January 9, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
48*-42  ?
52%
42%
3%
0%
0%
Total votes: 178
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:09 AM
Seven's in the crib. Prefer those cards rather than J-K. I wasn't completely sure if we want to go offense in this position and that would mean keeping the sevens in the hand.
dec
6353 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:14 AM
I need additional help besides the cuts for the sevens cribbound there they go. Playing off the bestest I can. dec
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:17 AM
Magic 11.Hoping for X card lead, play the seven, next X card-then 2-2 for four points. kind of desperate to get to 69-73. Need points. With A cut, wish I had gone with 7-7 to crib.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:43 AM
When in trouble, I often look to throw the low-ranking cards into my Crib.

But we're not really in trouble here.

Therefore, I'll retain the wonderful three-card "Magic Eleven" of 2-2-7 and hope to play a 7 Card on Pone's Ten Card (or "X") Lead, and then maybe get those two Deuces to "work" together for (31=4).
Guest says: And if we concur with Halscrib (and 42% of those who voted) to throw 7-7, how, when, and where does that four-tenths of a point help us? A few days ago, I contended that by throwing 2-3 or 7-8 to our Opponent's Crib at a precarious score could very likely be a game-losing move. But in these more subtle scenarios as we see in both yesterday's and today's puzzle, this accumulation of incremental tenths-of-a-point are more likely to show up in your Total NET resultant score. It used to surprise me sometimes when I might win seven or eight out of nine games, and still take home no cash, or maybe I'd barely 'snag' Third Place. And then on other occasions, I might win even fewer games, but take Second or even First Place! It all has to do with *relative* scores, when your NET Totals for the night have been tallied up. And so while one extremely poor discard can cost an entire game, these smaller accumulation of slight inaccuracies (as I've apparently made both yesterday and today) tend to "add up" over a series of games, and while they may not cause a single loss of a game, they can and do indeed affect your overall NET Totals. I'm very curious to know if instead of 2-2-7-7 ... what if it were instead 3-3-8-8 today? Stashing low-ranking cards into our Crib is often an under-utilized tactic. would we still want to stash 8-8 in our Crib, or would we pitch J-K. Or would throwing the low-ranking 3-3 finally make sense? ( - j q t - )
Inushtuk1 says: Good question JQT. In a game situation, where I obviously would not have time to map out the various discards, and add the average hands to the average cribs; I’d probably go for the 3’s to the crib, as they are key connectors; even though my 8’s don’t work with the X-cards to make (15-2)’s. Not sure if the math would agree with that logic though. I’m going to submit this as a puzzle, after checking to see if you have not already done so.
JQT says: Okay, my friend, you got me off of my couch at least. Let's do this 'thang' ... but let's make it a bit more subtle; why not adjust the score ever-so-slightly, and then why not also make it a PAIR of Queens instead of Jack-King: (106*-100) (3c 3d 8h 8s Qc Qd). Post it, my friend; and when it appears, likely over a year from now, we'll rack our brains (and perhaps even 'wrack' them...) trying to remember whose brilliant idea it was!
Inushtuk1 says: And Ramses II; who bore a striking resemblance to Yul Brynner, said, “So let it be written; so let it be done.” And it was *done*. And Ramses looked out upon his kingdom, and saw that it was good.
Inushtuk1 says: But Dathan, who looked like Edward G Robinson said, “Wait a minute Ramses. These are two different animals. The 2-2-7-7 is a three-card “Magic Eleven. However the 3-3-8-8 is two sets of *two*-card ”Magic Elevens”. Would that not make the latter a better keep on defense?” And Joshua, who loooked like John Derek said; “Who cares. I’m going to marry Linda Evans. and then Bo.” We’ll all find out on Sunday, December 30th, 2018.
james500
3918 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:08 AM
I see the 7-2-2 pegging possibility, but I'll try the pair of sevens in my box.
DoctorWitty
686 votes

