February 13, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
34*-30  ?
37%
37%
36%
36%
9%
9%
8%
8%
6%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 146
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2240 votes)

Tuesday 3:16 AM
I know that Ras says "It Pays to Flush" but I am choosing 2 points in the hand and 2 points in the crib. Every cut improves the value of the hand as it does with tossing A-9. This choice is higher in expected averages by only 0.32 points.
Rosemarie44 says: Expected averages: average expected hand plus crib value. Pegging points have not been added into results.
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2340 votes)

Tuesday 4:28 AM
Nice cut lol. I prefer the 6-9 throw as it should yield more points and also I like two aces for pegging.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4345 votes)

Tuesday 4:47 AM
I'll try keeping the A-A-4 together. A choice then to keep the 9 with them, or put it into the crib with my 6?
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6855 votes)

Tuesday 4:49 AM
To me there are four viable selections. I do like flushes but that seems to minimal gain and pegging traps. Keeping four points with a 3-4 which might be a good defensive keep at the end of a game. 3-6 also which you could hit eight to a dozen with a few cuts. Last choice to me work 6-9 with all those face cards left. Hopefully play off with a four and peg with the remaining cards. dec
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4483 votes)

Tuesday 5:19 AM
With non dealer at 30 I want an escape card in the pegging. Wouldn’t want to contend with a 2 or 3 lead with A-A-3-4.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6171 votes)

Tuesday 5:54 AM
Nothing jumps out as obvious. I'll hold the flush.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2865 votes)

Tuesday 6:21 AM
"Triple nickels" with a face card cut as talked about last month. Not convinced it's the best throw; other thought is AA69 and toss 34; could easily get in the aces for 4 points. Not crazy about 36 or A9.
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1833 votes)

Tuesday 8:04 AM
Gotta love those “Triple nickels”. The flush and (A-9) is too balking to my crib. The same goes for (3-6). That’s how I would play it as the Pone. That leaves my choice; and A-A-6-9(3-4). Not a bad crib choice in the (3-4), but it leaves too little hand potential. A-A-3-4(6-9) it is then with its higher expected average.

Still Gary raises a good point about a 2 or a 3 lead. JQT has mentioned before about the safety in numbers theory. Let’s hope that’s the case today. If Pone *does* lead a 2, the best I can do is play my 4(6). If s/he plays a 3(9-3) I’ll pair the 3(12-2), and hope that stops the bleeding. If Pone leads a 3, I’ll dump my suited A. If Pone takes the run I’ll show him/her the other A. Just playing the odds, and hoping for the best.
horus93

Joined: December 2017 (1330 votes)

Tuesday 9:29 AM
I would go for A-A-3-4 at many other positions but here I don't think it's worth the risk of running up the score during the play. Pone only needs ~14 points to get into position, we have room to be a little defensive here.
horus93 says: Then again, A-3-4-6 probably isn't that much better, I don't really know.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi horus93. So am I to assume you kept the flush for slightly better defensive pegging?
Guest says: That was my thinking yeah, and especially considering the flush is not that much worse for expected averages as it is.
Inushtuk1 says: Thank you.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4516 votes)

Tuesday 9:49 AM
I realize the allure of Toss (6 9) here, and in fact it might indeed be *The Best Thing We Can Do* (TBTWCD).

However, unlike perhaps several (or it appears many) others today, I really dislike Toss (6 9) to my Own Crib.

In fact, I dislike Toss (6 9) nearly as much as I dislike retaining that FLUSH today. I'm just not liking anything lately, it seems.

By not throwing Toss (6 9), this saves me that later need for false-disappointment and the contrived indignation that goes with the reality we face when Pone of course doesn't throw us Toss (7 8).

I'm often quite fond of the Toss (3 4) and Toss (6 7) Twins, and also of their very close cousin, Toss (J Q), as all of these can easily be found amongst a tightly-knit-group 'just making it' into the Top Third of Dealer Discards club.

