Yesterday's results

*** This hand was suggested by CTB in VT
109-103*  ?
44%
32%
8%
7%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 290
JQT
4135 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:17 AM
We are Pone at Hole 109, needing a Dozen Points to WIN, while the Dealer sits tentatively at Hole 103, requiring Eighteen Points to go out. The Crib is therefore mostly (but not entirely) a "Don't Care" today. 🤷🏼‍♂️

"Would we trade with thee?" is a good question to ask, both before and after we look at our cards. We need Two Points above Par, which is a nominal Ten Points for Pone, while the Dealer currently lies about the same number of Holes beyond the Dealer Par of Sixteen Points.

We could Keep the RUN in two different forms, or we could retain the PAIR with a Fifteen-Two:

Keep (3 4 5 Q) and Toss (9 9) begins with Five Points, and it has Nine Cuts (333, 444, 555) that will yield Ten Points or more, all while 'coughing up' a PAIR to the Enemy Crib;

Keep (3 4 5 9) and Toss (9 Q) begins with only Three Points, and it has only Three Cuts (333) that will yield Ten Points or more, while sending a very defensive discard to the Enemy Crib;

Keep (5 9 9 Q) and Toss (3 4) begins with just Four Points, and yet it doesn't have ANY Cuts that will yield Ten Points; and while it places no immediate points in the Enemy Crib, it does entail a Dangerous Discard, one that often gives up as much as a High-Ranking PAIR!

On an "Open Board," I think we should prefer Toss (9 Q) in most scenarios, especially those that do not involve Critical Positions. But the whole nature of this Cribbage Puzzle revolves around the specific Endgame Battle we are now facing, and that's due to the Critical Position we currently find ourselves in with the given score!

Keep (3 4 5 Q) is therefore clearly our only reasonable chance to WIN, so let's 'ditch' the PEAR 🍐 and Toss (9 9) today.

After the 6 Card Cut, we now have Eight Points in our Hand, and we need to peg Four Holes to 'cover the distance' in order to WIN before the Dealer counts Hand and Crib; let's lead the Queen and gobble ANY Points we can get.

Even if we do not obtain those Four Holes during the Pegging Battle that we need to WIN before the completion of this deal, we still have a fairly good chance of Pegging Out as the Next Dealer, so we should not lose hope if we fail to peg.

That about 'wraps it up' for today, so let me wish everyone a Good Wednesday, Good Thursday, Good Friday, Good Passover, Good Ramadan, Good Easter, Good Humor, Good Graciousness, Good Grief, Good Spring Madness, and Good Spring Mattress Sale! - j q t -

Wordle 1,012 4/6 (All Green 🟢🟢🟢 Like Spring, Akin to a Past Tense 🍼 Message in a Bottle)

🟩🟩⬛⬛⬛
⬛⬛⬛🟩⬛
🟩🟩⬛🟩⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
JQT says: Today's Cribbage Puzzle seems to come down to a last-ditch, sink-or-swim, mad dash for the exit. Even if that 6 Card Cut does yield Six Points in the Enemy Crib, the Dealer will still need a fairly good Hand alongside such a Crib to defeat us. If the Dealer responds to our Queen Lead with any Middle Card, this might indicate that the Dealer will need to peg as much as we do in order to have enough to go the distance. And, if either the Dealer's Hand or Crib contains a Dozen or more points, we're likely to lose this game regardless, unless of course we can peg those Four Holes we need to prevail. It's very important to remember that the Dealer has no idea whether we need to peg or not, and we don't want to exhibit any behaviors or indicators that reveal our plight! It looks dire, but if we can conclude the Pegging Battle with a RUN and a GO, that translates into the required Four Points needed! Regarding Yesterday's Wordle: my anti-hint was "Portmanteau Monthly Preposition" but I should have said "Portmanteau Monthly Conjunction" since "OR" is a conjunction, and is not typically used as a preposition. (My Bad!) My guesses were: STEAR, CHAIN, RAZOR, MAYOR. "I almost typed in 'PERTINACIOUSLY' but then I realized, "Wait a minute; that's not five letters!" 🤡
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. "If the Dealer responds to our Queen lead with any Middle Card, this might indicate that the Dealer will need to peg as musc as we do..." How do you figure that? That mid card could just be an attempt to keep us from scoring an easy (15-2). It could also be the top half of a Two Cardn Eleven. Also, "...the Dealer has no idea whether we need to peg or not, and we don't want to exhibit any behaviours that reveal our plight!" Would't s/he assume we are short when we lead a high card, instead of a low one?
Gougie00
5701 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:24 AM
Its the last train out of town. Curl your nose and toss 99 and pray for a 3 or 5. The 6 helps a little. Lead the Q and try to peg with the 345.
Eolus619 says: Morning..Al Miller has to be smiling & nodding approval !
Gougie00 says: Those of us that knew Al well would attest he didn't do a whole lot of smiling. Al would pick up his 6 cards and discard 2 immediately so you never knew if he had a good hand or bad one.
mrob2199
1406 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:29 AM
Time to be aggressive-lead the Q and see if we can garner a few pegging points
SallyAnn3 says: Happy Birthday, Rob! Enjoy your day :)
Inushtuk1 says: Happy Birthday, Rob.
MA2906Bptrs
165 votes

