Monday 3:05 AM

I went with 77

   

Monday 3:12 AM

I tossed the 77. If I knew the 7 would be cut ...

   

Monday 3:37 AM

My opponent found one of those sevens. Now 8-A to put in the crib. I like the ten potential in the main hand. dec

   

Monday 3:57 AM

Considered the flush, but I want to keep those 7s together.

   

Monday 4:03 AM

Well, this time I went with the flush lol. And I'm quite wrong as it's 0.4 or 0.5 south of 5J and 77. Not sure what I meant in the OP about A577 being better defense than A5TJ, if anything it's probably a bit worse...

I'll point out that this is technically an exception to the rules of thumb, you'd expect 5J or the flush to be best. But as MtE put it in a similar puzzle recently tossing 77 is just the "natural" way to handle this kind of hand (paraphrasing).

   

Monday 4:23 AM

Kept the flush for greatest number of starting points

   

Monday 4:33 AM

Nice dozen in my hand with the 5-J in the crib.

   

Monday 4:53 AM

We could go with the FLUSH and Toss (7c Tc), or we might stash a PAIR via Toss (7 7), or we could perhaps surprisingly stow the Touching Cards of Toss (T J), and of course there is always the Traditional Toss (5 J), which incidentally is "suited" 🕵🏼‍♂️ here, so no Twenty-Nine-Point Crib is possible). Let's examine each of these ideas:

Keep (A 5 7 7) and Toss (T J) is the most surprising ❗ find, as it can reach a Hand of Eight Points or more after Seventeen Cuts (AAA, 3333, 6666, 77, 8888), and the surprise is probably two-fold, in that not only is it the best Pegging Hand, but it entails a Crib Value of around 4.5 Points (although it's just considered an "Also-Ran" Dealer Discard, RAS places it about a Quarter Point HIGHER than other sources);

Keep (Ah 5h 7h Jh) and Toss (7c Tc) is an obvious idea, and not only does it begin with a nice FLUSH at a value of Six Points, it also stands to 🌱 grow and become Eight Points or more after EVERY Cut, but almost astonishingly, not a Single Cut can add more than Four Points, so it can never exceed Ten Points! And in addition, it involves a weak Crib Value of around Three Points (although once again, RAS places it about a Half Point HIGHER);

Keep (A 7 7 T) and Toss (5 J) looks to be the more traditional approach, and yet it can reach a Hand of Eight Points or more after only Nine Cuts (AAA, 77, 8888), but it does allow us to get the most "energy" ⚡ into our Crib, as Toss (5 J) has a Crib Value of around Seven Points;

Keep (A 5 T Jh) and Toss (7 7) is what's left standing if we rule out those other ideas, and it's not a poor choice since it can reach a Hand of Eight Points or more after Twenty-One Cuts (4444, 555, 9999, TTT, JJJ, QQQQ), and it allows us to get some fairly good "energy" into our Crib, as Toss (7 7) has a Crib Value of nearly Six Points.

Let's eschew both the FLUSH and Toss (5 J) and Toss (7 7) and place the 'PEAR' 🍐 in our Crib today.

After the quixotic 7 Card Cut, we now still have just Four Points in our Hand, but with prospects for an excellent Crib.

A good bonus 💲 💰 question might be: Knowing that a 7 Card Cut shall occur, how would this affect your decision? In a cursory glance, I think Toss (5 J) might now rule the day, but Toss (T J) may be chosen by some, and even Toss (7 7) with its very hopeful Crib prospects might also get a few takers!

World News Thought -- It's very sad about the terrorist attack that occurred in the Crocus City Hall Concert in Russia last weekend: If an incident like this happened continuously every single day for ten years in a row, it would almost equal the number of deaths (thus far) from the Special Military Operation. 🤔

Wordle 1,010 4/6 (Guess Two Fizzled; even "XYLYL" 🧪 would have been better!)

🟩⬛🟨⬛⬛
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛⬛🟩⬛🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

   

Monday 4:55 AM

I have studied this hand in the past, although without a flush option. Keeping the sevens with an ace seems beneficial, and 5J is the third best throw to the crib. 5J can be considered like 23: if it's a close call, very often it's the go-to answer.

