March 26, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by YippiSkippi
21-26*  ?
75%
14%
3%
2%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 269
james500
3927 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:09 AM
I'll try the flush. Q7 seems innocent enough.
james500 says: I've just turned the TV on. I hope nobody on here is involved, or has friends/family members involved, in the bridge collapse in Baltimore. The early reports suggest many people may have drowned.
Ras2829 says: Hi james500; No word yet on injuries or fatalities. Bridge collapsed after being struck by a ship. Built in 1977 and referred to locally as the Key Bridge (named after Francis Scott Key) it later named after the author of the American national anthem. The bridge is more than 8,500 feet, or 1.2 miles, long in total. Its main section spans 1,200 feet and was one of the longest continuous truss bridges in the world upon its completion, according to the National Steel Bridge Alliance..
zeke76 says: I see two rescued and a search for seven.
james500 says: Thank you both for the updates. Luckily, if that's the right way to put it, it happened in the middle of the night when there were fewer cars on it than would have been the case later.
SallyAnn3 says: True James. We have many ACC members in Baltimore, and 3 immediately came to mind, but they'd be snug in bed at that time. No news is good news.
Ras2829
5157 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:20 AM
Choosing offense to include the pegging with dealer at hole 26, it definitely pays to flush this day. Considered only discard of 7-Q as the potential value of the flush is so superior to other choices. Will lead the Ace, holding 4-5-7- intact. Nice to be back after visiting grandson, wife, and two of our precious great grandsons in LaPine, Oregon. More later!
Ras2829 says: It's hard to argue against leading the four spot. Am more likely to choose offense when thinking of optimal strategies. Think the four is certainly optimal lead as it allows recovering two pegs if paired. The Ace lead (my choice) doesn't work in that way if paired.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. There's also the 4-5-7 Sweet sixteen. But you'd have to lead the 5, or the 7 to take advantage of it. Probably not worth it.
Inushtuk1 says: And thanks for answering my query late yesterday. I got it.
mrob2199
1439 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:46 AM
Looks like the flush is the only choice today
Viper31573@gmail.com says: Even I chose the flush
Viper31573@gmail.com says: How were the pizza strips?
mrob2199 says: Much better than my play Sunday lol
dph says: Pizza strips? Do tell.
zeke76
1400 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:57 AM
My muscles weren’t feeling it working out this morning and apparently my brain wasn’t feeling it either. Today should be fun.
dec
6362 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:05 AM
Fourth for the flush. dec
Gougie00
5734 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:08 AM
The flush looks like the best option
horus93
1282 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:54 AM
I read this as a “balanced” score. Schell would read it more defensively, Colvert would be a bit inbetween. In shorthand it’s -11/+10.

As the behind player in a balanced score, I like to discard/peg defensively if my odds of catching up look relatively slim. But I would be more likely to play offense at this score than Schell would.

Imagine if the score was 100-105* (also -11/+10). If you had a shot at, say, 16 points in hand+peg, you’d play offense. But if you had no such shot, it’d be smart to switch to a desperado defensive game, hoping for a trend like 100-105*, 108*-114, W. Same basic thing is going on at these sorts of scores in early game, though need not be said that it’s not quite the same thing.

So to me it’s an easy call to throw the deltified 7Q balk and keep the flush. For all that it’s not the safest pegging hand, it’s not the worst either, and I think the power of the balk will outweigh that. Also just approaching it from the gut, A457 looks like a great flush… improves on any cut, 8 points on any X cut, (or “tenth” cut as Chambers would say, a very old-timey cribbage usage like “prial” or “spillikin”), opening for runs etc. A solid cut would switch me to offense, but many cuts would lean toward defense. And, unlike in end game, the cut off wouldn’t be ~16 points in hand+peg because I have the whole game to catch up and dealer won’t end the game just by getting to 42+. And this is how I’d discard it pretty much anywhere, regardless of the score, because that’s a nice flush and a heavy balk.

With delta, checking Liam, 7Q averages only 4.1 today, which is nearly as safe as a pone throw can be. It’ll give up a 0 crib 10% of the time, a crib of 2 or less 38% of the time. This also has the highest hand mean of the available choices.