Joined: October 2023

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:41 AM
I went with Q-9 today
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:41 AM
Probably too late to slow my opponent.
zeke76
1366 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:49 AM
I think we take our shot here. The cut keeps us on tenterhooks.
Jazzselke
2568 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:06 AM
Go for the win.
dec
6326 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:10 AM
Cutting for game skill did not work out. Now for creative pegging prowess. Agree Queen lead trying to get closer closer. dec
horus93
1271 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:11 AM
I get it what’s going on etc. But 9Q just seems to have too many subpar cuts. Preventing dealer from counting out won’t do us any good if we don’t get into peg-out range, which will be a lift as he’s likely on max defense. 99 *is* dangerous, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise… sometimes people reason about pairs to dealer the same way they think about pairs to own crib. They tend to have some line of thought like “only a six or a nine will help, and there are only two nines left out there,” as I’ve read here many a time. This isn’t so… there are many other ways for 99 to make a splash than a 6 or a 9 (and there *are* four sixes left out there). Pairs are always a pretty big risk to dealer. Even the safest one, KK, is about as dangerous as A4, and A4 isn’t something you throw willie nillie. The idea that two points of KK's mean is cribs that are "just two" is simply not true. And as for 99, it’s only a few hundredths worse, when thrown as pone, as 45 is when thrown to own crib.

But I’m still throwing 99 today.

With that cut, I’m thinking “sweet I’ll get to 117* with no pegs… but oh crap dealer has at least a six point crib and quite plausibly more” So between those two things I’ll try to count out or get as close to game as possible, perhaps pegging out from 120*-119. Hi-to-low is normally the answer on max offense, and that’s what I’ll do today with the Q lead. Something more delicate, like leading a four to entice an eight reply, just doesn’t seem likely enough to let me peg big.

I dunno though the more I think about it, it is tricky. “699?? crib isn’t a guaranteed count out by oppo, and if you play wild, he might count out then.” The thing is, I think he will be *close* to counting out anyway, and this will be an “overtime” pegout battle if I don’t go out first. Also think about it like this – if you do end up giving up a lot of pegs on the Q lead, you’ll tend to peg a lot yourself because you’re talking about exchanges of runs etc. So I’ll still lead the Q even on a double-take.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:37 AM
Aggressive. Play to win on this deal.
ZulwarnGames
100 votes

Joined: November 2022

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:38 AM
Not a clear one to me, but I'm no pro!

I'm probably too conservative, but in this case, but in this case, I tossed the Q-9. I'm praying for a good pegging hand next round and hoping I can hold the dealer to 18 or less, which is a decent possibility. I'm improved by all cuts to one extent or the other. Obviously, the cut seems to imply this was the "right" call, but it seems like a stretch no matter what you pick with this hand.
ZulwarnGames says: Everyone! I won the Mega Millions! ... ... ... Four whole bucks!
horus93 says: Nice, sounds like you have the same crappy luck as anyone who plays a lot of cribbage, lol
cribbagepogo says: I won $50, back into lottery, except the $15 previous.
zeke76 says: Don’t spend it all in one place. Hit at least two vending machines.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:23 AM
Needing 12 points to win or close to game hole on nest deal if we play another hand, it's goodbye 9-9, lead the Queen, and take any pegs offered. Although am not pleased with that 6 starter card with the 9-9 discard, this is not the time for timidity.
Ras2829 says: I see no reason to consider defense in this position. N/D of this hand either needs to win with first count or be close enough to peg out as dealer of the ensuing hand. Just don't see how a defense strategy will allow either.
wasa
2990 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:50 AM
Full offence - need to win on this hand. Not thrilled with the cut.

So, since I can't peg worth a darn, what do I lead in order to maximize my pegging points? The Q to save the 3-4-5 combo to try and peg with a run? The 5 to have a, in theory, 25% chance to double a Q (since I would estimate my opponent would play a T,J,Q, or K on my 5 lead).

