Tuesday 3:16 AM

I know that Ras says "It Pays to Flush" but I am choosing 2 points in the hand and 2 points in the crib. Every cut improves the value of the hand as it does with tossing A-9. This choice is higher in expected averages by only 0.32 points.

Tuesday 4:28 AM

Nice cut lol. I prefer the 6-9 throw as it should yield more points and also I like two aces for pegging.

Tuesday 4:47 AM

I'll try keeping the A-A-4 together. A choice then to keep the 9 with them, or put it into the crib with my 6?

Tuesday 4:49 AM

To me there are four viable selections. I do like flushes but that seems to minimal gain and pegging traps. Keeping four points with a 3-4 which might be a good defensive keep at the end of a game. 3-6 also which you could hit eight to a dozen with a few cuts. Last choice to me work 6-9 with all those face cards left. Hopefully play off with a four and peg with the remaining cards. dec

Tuesday 5:19 AM

With non dealer at 30 I want an escape card in the pegging. Wouldn’t want to contend with a 2 or 3 lead with A-A-3-4.

Tuesday 5:54 AM

Nothing jumps out as obvious. I'll hold the flush.

Tuesday 6:21 AM

"Triple nickels" with a face card cut as talked about last month. Not convinced it's the best throw; other thought is AA69 and toss 34; could easily get in the aces for 4 points. Not crazy about 36 or A9.

Tuesday 8:04 AM

Gotta love those “Triple nickels”. The flush and (A-9) is too balking to my crib. The same goes for (3-6). That’s how I would play it as the Pone. That leaves my choice; and A-A-6-9(3-4). Not a bad crib choice in the (3-4), but it leaves too little hand potential. A-A-3-4(6-9) it is then with its higher expected average.

Still Gary raises a good point about a 2 or a 3 lead. JQT has mentioned before about the safety in numbers theory. Let’s hope that’s the case today. If Pone *does* lead a 2, the best I can do is play my 4(6). If s/he plays a 3(9-3) I’ll pair the 3(12-2), and hope that stops the bleeding. If Pone leads a 3, I’ll dump my suited A. If Pone takes the run I’ll show him/her the other A. Just playing the odds, and hoping for the best.

Tuesday 9:29 AM

I would go for A-A-3-4 at many other positions but here I don't think it's worth the risk of running up the score during the play. Pone only needs ~14 points to get into position, we have room to be a little defensive here.

Tuesday 9:49 AM

I realize the allure of Toss (6 9) here, and in fact it might indeed be *The Best Thing We Can Do* (TBTWCD).

However, unlike perhaps several (or it appears many) others today, I really dislike Toss (6 9) to my Own Crib.

In fact, I dislike Toss (6 9) nearly as much as I dislike retaining that FLUSH today. I'm just not liking anything lately, it seems.

By not throwing Toss (6 9), this saves me that later need for false-disappointment and the contrived indignation that goes with the reality we face when Pone of course doesn't throw us Toss (7 8).

I'm often quite fond of the Toss (3 4) and Toss (6 7) Twins, and also of their very close cousin, Toss (J Q), as all of these can easily be found amongst a tightly-knit-group 'just making it' into the Top Third of Dealer Discards club.

Therefore, I'll be different and stow Toss (3 4) into my Crib today, and try to remain optimistic, which is especially easy all of a sudden after that redeeming Deuce Cut!

Tuesday 2:01 PM

Several possibilities? The flush discarding (AS-9S), A-A-4-9 (3-6), A-A-3-4 (6-9) and A-A-6-9 (3-4):

AC-3-4-6: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.40) = 7½pts

A-A-4-9: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 8pts

A-A-3-4: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 7¼pts

A-A-6-9: 4pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 9pts

Potential:

AC-3-4-6: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/12pts with AA, 2222, 444, 5555, 666, 8888 = 20 cuts.

A-A-4-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 444, 5555, 666, 999 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/12pts with AA, 444, 5555, 999 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

A-A-3-4: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/8/10pts with AA, 2222, 5555, 7777 + 16xXs = 30 cuts.

A-A-6-9: Improves with AA, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8pts with AA, 5555, 666, 8888, 999 = 16 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg quite well but perhaps the flush and A-A-3-4 will peg best.

Position:

We have a small lead but also positional advantage so I'll play Defense.

Summary:

Both the flush and A-A-3-4 are guaranteed to increase and have approximately the same starting value. A-A-3-4 has 20 cuts for 8-10pts (2222 +16xXs) which is a tremendous improvement from 2pts so I'll throw the 6-9.

Tuesday 2:37 PM

At 34*-30 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W6 %____W7 %
A-A-3-4___6.26+(-2.24)+5.10=9.12____13.9____36.1
AC-3-4-6__7.59+(-2.00)+3.14=8.73____12.6____35.1
A-A-4-9___6.91+(-2.39)+3.62=8.14____11.9____34.7
A-A-6-9___5.70+(-2.26)+4.68=8.12____12.4____36.2

Defense______L6 %____L7 %
A-A-3-4______12.9____32.9
AC-3-4-6_____12.4____32.7
A-A-4-9______11.8____32.1
A-A-6-9______10.7____30.1

A-A-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.39pt and is slightly best for Win %s. A-A-6-9 is lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Tuesday 3:02 PM

The key is the triple nickel and the discard that is sure to score in the crib. Don't believe many would toss A-A 5.507 (1,209)or A-4 5.416 (1,771)which will start with a crib of two and have higher crib values than does the 6-9 5.114 (2,590). After the deuce cut, knowing that I have ten points, guaranteed peg, and two sure points in crib, will play def. If a small card is led would pair an Ace, would play the four spot on a deuce, would play the Ac on trey lead, and would pair a four lead. With four small cards and another on the deck, opponent is likely to be playing large cards (mid-X pointers). With most hands these cards will do well in peg avoidance. Note in HalscribCLX of the four hands shown only A-3-4-6 flush does better at peg avoidance. Thanks for the input on this puzzle.

Tuesday 9:28 PM

Flush is ahead by 1%