With that cut I’ll play it sort of “normal” but leaning toward defense, if that makes sense. Four lead.

Here’s a neat story – archaeologists in Wales found cribbage pegs in a site from the sub-Roman period, 6th-7th century CE. Of course they didn’t have playing cards but they were playing some kind of peg game, anyway, with a board that probably wasn’t that different from a modern cribbage board.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67750403
horus93 says: Another thought - the whole idea of an adding game like cribbage is uniquely british; most early card games are more like bridge. Not implausible that they played an "adding game" with dice, and this evolved into noddy and then cribbage.
Hawthorn
467 votes

Joined: January 2023
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:10 AM
Flush for me too. What would you discard if you were the dealer? I think that might be a trickier call today.
horus93 says: I'd probably try to learn from yesterday and toss 77 at most scores. Close per liam between that and 5x but looks like a better pegger.
ZulwarnGames says: Good question. I think 7-7 is the winning toss as dealer. Although the Q-5 toss looks nice too. Liam says it's a matter of 0.1 difference though.
SallyAnn3 says: Hey Zulwarn. 2 welcomes in 12 hours! Please continue coming here and to the ACC tournaments on eCribbage. If you have questions, feel free to email me at accjudgetest@gmail.com
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:19 AM
Only non-helpful cut is a deuce.
Ras2829 says: Hi Jazzselke: The deuce combines with A-5-7 for one of those 4-card 15-2's. You likely noticed that after posting.
mfetchCT425
1401 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:25 AM
Gotta flush today.
sterno
455 votes

Joined: December 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:27 AM
Another muddle of a hand. Typically I would toss "da ends" however... there isn't enough reasons to break up a perfectly good flush. The flush is the only interesting feature of this hand. 7-Q offsuit to the enemy's crib.
Meh... cut. I am firmly in the herd with other players valuing keeping the flush.
Per Liam.... the flush is the best value. My standbye of tossing da ends is listed as 3rd best play. But, keeping the flush is the best play.
MA2906Bptrs
198 votes

Joined: October 2023
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:40 AM
I like the flush today
wasa
3021 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:42 AM
I feel this would be more interesting if it had been our crib. Or maybe not... since I think in that case the majority would toss themselves 7-7.

It almost always pays to flush!
JQT says: As a Dealer Discard Puzzle at say (21*-26), today's submission begins to look a bit like Yesterday's Puzzle, and ironically, I believe that the FLUSH, in spite of being a great Pegging Hand, once we consider its associated 'Crib 🧪 Poison' of Toss (7 Q), gets 'pushed off the podium' by at least Three or maybe even Four Other Hand Choices, those that remain after Toss (7 7), Toss (5 Q), Toss (A 4), and possibly Toss (4 5)! Tossing the PAIR of 7 Cards would appear best, as it leaves behind a very good Pegging Hand, while also stoking our Crib. And as every Cribbage Aficionado knows: It Pays to STOKE! 🔥
Inushtuk1 says: Seems like the most educational aspect of today's puzzle was learning how to play this hand as Dealer with no flushes available. At least on offense, and I expect on defense as well.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:46 AM
The FLUSH (Ac 4c 5c 7c) and Toss (7 Q) starts with Four Points and can yield a Dozen Points after One Cut (3c), yet Keep (A 5 7 7) and Toss (4 Q) also starts with Four Points and reaches a Dozen Points and does so after Two Cuts (77), and Keep (4 5 7 7) and Toss (A Q), which begins with just Two Points also reaches a Dozen Points and does so after Four Cuts (6666)! ☕ 🥮

I tend to like these in the order listed, with the FLUSH leading the pack, in spite of the lower number of Cut Cards that yield the Maximum Hand. The FLUSH gets a boost from EVERY Cut Card, and will likely peg best among the three ideas.

Let's retain the FLUSH and Toss (7d Q) today. 🍧

After the King 👑 Cut, we now have Eight 🎱 Points in our Hand; let's lead the 4 Card, which allows us to score after Thirty-Four Responses (AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 77, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK).