Joined: January 2017
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:28 AM
I think having the 7s with the 2s is good for pegging potential, but we can also afford to play carefully and not risk points if we don't need to. Hopefully we'll catch a Queen in the box...
DoctorWitty says: It almost feels like it comes down to personal preference. Of course throwing 7-7 in the box can strike big but I have to be hoping, I find quite often it'll just give me the 2 points it started with.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:20 AM
I prefer 7-7. No need, in this good board position, to speculate on possible pegging with the J-K throw?
glmccuskey
4096 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:28 AM
I’ll keep the better peggers.
Gougie00
5725 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:24 AM
Praying for some help.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:38 AM
Pegging and QK, Q6 and Q9 are common throws.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:25 AM
I don't expect any help from the pone, but the 7's go to the crib. The 2's should help with the pegging.

With the Ace cut, I only have a guarantee of 11 holes and will be a little short of my goal. I need a little help from the pone to make this hand work.
Inushtuk1
1481 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:01 AM
I’m in the *slight* minority today. Let’s see if we can change that. I don’t see why so many are so keen on speculating; as Andy, said on the pegging potential of the two pairs. I am dealing *beyond* my 2nd Street CPZ. My opponent is 6 holes *behind* me. Let’s put those two key connectors in the crib where they can do what they do best - *conecting* with the other mid-cards. There are three cards to come in my crib. I’m expecting at least one from the Pone, possibly 2; as he needs to play offense here. And now we see that (7-7) not *only* connects with all the mid-cards; but with an A as well. Why I have been known to be such a generous Dealer, that on occasion I will even deal my opponent A-A-5-J-Q-K. With the potential for 18 points in his/her hand keeping 5-J-Q-K, where do you suppose those Aces will wind up?

On offense there is definitely a strong argument to keep the pairs and they’re wonderful three-card “Magic Eleven”. Just not here. And even on offense a good case could also be made for (7-7).
Inushtuk1 says: JR above me says we only have a guarantee of 11 holes. True enough. But I expect we’ll peg a bit more than the minimum, and score more than 4 in the crib. But even if we only move down 11 holes, we are still only 10 away from our next CPZ. I’ll keep the brakes on. That is to say, play my 2 of clubs on any X-card lead. The same goes for a 9, 8, or 2 lead. Dumping my lone J on the 7, 6, 4, 3 or Ace lead.
Inushtuk1 says: I forgot the uncommon 5 lead. Pone is most likely fishing for an X-card response. At this score, I won’t give her/him the pleasure. Again playing away with my 2 of clubs. And I wil avoid “tripping” if Pone pairs my 2, no matter what her/his lead card was. Even if it was a 9, and the count could go: 9(9)-2(11)-2(13-2). I won’t take that very tempting (15-8). But maybe that’s just me being too conservative again.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:05 AM
Its between 2-2-J-K (7-7), 2-2-7-7 (J-K) and 7-7-J-K (2-2), Each starts with 4+0pts or 2+2pts. 7-7-J-K is unlikely as it neither keeps the pegging cards nor the chances of 15-2 wth the X cards but I'll examine it anyway:

2-2-J-K: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 7¾pts

2-2-7-7: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.96) = 8pts

7-7-J-K: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.72) = 7¾pts

Potential:

2-2-J-K: Improves with AAAA, 22, 3333, 5555, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 5/6/10pts with AAAA, 22, 3333, 5555, QQQQ = 18 cuts. Plus 10 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

2-2-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 22, 4444, 6666, 77, 8888 = 20 cuts = 43.5% up to 8/12pts with 22, 4444, 6666, 77, 8888 16 cuts.

7-7-J-K: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 77, 8888, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 24 cuts = 52.2% up to 5/6pts with 5555, 77, 8888, QQQQ = 14 cuts. Plus 10 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

Pegging:

Pegging Offense 2-2-7-7 should peg best with a low pair and a 3-card magic eleven with 2-2-J-K next. But pegging Defense I think all will peg OK.