Therefore, I'll be different and stow Toss (3 4) into my Crib today, and try to remain optimistic, which is especially easy all of a sudden after that redeeming Deuce Cut!
JQT says: Ooh, I'm in the 10% crowd! This means I am probably wrong today ... or at best, innovative. But in Cribbage, as in Life Itself, we plod onward, because: It's not so much that we succeed in life, but that we continue to fail in good spirits!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. On the 9 lead will you dump the suited Ace or take the low lying fruit?
Inushtuk1 says: Good spirits! Oh yeah!
JQT says: Yeah, I'd hit that! A low-hanging (15-2) fruit tastes best! I'm not afraid to play counter to either ancient or modern 'trends' in Cribbage: Note that Keep (A A 6 9) has both a three-card "Sweet Sixteen" as well as a three-card "Magic Eleven" contained within it. Therefore, I'll try to respond to any lead within the three cards that comprise the aforementioned arrangements. Thankfully, today this allows for *any* of the four cards, at least to start with as our first reply.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Tuesday 2:01 PM
Several possibilities? The flush discarding (AS-9S), A-A-4-9 (3-6), A-A-3-4 (6-9) and A-A-6-9 (3-4):

AC-3-4-6: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.40) = 7½pts

A-A-4-9: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 8pts

A-A-3-4: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 7¼pts

A-A-6-9: 4pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 9pts

Potential:

AC-3-4-6: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/12pts with AA, 2222, 444, 5555, 666, 8888 = 20 cuts.

A-A-4-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 444, 5555, 666, 999 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/12pts with AA, 444, 5555, 999 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

A-A-3-4: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/8/10pts with AA, 2222, 5555, 7777 + 16xXs = 30 cuts.

A-A-6-9: Improves with AA, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8pts with AA, 5555, 666, 8888, 999 = 16 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg quite well but perhaps the flush and A-A-3-4 will peg best.

Position:

We have a small lead but also positional advantage so I'll play Defense.

Summary:

Both the flush and A-A-3-4 are guaranteed to increase and have approximately the same starting value. A-A-3-4 has 20 cuts for 8-10pts (2222 +16xXs) which is a tremendous improvement from 2pts so I'll throw the 6-9.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5703 votes)

Tuesday 2:37 PM
At 34*-30 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W6 %____W7 %
A-A-3-4___6.26+(-2.24)+5.10=9.12____13.9____36.1
AC-3-4-6__7.59+(-2.00)+3.14=8.73____12.6____35.1
A-A-4-9___6.91+(-2.39)+3.62=8.14____11.9____34.7
A-A-6-9___5.70+(-2.26)+4.68=8.12____12.4____36.2

Defense______L6 %____L7 %
A-A-3-4______12.9____32.9
AC-3-4-6_____12.4____32.7
A-A-4-9______11.8____32.1
A-A-6-9______10.7____30.1

A-A-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.39pt and is slightly best for Win %s. A-A-6-9 is lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Tuesday 3:02 PM
The key is the triple nickel and the discard that is sure to score in the crib. Don't believe many would toss A-A 5.507 (1,209)or A-4 5.416 (1,771)which will start with a crib of two and have higher crib values than does the 6-9 5.114 (2,590). After the deuce cut, knowing that I have ten points, guaranteed peg, and two sure points in crib, will play def. If a small card is led would pair an Ace, would play the four spot on a deuce, would play the Ac on trey lead, and would pair a four lead. With four small cards and another on the deck, opponent is likely to be playing large cards (mid-X pointers). With most hands these cards will do well in peg avoidance. Note in HalscribCLX of the four hands shown only A-3-4-6 flush does better at peg avoidance. Thanks for the input on this puzzle.
Ras2829 says: At the time of my posting the flush and as held above are in a dead heat with 36% each.
jethrotulll

Joined: May 2016 (298 votes)

Tuesday 9:28 PM
Flush is ahead by 1%