March 28, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by Jazzselke
70*-70  ?
46%
17%
14%
14%
5%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 284
james500
3927 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 3:19 AM
I'm guessing the 456 should stay together?
Ras2829
5157 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:25 AM
At hole 70 with n/d shoulder-to-shoulder with 3rd street CPZ (69-73), it's offense to include the pegging. Moving down the board is most important thing dealer can do. Considered discards of 7-9, 3-7, and 6-9. The 7-9 has a slight edge in combined values although less than .3 separates these three discard choices based on my scant empirical evidence; thus my choice. Have no idea what win/loss % might be and won't live long enough to figure that out. One needs multiple lives to learn this game: one full lifetime is not sufficient. Play on the lead and take any pegs offered with a hand of 8 and the Ace starter seemingly not of much value to discard of 7-9. Crib average of 7-9 to own crib barely breaks 4.0 .
Ras2829 says: And 3-7 to own crib is even worse than 7.9 with an average of 3.333. Will defer to HalscribCLX as to win/loss %. The latter may be all that matters in this critical position on third street.
mrob2199
1439 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 3:58 AM
Like the potential of 5 cuts helping this hand and crib configuration-the 3,4,5,or 6 for the hand and an 8 for the crib-will be very aggressive in the pegging as we want to get as close to 4th street as we can
MA2906Bptrs
198 votes

Joined: October 2023
 
 
 
Thursday 4:22 AM
I’m keeping the 3456
horus93
1282 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Thursday 4:31 AM
I used to get these kinds of hands mixed up a lot more, but one day spent ~15 minutes sort of studying them on Liam and that helped a lot.

General rules of thumb for dealer:
4569 is better than 456X, but not by much
4569 or 456X is better than 3456, but again not by much; and 3456 is a better offensive pegger obv
4567 is worse than 4569, 456X, or 3456 and is usually not the way

And then weigh that against the crib throw, bearing in mind that the differences given above are pretty narrow. In this case, could keep 4569 and throw 37, but 37 is a very weak toss to own crib, one of the worst lo-mids in spite of the "connector" factor. 79, I've talked smack about, but it's better than 37 (though only by a few tenths depending on delta). That, and the offensive nature of the score, I will toss 79.

My rules of thumb led me right. Tossing 37, the hand is 0.1 better, but the crib is 0.3 worse, so it doesn't really work. 69 is an interesting idea... only 0.4 south of my way for hand+crib, wonder if anyone will do that? But subpar still.

Unfortunate cut that only adds 2 (A365 fifteen, would be lying if I said I never missed that one lol). Still max offense is the way. Makes me think of a sign at the local corner store... below a long list of rules ("no backpacks!" "no crowding around the skill machines!") it says in all caps "NO EXCEPTIONS - NO WHINING POLICIES".
Inushtuk1 says: Hi horus93. So, if I'm understanding your general rules of thumb for Dealer, you *might* choose 4-5-6-9 (3-7) on Defense. Is that correct?
Inushtuk1 says: Then again, as you say, (3-7) is even worse than (7-9) because of Pone's natural bias to avoid tossing 5's. That's what makes this a great learning puzzle, and perhaps why Dan submitted it.
horus93 says: Yeah I would keep 4569 on defense for sure; I think the value of an "out" is worth more than minus a couple tenths to our expected hand + crib if the score was, like, 85*-87 or something.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks horus93.
glmccuskey
4105 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Thursday 4:46 AM
Offense to include the pegging
dec
6362 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:55 AM
Add two at least on all cuts the six is the bingo. Adventures in pegging land. dec
ZulwarnGames
135 votes

Joined: November 2022
 
 
 
Thursday 5:27 AM
See? This is why I'm no pro.

I considered 3-4-5-6 but figured that 6-9 would be better than 7-9. To my chagrin, the potential for the 3-4-5-6 hand outweighs the 3-4-5-7 by a good 1.5, according to Liam, more than making up for the 1.1 difference between the 7-9 and 6-9.

Of course, the difference between my toss and this one is 0.3, but it's these micro-optimizations that win games in the long run.