Position:

We're 4pts past Second street positional hole and we're there first (Pone being 2pts short) so I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Summary:

7-7-J-K has less cuts for 5/6pts compared to 2-2-J-K so I think can be eliminated. Although 2-2-7-7 has a better maximum it has 4 less cuts for improvement. 2-2-J-K has 18 cuts for 5-10pts compared to 2-2-7-7 which has 16 cuts for 8-12pts so the potential increase I think is close. 2-2-7-7 has a ¼pt better starting value but this is out-weighed by the extra 0.22pt for his nopb with 2-2-J-K. As 2-2-7-7 loses its pegging efficiency by playing Defense, on balance, I think 2-2-J-K will have the edge.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:39 AM
At 48*-42 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W6 %____W7 %
2-2-J-K___4.30+(-2.13)+5.99=8.16____50.1____44.7
2-2-7-7___5.91+(-2.11)+3.96=7.76____49.4____44.4
7-7-J-K___3.78+(-2.33)+5.63=7.08____47.1____41.3

Defense______L6 %____L7 %
2-2-J-K______39.9____38.0
2-2-7-7______39.5____38.4
7-7-J-K______41.1____40.9

2-2-J-K is 0.40pt best for expected averages and slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 7-7 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 11:18 AM
Rosemarie44, the first to post this day sized it up just right. If position was reversed (42*-48), strategy would be offense and 2-2-7-7 would be retained. Here we are already beyond 2nd street CPZ (43-47); so we make the defensive choice and play off the lead. It's so important to choose strategy at time of retention/discard and then modify as appropriate if starter card is advantageous to hand and or discard. If starter card had been a trey, 7, or 8, would have shifted a gear into optimal. Still would be a bit shy of all out offense given opponent is sitting at hole 42.
Inushtuk1 says: Belated felicitations and salutations Ras, on your second place finish at the Daffodil Main. Stick with it young man. You’ll figure this game out yet. ; - ) And thanks for the tip on switching gears, if the starter had been a trey, 7, or 8.
Guest says: Great Puzzle, RAS! Hope you caught my late reply comment in yesterday's discussion. (sorry for not logging in at the moment; I'm slightly under-the-weather, and the only device within easy reach is my original iPad, which for some reason, doesn't allow me to log in properly ... - j q t - )
Inushtuk1 says: Hi again Ras. This idea of modifying strategy after seeing the starter cardthat still often alludes me. In the case of a 7 or 8 starter we have 6 minimum in the crib but only 2 in the hand plus 1 for Dealer’s peg. This puts us at hole 57. Our target is 59 or better So we switch gears to optimal. Am i on the right track? Or is it because we are hoping for a monster crib and hoping to be Pone next hand already in our next CPZ? Or is it some combination of the two? As far as the trey cut, I see only an increase of 2 points over the Ace cut. This puts us at hole
Inushtuk1 says: Sorry I cut myself off. This puts us at hole 61 instead of 59. So why switch gears here?
Ras2829 says: Would like to approach the next deal at hole 60 or there about so that our non-dealer hand if average would put us at hole 69 to deal with 3rd street CPZ 69-73). Think an optimal strategy has better chance to do that than defense. I would still play off the lead as that is a biased presentation.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: If we are able to move even beyond hole 59, that's all good and means would be able to tolerate a low scoring hand on the next deal. Anything we make here that puts us at the corner or beyond should add to our winning percentage. Thus my ultimate choice of optimal pegging strategy. Given that would pair the second card played by n/d and would play my King as a response to all leads other than 2, J, Q, or K. Not likely to get a deuce lead; if so would pair with some staged hesitation. Would pair a K or J lead if it put the count at 22 or greater. unless .
Ras2829 says: Omit the word "lead" in the final sentence.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Ras I’ll keep working on it.