April 16, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
72*-87  ?
37%
28%
23%
6%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 151
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:02 AM
I think Toss (3 5) and the FLUSH will do better for us than either Toss (5 7) or Toss (3 3), although we may be in a tough position.
JQT says: Toss (6 9)? Only if we had no FLUSH today would I consider going there...
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:07 AM
I believe the priority is make both hands work to the max. Maybe a loose 3-6 in the crib we really need that 90 plus badly. Hopefully we can afford not to engage in any pegging here. dec
Guest says: Two things: we are way behind and opponent will be well past 95, which means we are I serious trouble. I choice a different route that no one else chose. I tossed the 6,9 in my crib and kept the 3,3,5,7. Got a lucky cut which gives me 14 in the hand and at least two in the crib. Do not see anyone considering this. Did you?
Guest says: yes. Could be trying to avoid a skunk.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Guest. Why are you so sure our opponent will be well past 95? Our position calls for a solid defense in order to keep “the bad guy” from reaching 95/96. The flush that dec is holding will be hard to read, and could shut the Pone out in the pegging. And hopefully we dealt him/her a “dog’s breakfast”. You sure hit your hand all right. But like dec said, he may have 14 in his crib with those two key connectors there. The (6-9) is often only worth 2.
horus93 says: I can totally see the rationale of 6-9. We're pretty seriously behind and it gives us the best odds of a barnburner, which is just what you got today. May well have the best win% for all I know, look forward to seeing halscrib's analysis.
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 4:28 AM
Three reasonable options to choose between, 33,57 or the flush, (with another 3 and a 6 out of circulation, I don't think that 9-3d is a 4th).

Discarding 3-3 means every cut will help my hand to 7+, and the crib is guaranteed to be worth at least two.

6 response to an X lead. If another X is played I score 31/2 with my 5, if paired I score 31/2 with my 9.
james500 says: Oops, 3357 (69) is a good option too. How I wish for that edit function that JQT mentioned recently.
JQT says: Yeah, it's unusual these days not being able to edit a response, but I'm not so sure it's a bad thing on a site devoted to Cribbage. After all, the game itself allows no take-backs. As far as Toss (6 9) to our Own Crib is concerned, I am not too fond of it, although it might compete with the other available discards today. I'd much rather get that 5 Card, along with virtually *any other card* into Our Crib. Toss (6 9) as the Dealer can often be tantamount to being kind of a "Poison Discard" (now please, whatever you do: don't anyone go quoting me on this! ; - )
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Monday 4:42 AM
I think it is between 3-5 and 6-9. It pays to Flush. We'll see if that is the case today. We are really behind and the cut doesn't help us.
wasa says: Always look on the bright side. The cut gives us at least 3 in the crib!
Rosemarie44 says: Yes, wasa, I forgot to mention that in my comments. I did see it but the coffee didn't kick in this morning. Where is your vote?
wasa says: I don't always comment, but I try to vote every day. I always like a 5 in my crib, and as I've learned over the years "it pays to flush".
Guest says: Xectkar. Kopma
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:55 AM
My gut reaction is to toss myself the 33. I see the flush and the 35 to the crib is tempting. I like the small run, and its pegging potential. Besides all that, my gut says the pone tossed me 2Q.

I need to be at hole 95 at the end of this deal. Get on that horse and ride!