   

Monday 5:29 AM

As Dan stated above it’s a very close call but I like this pegging configuration with the A-if pone leads a K we can play the 10 on it and hopefully use our ace for the 31,enabling us to save our 5 for the next pegging sequence-another possible benefit is a 9 cut potentially being a bingo cut for us

   

Monday 5:56 AM

Up to 4 possibilities could all be considered, and I think I like them in the following order (from best to worst). Toss (7 7) seems like the natural break in this situation, leaving behind a hand which could improve significantly on many cuts, and would seem to potentially get a nice boost in the crib from the mid-card cuts (although the "unexpected 7" as witnessed today, chops that starting hand down all the way from a dozen to 4 pts - still tough to make this up in the crib even with the known triplet!). Next may be the surprising flush which begins with 6 points, even though it suffers from the poor (7 10) toss, it does improve on EVERY cut, and is a nice flexible hand which may perform better BOTH on offense and defense during the pegging. Next, and maybe surprisingly to some, would come the (10 J) throw AHEAD of (5 J), which I would put in a narrow 4th place today. (A 5 7 7) has a lot of latent hand energy (it improves on every cut except for a 4), and connecting cards (10 J) in the crib, although not quite as good as the likes of (6 7) or (3 4), often have the ability to "grow" quite well. Although (5 J) has the best technical crib throw of all these choices, the resultant hand leaves the most to be desired in my opinion,

   

Monday 6:28 AM

Every cut helps the flush, so minimum 8 in the hand plus at least one peg puts me in a good position after first deal. Not a huge fan of pairs to my own crib (except 5-5 of course) but if I had to toss a pair, 3-3 or 7-7 is a good choice.

Cut gives me 10 in the hand plus at least 2 in the crib so I'm looking pretty good after first deal

   

Monday 6:47 AM

My priority was putting the 5 in the crib, and the flush wasn't worth it.

   

Monday 8:46 AM

Agree with SallyAnn3, no flush and 7-7 to crib

   

Monday 11:52 AM

Not much to add at this late stage. J5 would've been my second choice.

   

Monday 12:09 PM

I liked the 7-7 to my crib more than holding onto the flush.

   

Monday 12:32 PM

The (7-7) is one of the better one star tosses. Defense to the lead. See Rob's post above.

   

Monday 3:37 PM

5 J to my crib, keeping the 7s and A in hand. Nice turn up.

   

Monday 4:33 PM

Do we keep A-5-7H-J (7C-10), A-7-7-10 (5-J) or A-5-10-J (7-7) or perhaps even A-5-7-7 (10-J)?:

A-5-7H-J: 6pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.23) = 9¼pts

A-7-7-10: 4pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 11pts

A-5-10-J: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 9¾pts

A-5-7-7: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.61) = 8¾pts

Potential:

A-5-7H-J: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/10pts with 555, 6666, 77, JJJ = 12 cuts. Plus 9 heart cuts for 1pt extra for the flush and 1pt extra for his nob = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.

A-7-7-10: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 77, 8888, 101010 = 19 cuts = 9/46 = 41.3% up to 8/12pts with AAA, 77, 8888 = 9 cuts.

A-5-10-J: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 9999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10pts with 4444, 555, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 21 cuts. Plus 9 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-5-7-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/10/12pts with AAA, 2222, 3333, 6666, 77, 8888 = 21 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to reach the average 16pts or more safely.

Pegging:

I think the flush will probably peg best.

Summary:

A-7-7-10 is best for starting value by 1¼pts over A-5-10-J but A-7-7-10 has the least number of cuts for improvement and only 9 cuts for 8/12pts. The flush has guaranteed improvement and 12 cuts for 9/10pts plus it has an extra 0.39pt. potential for a heart cut. Also it should peg best so I think it will catch up the 1¾pts on A-7-7-10 therefore I'll throw the 7C-10.

   

Monday 4:33 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-5-10-J___6.63+(-2.07)+5.79=10.35____37.6____50.5
A-7-7-10___5.39+(-2.07)+6.77=10.09____35.1____49.4
A-7-7-J____5.59+(-2.13)+6.52= 9.98____35.4____49.9
A-5-7H-J___8.83+(-1.96)+2.97= 9.84____37.1____50.2
A-5-7-7____7.09+(-2.22)+4.32= 9.19____34.8____48.5

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
A-5-10-J_______25.7____23.7
A-7-7-10_______24.6____24.3
A-7-7-J________24.4____23.9
A-5-7H-J_______26.7____24.5
A-5-7-7________25.5____25.3

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.