less than 40% in the 0-2 range. They look like these: 9-K, 8-K, 6-10, 7-K, 4-K, 4-Q, and 4-10. The last three interested me in particular till I figured that the Ace was the last of the small cards that dealer would toss to own crib accounting for these to score 2 or less very frequently.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Ras: I can only speak for myself but if you call me "sharp" it is because of you and your teaching on CHOD site.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. I believe I have seen the Prof pair the 8 response to the 4 lead from these cards. And that at an optimal score BTW. Perhaps the idea was to keep the A-3 intact to catch a stray deuce. I guess you don’t agree with that tactic on optimal. I can’t say I’ve ever tried it. I would just take the “safer” (15-2) with my 3. But perhaps that 8 was a covered play by the Dealer. Well it could have been covered with both another 8, or a 3. Hard to know which is best. But if our 8 is tripped, we recoup 2 of the points with our 3(31-2).