Mother Nature is off her meds again. There is an inch of snow on the ground. My cat is confused and refuses to go outside. Pseudo holiday here in Massachusetts.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Monday 8:27 AM
As much as I respect the geniuses here sharing their collective Cribbage wisdom, I can't agree that the flush is the best hand. Not even close.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi dgergens, we geniuses (if I may include myself, all though less experienced than some) sometimes analysis requires looking at both expected hand and crib values. But in no way am I suggesting that you vote or are require to agree with any other contributor on the page. Each and everyone does have a certain method of deciding on hand retention and discarding.
wasa says: I always ponder what would I do on my own, then I check my decision on C. Liam Brown's awesome website https://cliambrown.com/cribbage/
Inushtuk1 says: Hi dgergens. I ain’t no genius. I don’t even talk too good. But can you explain to us why you chose to keep it this way. I chose the flush because of better defensive pegging. I’ve got four different ranks of card to your three. And the (3-5) is the third best one star toss according to Ras. The (6-9) is an also ran. See Schell’s article entitled “Discarding to your crib” for further details. But your the big genius as far as the hand is concerned today I must admit. But I’m sure that Ras’s empirical data will show that (6-9) has a higher average of two point cribs compared to (3-5). And the (3-5), with *two* key connectors will have a much higher %age of hands worth 8, or 12 or more compared to (6-9). That’s all I got. Like I said, I ain’t no genius. Best wishes, Inush.
JQT says: We'll have to see what Halscrib does after 'crunching' the numbers today. Keep (3 3 5 7) does extremely well after about a Dozen Cuts, and my guess is that if Toss (6 9) is best, it's because of the HAND and not so much the Crib. Meanwhile, the FLUSH, while not boosted quite as much in many cases, does get fairly well 'fortified' by about Fifteen Cuts, and I believe that Toss (3 5) should produce a measurably-better Crib Value. But I think the most astounding thing is that dgergens has reached Sixty-Nine Votes on a day when selecting Toss (6 9), which does seem like a positive omen! And lo and behold: he got his 4 Card Cut! We won't argue with success!
Inushtuk1 says: Never argue with a man when he’s right.
dgergens says: That must be it, I was subliminally drawn to the the 69.
Inushtuk1 says: Perhaps that also explains why I get so many “19” hands.
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Monday 9:15 AM
The Puzzle Master is at it again. Great puzzle. I don’t see why some are so “down” on our position here. Yeah, we’re behind by 15 points, but it’s *our* crib. This game is not over by a long shot. Play defense here and keep the opponent from reaching his next objective of 95/96, and with any luck we have regained the advantage. The flush just may do that, and those two key connectors in the box bode well for us.

I’ll continue on defense after the cut. Taking the (15-2) on a 6 or 9 lead, but otherwise laying off. No 7 on the 8 lead here. I would prefer to avoid any run pegging wars if possible.

I think James and Greg’s 5-6-7-9(3-3) is a very close second though.

The weather is absolutely vile. But no pseudo holiday here. Not that it matters. I’m retired anyway.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Monday 10:30 AM
I liked the looks of this flush, and checking my work it does indeed have the best expected average, and, more importantly, will not be bad on defense.

This is a critical deal. Pone will probably win if he gets around 96. We must play as defensively as possible.
horus93 says: Though a worse hand would have forced me to play on to have any chance at all, of course. Schell's shorthand is a rule of thumb, you have to consider the actual prospects of your hand rather than abstract averages.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Monday 1:01 PM
I like 6-9 also.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 3:20 PM
The hands that stand out are the flush, 5-6-7-9 (3-3) and 3-3-5-7 (6-9):

3D-6-7-9: 6pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 12pts

5-6-7-9: 5pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 10¾pts

3-3-5-7: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 11¼pts

Potential:

3D-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 33, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 22 cuts = 47.8% up to 10/11/12pts with 33, 555, 666, 8888, 999 = 15 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

5-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 20 cuts.

3-3-5-7: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/12/14pts with 33, 4444, 555, 666, 777 = 15 cuts.

Pegs:

The flush should peg well but with a 3-card magic eleven and more low cards so will 3-3-5-7.

Position:

We're in the 3rd street CPZ but Pone is also in position and only needs 9pts to reach 4th street positional hole. I'll play Defense to try to hold them back.

Summary:

3-3-5-7 is ¾pt lower than the flush and 5-6-7-9 is 1¼pt lower for starting value. However both have many more cuts for improvement and 5-6-7-9 has 20 cuts for 8-12pts while 3-3-5-7 has 15 cuts for 9-15pts. As 3-3-5-7 starts with only ¾pt less than the flush, has the best maximum and should peg better I think this hand will have the best chance of overtaking the flush. So I'll throw the 6-9.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:37 PM
At 72*-87 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Defense
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
3D-6-7-9__8.17+(-2.20)+5.95=11.92____17.9____22.2
3-3-5-7___9.11+(-2.43)+5.00=11.68____18.0____22.8
5-6-7-9___8.11+(-2.22)+5.65=11.54____18.8____22.7

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
3D-6-7-9______59.8____70.9
3-3-5-7_______58.7____70.0
5-6-7-9_______59.0____69.9

The flush is best for expected averages by 0.24pt over 3-3-5-7 but in this critical board position both 5-6-7-9 and 3-3-5-7 are both better for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. 5-6-7-9 is slightly better for Win %s and 3-3-5-7 for Loss %s but as 3-3-5-7 is better for expected averages by 0.14pt I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Inushtuk1 says: dgergens and Andy win. Pure...genius!