Side note: I played OTB Cribbage with my wife on a date night last night out at our local bar. She prefers Gin Rummy but was open to Crib last night. The game ended with her as Pone, counting up the glorious 120 hole before I counted my hand and went out. She may never play with me again! :)
horus93 says: Wish you could play cards in a bar in Virginia. Try taking out a deck of cards in a bar here, you'll get pretty much the same reaction as if you started waving a gun around lol. Speak from experience there. Yeah that's not like a crazy mistake, think if you put anyone's games under a microscope you would find them making mistakes of that magnitude here and there no matter how experienced they are. But it's a good illustration of the "rules of thumb". 3456, 79, that's six points (albeit hand improves on every cut); 3457, 69, that's seven total, so it'd be easy to think the latter would be better. But 69 is a no-star, i.e. it doesn't do *that* much better than the average crib (though it does do better), so in some sense you can think of it as "0", and then you're comparing, not six and seven, but six and five. However there are many, many exceptions to that rule of thumb, which we see here every week! And this itself is an exception, because 4569 starts with seven, not six, but because of the difference in 37 vs 79 in the crib, and 3456 being such a good hand, it breaks the mold. Best quick guide to discarding as dealer I've read is Schell's, though should be said his treatment is profoundly influenced by Ras.
Inushtuk1 says: What is OTB Cribbage? Over the board? You're fortunate your wife plays Cribbage. My gf only wants to play that god-awful Skip-Bo, or almost as boring Phase Ten.
ZulwarnGames says: @Inushtuk1 Yes, OTB is short for Over The Board. Sorry for assuming everyone knows that. I play a lot online and not a lot in person.
wasa
3022 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Thursday 6:24 AM
A few good choices to ponder. Interesting to note that 3-4-5-6 toss 7-9 is guaranteed 8 points (hand + crib) but 4-5-6-9 (toss 3-7) is guaranteed 9 points. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush?
Inushtuk1 says: True. The 8 cut misses the hand but scores 2 in the crib.
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 6:39 AM
I hate 79 to the crib but there is too much potential with 3456. Would consider 4569 but 37 seems to disappoint even with 2 connecting cards as mentioned.
Sgt Pegger says: Good puzzle today, Dan! The 7,9 always seems to fall short for me as well. So, for me, it came down to the 6,9 because any cut card will us in the overall play here. The 9 is the only cut that shorts us in the hand. But we still have the crib ;).
Ras2829 says: Hi Jazzselke: Very good puzzle and these or similar cards often show in real play. So, insights and analysis of this day will have an increased chance for application to actual games played.
Gougie00
5734 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 6:52 AM
Let's try it this way
Gougie00 says: 79 is usually a clunker in the crib.
Inushtuk1
1490 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 6:52 AM
Given the discard options, 3-4-5-6(7-9) jumps to the fore. Offense to the lead now that I have only 8 points in my hand, and perhaps a nothing burger in the Crib. I would't say no to an 8 lead.
zeke76
1400 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Thursday 6:59 AM
I liked the 96 to my crib.
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Thursday 7:24 AM
I wanted the 9 as an escape card from the getting big runs on me
scottcrib says: Since we are in a position to favor offense, we want the runs today. If we were pone at this position, then we would want an escape card.
SallyAnn3 says: Hi Scott, I thought about that, but it usually bites me in the butt lol.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 7:27 AM
I like the Long 🏃🏼‍♂️ RUN (3 4 5 6), as it gets help from EVERY Cut Card, but I'm glad it wasn't asked what my Next Favorite Choice would be after this. Let's Toss (7 9) today. 🍋 🌸 🍸

Wordle 1,013 3/6 (considered easy a century ago)

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Eolus619 says: Today is THE opening day of the MLB season..a looong time ago ..1950s…one of the great Brooklyn Dodgers outfielders was a player named Carl Furillo. He went in a deep batting slump during a critical part of the season...the Catholic priests asked their parishioners to light candles for him ..I think your icon malady might benefit from the same thing 🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️
MiketheExpert says: I think keep (4 5 6 9) would be my 2nd choice with toss (3 7), but not a lot to choose really.
Annabella says: JQT, those non-hints make me cry-I am too clueless. I will expend energy on Cribbage and finding this Liam you all speak of. And, I think Eolus619 had a good idea about the candle….nice to have a morning laugh anyway. Thanks to you all. 🕯
Eolus619 says: Liam https://cliambrown.com/cribbage/
MiketheExpert
1126 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Thursday 7:59 AM
I slightly prefer keeping the low-end run of 4, and toss (7 9) here. Might be able to wiggle my way and escape with one of the low cards if I don't want to get into a pegging war. Not a great throw, but it is better than (3 9) or (3 7). Cautious offense for me.
Coeurdelion
5597 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 3:10 PM
I'll look at 5-6-7-9 (3-4), 3-4-5-6 (7-9), 4-5-6-9 (3-7) and 3-4-5-7 (6-9):

5-6-7-9: 5pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 10pts

3-4-5-6: 6pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.04) = 10¼pts

4-5-6-9: 7pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.58) = 10½pts

3-4-5-7: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 10¼pts

Potential:

5-6-7-9: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 19 cuts.

3-4-5-6: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/14/16pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777 = 19 cuts.

4-5-6-9: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, 999 = 12 cuts.

3-4-5-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 9/12/14pts with 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 888 = 18 cuts.

Position:

We're both at 3rd street positional hole but as Dealer we have positional advantage. Our target is 86pts but the further past we can get will increase our chances of winning considerably. So I'll play Offense but with caution.

Pegging:

Playing more with offense I think all the hands will peg pretty well. Three of them have a magic eleven but I think I favour 3-4-5-6.

Summary:

4-5-6-9 has the best starting value but only by ¼pt over 3-4-5-6 and 3-4-5-7. 5-6-7-9 and 3-4-5-6 have guaranteed improvement while 3-4-5-6 has 19 cuts for 9-16pts. 4-5-6-9 has only 12 cuts for 11-16pts, 3-4-5-7 18 cuts for 9-14pts and 5-6-7-9 has 19 cuts for 8-12pts so I think 3-4-5-6 performs best and perhaps will peg best. Therefore I'll throw the 7-9.
HalscribCLX
5320 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:10 PM
At 70*-70 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
3-4-5-6____9.85+3.85+3.90=17.60____54.6____42.3
4-5-6-9____9.93+3.80+3.53=17.26____53.2____40.6
3-4-5-7____8.33+3.87+4.97=17.17____52.9____40.1
4-5-6-7____9.54+3.87+3.52=16.93____53.5____41.3
5-6-7-9____8.09+4.07+4.70=16.86____50.0____38.2

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
3-4-5-6________51.5____41.5
4-5-6-9________52.4____43.0
3-4-5-7________52.6____43.4
4-5-6-7________51.5____42.4
5-6-7-9________50.9____45.3

3-4-5-6 is best for expected averages by 0.34pt. and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 7-9 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Offense to the lead.