March 11, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
0-0*  ?
51%
24%
18%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 118
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:17 AM
Not much sleep last night for the weary-eyed.

Toss (8 8) is safer than Toss (5 J)!

Lead the 5 Card, Live-Large for a change...
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:26 AM
Play thy position. Ten lead. dec
Inushtuk1 says: “Play thy position.” Now you’re writing like Billy Shakespeare. I *like* it. : - )
Guest says: B illy ?
Inushtuk1 says: No, not B illy. Billy!
Guest says: actually Sir John dec
Inushtuk1 says: You got me.
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 4:27 AM
Agree with JQT. Hand has more chances for improvement and starts at 7 points.
Rosemarie44 says: Agree with dec also. His comments were not showing at the time of my submission.
Guest says: Hhmmmmmm
polynumeral
4507 votes

Joined: December 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 6:18 AM
Maybe it's regional but 8,8 here always seems to be more detrimental than an X,5 toss where x=10. I can appreciate the philosophy that the previous posters have alluded to as I did consider the choice they made. I will be very interested in the analysis todayn( I am always a sideline spectator and always very interested but today just that little bit more so).
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 6:29 AM
In agreement with those above me. Plenty of helpful cuts for 5-9-T-J, and plenty of time to recover should 8-8 hurt us.

On another topic altogether, I succumbed to the hype and fanfare last night and saw the Academy Award winning, "The shape of water". It wasn't terrible, but I don't see what all the fuss is about. Certainly not as emotionally affecting as some audiences have claimed.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 8:11 AM
8-8 is probably safer than 5-J, I'm not thrilled but I think this is best.

Cautious offense to the cut.

I like JQT's idea of leading the 5 - ~50/50 shot of recouping any points and it preserves our 9-T-J.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 8:23 AM
I'll hold the double run
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 8:37 AM
I certainly like 8-8 vs 5-J.
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 9:16 AM
I’m not giving my opponent two key connectors to start with one more point.

By all means lead that 5. Roughly 50/50 chance of recouping the two points like horus93 mentioned; and if Dealer lays off the 5 s/he will often reply with an Ace, or a 9; both of which allow us to draw first blood.
bbaer1
3664 votes

Joined: February 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 9:19 AM
Lots of board left in case things go awry here. On the other hand, could have the lead after this hand if I cut into it.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 9:31 AM
Many short comments today say all that needs to be said. Hold 5-9-10-J, discard those scary eights, lead the five. Seems to me the five is the better lead whether choosing an offense or defense pegging strategy. BTW based on scant empirical evidence the 5-J discard choice would fall into third spot with the 5-8-9-10 claiming second ranking. Interesting puzzle this day!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Interesting comment about leading the 5 even on defense. I would prefer to lead my 10, breaking up the run as per your videos and notes. And then on the logical 5 reply dumping my J. But I will experiment wth the 5 lead.
Gougie00 says: My yoda, Al Miller, taught me to never bust up a double-run. Sort of a paradox today.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1. Leading the five does a number of things than I like in defense. First I am rid of the card so easily trapped by the dealer with 3-4, 4-6, 5-5, 6-7 and besides if leading the 10 spot am tempted to pair the five for count of 20 playing offense here as opening non-dealer.
Inushtuk1 says: Two good points.
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: You can't go too far astray following the advice of Al Miller. Having said that, there are numerous double runs the non dealer should not play and more than just a few that dealer should avoid as well.
Hillchem
2890 votes

Joined: April 2015

 
 
 
Sunday 9:49 AM
I think I learned something today. At first glance, I would have tossed 8-J, or maybe even 5-J. However after looking at the averages, put me in the 8-8 category. Thanks james500!
Inushtuk1 says: Ditto.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 2:21 PM
The two likely choices are 5-9-10-J (8-8) and 5-8-9-10 (8S-J) but I'll look at 8-8-9-10 (5-J) for comparison:

5-9-10-J: 7pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 6.82) = ¼pt

5-8-9-10: 5pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.59) = ¼pt

8-8-9-10: 8pts - 8pts (Schell: 7.76) = 0pt

Potential:

5-9-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 88, 999 + 14xxs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12/13/14pts with 555, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 555, 7777, 88, 999, JJJ = 15 cuts.

8-8-9-10: Improves with 555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999, 101010, JJJ = 22 cuts 22/46 = 47.8% up to 14/15/16pts = with 7777, 88, 999, 101010, JJJ = 15 cuts.

Pegging:

The better peggers will be 5-9-10-J and 5-8-9-10 and should be similar.

Position:

At the starting position as Pone I'll be playing Offense as normally.

Summary:

5-9-10-J and 5-8-9-10 have the same starting value and while 5-8-9-10 has more cuts 5-9-10-J has the better maximum. 5-9-10-J also has the benefit of the J for a chance of his nob. As the pegging will be similar I'll chance the 8-8 and take the Offense.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:11 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs___Crib__Total___W9 %____W10 %
5-9-10-J__9.67+1.30+(-6.07)=4.90____30.3____25.4
5-8D-9-10_7.59+1.33+(-4.25)=4.67____25.7____25.2
8-8-9-10_10.30+1.28+(-7.86)=3.72____31.0____23.1

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
5-9-10-J_____41.6____50.3
5-8D-9-10____36.4____49.2
8-8-9-10_____45.6____53.3

5-9-10-J is 0.23pt better for expected averages and is best for Win %s and second best to 5-8-9-10 for Loss %s as 8-8 is riskier than 8-J. So I'll select the 8-8 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead the 5 and play Offense:

Lead______________Our Pegging Pts.
5______________________1.43
J______________________1.21
9______________________1.19
10_____________________1.17
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 3:55 PM
I think this is perhaps a good exanple of a hand where my statement that 'the best discard is the best discard' can be explained.

The expected average for the hand can be calculated and so for any particular 4 cards is fixed. The static expected value for the discard is fixeed dependant on which set of discard tables is used. Therefore the sum total or net difference (on whose crib it is) must be fixed. This makes no allowance for pegging efficiency of the hand, what strategy is adopted (board position) or any allowance for negative/positive delta. The very fact that Anthony Myers can list the best throws from all 18,395 hands (ignoring suit) in his book Crbbage Discards is testament to this fact. Of course in some cases the second best may be very close and the factors mentioned above may cause you to decide on an alternative throw. But that is a matter of judgement.

For this scenario 5-8-8-9-10-J Anthony Myers lists 8-J as the best discard. This is because using Schell's Discard table the results are:

5-9-10-J: 9.67 - 6.82 = 2.85

5-8-9-10: 7.59 - 4.59 = 3.00

With Ras's figures this becomes:

5-9-10-J: 9.67 - 7.91 = 1.76

5-8-9-10: 7.59 - 4.57 = 3.02

An even larger difference.

For these two keeps the difference in pegging is not large. The main differences are that in this board position we are playing Offense and also negative delta plays a part in both discards.

In summary, as I've always maintained - the cards don't know what strategy you want to adopt and the Best Discard is the Best Discard! Quite often you will be playing Offense for the pegging but choosing a Defensive discard and vice-versa. I freely admit that you might not want to choose this throw for all the above reasons or even personal preference but it does not alter the fact.
Ras2829 says: Hi Coeurdelion: Very compelling and leaves little room for debate.