Without support from this group, I would lead the Q hoping to pair a 5 reply, or to use my 3-4 combo with opponent's 2 or other low card play
Sgt Pegger
251 votes

Joined: July 2017

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:15 AM
We are not dead yet! So, why give the dealer anything here? Sometimes you need to just hang in there and play smart and to me, this is one of those times to simply stay the course.

In this case, I will lead the 3 and see where the pone takes us. We do need to peg something...... just not at all cost unless we get 4 pegging points. Which is quite possible if we set some traps.

I'm really sort of surprised that I'm playing second fiddle today in popular choices......most days I expect it! lol
MiketheExpert says: For what it is worth, I agree, but seems I'm rather outnumbered
JQT says: Patience and Defense are definitely virtues, and these are frequently rewarded in Cribbage, but this idea of Toss (9 Q) might be an exception to this: Needing a Dozen Points to WIN, if we Keep (3 4 5 9), while we do indeed get help from EVERY Cut Card, now, since we only begin with Three Points with this idea, there are an abundance of Twenty-Nine Cuts (AAAA, 7777, 8888, 99, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK), or nearly two-thirds of the remaining deck, that produce LESS THAN HALF of what we need, or just Five Points! Therefore, since 29/46 equals 0.630, about 63% of the time we will need to peg Seven Holes. Pone Pegging Average is 2.1 Points, and Dealer Pegging Average is 3.5 Points; thus, we might normally expect to obtain a combined total of 5.6 Points from these two independent and separate events, but our Opponent will be highly motivated in trying to prevent this, and will be fighting us most or all of the way.
MiketheExpert says: True - but with the same idea that dealer should be motivated to prevent us from pegging, if we start with the additional 2 points while throwing the pair, (3 4 5 Q), there are still a total of _ (AAAA,2222,6666,7777,8888,99,TTTT,JJJJ,KKKK) 36 cuts which leave our hand at 8pts or LESS, and thus we would still need to peg at least 4 points, which should be a tough chore. With this throw, I wouldn't be surprised that dealer's odds above 50% to count out if we fail (clearly more after the 6 cut). With the balk, this should enable more aggression on the pegging, and perhaps the (3 4 5 9) has a better chance to make up ground with the trap play, or score "multiples" (i.e.. 3 or more points) than that of the (3 4 5 Q) with a "highly motivated" dealer, as you say.
horus93 says: I'd agree that 3459 should peg better; not an easy call. I guess I'm just afraid that I cut for 5, peg one or 2, and then lose that way because I'm out of range. But could talk in circles... easy to see either of these losing, or winning the game. Obv suspect the aggressive way is somewhat better but more of an opinion than a certitude.
ZulwarnGames says: I think the consensus is that this is a controversial toss either way. And not a situation you'd like to be in!
MiketheExpert says: Slight mistake above, I meant 34 cuts for 8 or less, not 36.
Sgt Pegger says: Great points guys! I guess I'm thinking in terms of let's pretend you're my pone in this situation. Although my hold is trackable to a degree, can you really track all of my cards? That 9 gives us an odd hold and let's face it, the dealer should be very in tune with me wanting to peg a few and should play accordingly to avoid giving me any "free pegs" without paying for some in return to him. I think in this scenario, we must keep the 3,4,5 together because they are the best overall option to compliment any cut card. So, this leaves us with us 2 choices for what the 4th card should be. I cannot see the wisdom in throwing the 99 together. I feel that is a "giving up" attitude. The 9/Q gives us some refuge in avoiding most monster cribs. So, for me it's a blend of a smooth offensive defensive maneuvering dance show to win this one lol!
MiketheExpert says: Not "giving up" I'd think, but perhaps "giving in" with over-aggression. This is clearly an "offense" first situation, as depicted by choice of strategy of most everyone, including HAL. It is only the "balking" toss for me that would be considered defensive, but in almost all cases I'd think offense on the pegs is probably a must.
MiketheExpert
1093 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:15 AM
I will hope the combo of the balk and/or cut will enable me to count or peg out on the next hand with dealer at hole 103. Certainly glad I didn't throw the pair with this cut. With an 8-pt hold, probably won't try and push the pegs on this deal needing 4 to count out. Will try leading the 3, and be satisfied with 2 pegs - but will certainly take more if able. Could this cost the game by laying back? It could, but I think survival still gives us better odds than trying to make it out here.
MiketheExpert says: Had I received an even less favorable cut, the "balk" might make me inclined to be more aggressive on the pegging. If I cut for only 5 points, I'd switch to offense by leading the 9 and trying to peg enough to get me into "peg-out" range next deal.
MiketheExpert says: Then again, some may say no "guts" no glory. Leading the 9 now could enable us to win it right here....
simon.meth says: I'm with you, Mike! Question: thought about which 9 to discard. Does it matter?
ZulwarnGames says: I kept the 9 of hearts for the outside chance of needing to fake a flush when I lead the 9.
MiketheExpert says: It is unlikely I am trying to fake a flush, so I don't think it matters. Just keeping 2 cards of the same suit in case, as of leading the 9, I also have a 5 of the same suit (and if I'm going for a trap, my next card played will not be the 5), but in some pegging sequences I may still have the ability for a "flush fake".
MiketheExpert says: Also, the flush fake likely doesn't have a lot of benefit, as I could be holding the exact same thing WITH a flush.
MiketheExpert says: Well, crowd is certainly of split opinion, though have lost in all other aspects: Actually barely more of the "popular" consensus - 43% to 42% :)
guideontheside
320 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 10:41 AM
Damn the torpedoes- full speed ahead!
fentesk
1173 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Wednesday 10:41 AM
I wanted to go defense today (Q-9), but that almost guarantees I will need to peg out next hand. Rough feel (that is, I didn't count out all of the cuts today) seems that getting into pegging out range with the 3-4-5-9 is on the same order of probability as getting out this hand (including pegging) with 3-4-5-Q.