Wordle 1,011 4/6 (Portmanteau Monthly Preposition)

⬛⬛⬛🟨🟩
⬛⬛🟨⬛⬛
⬛🟩⬛🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Eolus619 says: JQT..as you said yesterday..your clues work AFTER the correct wordle word is identified..in this case the correct word an example .. so as you pointed out ..today your clue is clueless.. I do like the portmanteau aspect though..broadens learning horizons..also..keep your liquids up and get some rest..hope you feel better
RubyTuesday says: I got wordle in 6 today, but even better, got Connections in 5. That’s a puzzle that often stumps those of us on the eastern side of the Atlantic!
ZulwarnGames
135 votes

Joined: November 2022
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:21 AM
I'll take the flush easily. We want to slow down our opponent, so we win here with the 7-Q. Plus, we get some nice pegging cards, including the 7-4 combo. AND we're improved by literally any cut. Win-win-win, at least I think, and the others seem to agree!

The only question to me is: what to lead? Probably the ACE or the 4.
horus93 says: To me, the ace is arguably the best offensive lead (trap dealer in runs later; "five" or x common replies) and the 4 is the best defensive lead (covered, retains ace as an "out" to avoid runs). But obv 4 lead can peg, too
SallyAnn3 says: whoops. I should have look down to see if you posted. Look at my note ubnder Hawthorne, please. DO you go to the club in Rochester Hills?
ZulwarnGames says: Not currently. I might make my way out there occasionally. I've spoken with a couple people out there online in the past. I have middle-aged kids, and the travel makes things difficult, so online play is likely my bread and butter going forward.
SallyAnn3 says: Then I'm glad we are an option for you, 6 days a week :)
ZulwarnGames says: By middle-aged, I mean middle school aged. I realized I should have been more clear. :P
horus93 says: Middle aged kid...seedy looking dude with a scraggly beard, walks around in a bath robe, will water down your liquor if you leave the house for a few hours. Lol!
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:02 AM
No hesitation today. A flush with 2 fives, magic 11, possible run and balking toss. A "wasa special"!
MiketheExpert
1125 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:53 AM
Was really the only choice I seriously considered today....I suppose (4 Q) could be worth a look, but best hand prospects for the flush and 4 lead make this lead the pack by a considerable margin today.
Annabella
77 votes

Joined: January 2024
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:41 AM
Mrob, said it well- again! Have to agree with Eolus, those clues are clueless….and, JQT, my brain is stretched! 30 minutes of my life I will never get back, haha! Thanks to y’all & have a great day.
RubyTuesday
915 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 11:17 AM
Flush please, with a nice Q 7 throw to my opponent.
Coeurdelion
5597 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:03 PM
I'll look at A-4-5-7C (7D-Q) and A-5-7-7 (4-Q):

A-4-5-7C: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.32) = -¼pt

A-5-7-7: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.46) = -½pt

Potential:

A-4-5-7C: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 77 + 15xXs = 31 cuts. Plus 9 club cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-5-7-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 15xXxs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/10/12pts with AAA, 2222, 3333, 6666, 77, 8888 = 21 cuts.

Position:

Dealer only needs 18pts to reach 2nd street positional hole first. So I'll play Defense to try to hold opponent back.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think the flush will peg best and be harder to read.

Summary:

A-4-5-7C is slightly better for starting value by ¼pt and it has guaranteed improvement with 31 cuts for 7-10pts. Plus it should peg better and also has an extra 0.20pt. potential for a club cut for the flush. So I'll throw the 7D-Q.
HalscribCLX
5320 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:03 PM
At 21-26* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total___W7 %____W8 %
A-4-5-7C___7.98+(-2.59)+(-4.06)=1.33____15.6____16.8
A-5-7-7____7.13+(-2.93)+(-4.20)=0.00____11.6____14.0

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
A-4-5-7C______37.6____58.9
A-5-7-7_______37.2____60.8

A-4-5-7C is better f or expected averages by 1.33pts and is appreciably better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 7D-Q to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead the A and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Points
A____________________2.01
4____________________1.90
7____________________1.83
5____________________1.56