If I add in chances of dealer holding an above average hand (which feels like it's an already above average probability at this score in my games), I'd just as soon try to get out before they score their hands.

Others will do a more thorough calculation of these two options today and determine which if more likely.
SallyAnn3
881 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 11:44 AM
Have to go for it. I'm playing to win....
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:40 PM
I think it's between 3-4-5-Q (9-9) and 5-9-9-Q (3-4):

3-4-5-Q: 5pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.39) = -1¼pts

5-9-9-Q: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.96) = -1¾pts

Potential:

3-4-5-Q: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 + 15xXs = 44 cuts = 44/46 = 95.7% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, QQQ = 20 cuts.

5-9-9-Q: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 99 + 15xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8pts with AAAA, 555, 6666, 99, QQQ = 16 cuts.

Position:

We need 12pts to go out so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

With two low cards, a 5 and a high card I think 3-4-5-Q will peg better.

Summary:

3-4-5-Q is better for starting value by ½pts and has more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 16 cuts for 8pts with 5-9-9-Q. Also 3-4-5-Q should peg better. 3-4-5-Q has 6 cuts for 12pts (333, 555) and 3 for 10pts (444) so will have a much better chance of winning. Therefore I'll throw the 9-9.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:40 PM
At 109-103*8 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W1 %____W2 %
3-4-5-9____6.20+2.30+(-3.95)=4.55____18.9____35.8
3-4-5-Q____8.07+1.39+(-6.20)=3.26____29.7____42.4
4-5-9-9____4.76+1.48+(-4.56)=1.68_____9.2____19.1
3-5-9-9____4.41+1.48+(-4.31)=1.58_____2.4____18.6
4-5-9-Q____4.59+1.50+(-4.53)=1.56_____6.0____20.5
5-9-9-Q____5.91+1.24+(-5.71)=1.44_____6.3____21.8

Offense______L1 %____L2 %
3-4-5-9_______24.4____55.4
3-4-5-Q_______37.4____46.1
4-5-9-9_______25.2____73.6
3-5-9-9_______23.4____74.6
4-5-9-Q_______24.5____72.2
5-9-9-Q_______32.2____69.0


3-4-5-9 is best for expected averages but in this end of game board position Win/Loss %s are most important and 3-4-5-Q is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 9-9 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the Q and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Points
Q_____________________1.79
4_____________________1.65
3_____________________1.46
5_____________________1.27
MiketheExpert says: Now, 1 thing I'll say here in defense of the top "expected" value pick. Adding up Hand + Our pegs gives us 8.5 (3-4-5-9) compared to 9.45 with (3-4-5-Q). Is the 1.4 hole difference at this juncture worth the risk of an expected crib difference of 2.3 points with dealer at hole 103? Food for thought!
MiketheExpert says: Sorry, less than 1 full point (8.5) to (9.45)
MiketheExpert says: I'm also fairly sure this game will be over after 2 deals one way or another - so also don't understand why the W/L%'s combined are so far off from 100% for many of the choices (that may be lack of understanding to the way in which W/L%'s are calculated though).
MiketheExpert says: One thing I can agree on as a general principle is that if it DOES make it to the next deal, the W/L% statistics for Hand 2 should in general put us in better shape, providing we SURVIVE the (9 9) toss - I suspect that 37.4 as an L1% is rather "suspect" once knowing you are tossing an average of well over 6 points into the crib. Unfortunately, I can't "believe in the W/L% without actually understanding how they should be calculated, though.
RubyTuesday
896 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:08 PM
Oh well I threw Q 9. I need to think more about where I am in the game it seems.