March 24, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0-0*  ?
37%
25%
24%
9%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 235
mrob2199
1438 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 3:03 AM
Going to try for a non picture or 5 cut( which obviously didn’t happen)-highly camaflouged pegging hand-lead the 2
Inushtuk1 says: Would you ever consider the Ace lead Rob? Some folks like to make the percentage play here, and make the 7 response.
dec
6361 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:52 AM
That is my take also. Better be clever with the pegging now. dec
Gougie00
5733 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:02 AM
I tossed the usually harmless A7 and kept the KQ to prevent any Jacks from being cut. Got a bonus with the 5 starter. Lead the 2 and play dodge.
MiketheExpert
1125 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Sunday 4:04 AM
I think the intention of this puzzle is to keep the higher value pegging cards perhaps, because (Q K) often performs poorly in the opponent's crib. I believe I've tried it this way some of the time, and overall been less than pleased with the results (especially getting a cut such as this). Must have had a hunch, so I thought I'd try starting with the 4 points and keep the "sweet 16" instead (A-5-Q-K). (2 7) is perhaps a mediocre throw, but when a face card is cut (J through K) or a 5, I think you'll often be glad you kept it this way. I'm just not a "huge" fan of the other pegging hand arrangement, which has often been my experience.
MiketheExpert says: If a "mid-card" 7 or 8 is cut, of course you will want to have kept it the "other" way :)
MiketheExpert says: I find the "lone A" here is not a much of a liability with the 2 face cards. Leading a face either means you can pair a fifteen and score a 31-2 with it a good amount of the time, or else you can drop it on the 2nd play without a lot of damage taken, as you can usually raise the count on your next play after, or even play the 5 with relative safety, so not too concerned about these "danger" cards.
MiketheExpert says: The times you may get burnt playing this way is if dealer hand contains the (A-5-9) combo. In that case, might give up a 15-2, as well as (31-4) by trying for those 4 pts which work most of the time...What can you say, nothing is ever perfect, right?
horus93 says: Another would be against AA68 - play into the sixteen, give up five for 0. Another would be 2349 - you give up five for 0 there, too. Another would be AA3X - five for 0, again. Etc. Not that I think it's incorrect to just keep the sixteen here, I think it's a close call, but there's definitely risk involved.
MiketheExpert says: Against (2 3 4 9), if pegging went (K-9-?), I would be dropping the A next rather than the 5 for 20. Thus I'd probably limit the damage to only a 31-2 on the first round by doing so. On your other example too, if pegging starts out (K-8), you could see that playing the A now also might "limit" the damage by avoiding a triple or 31-4, but here you are still likely to give up at least 4 or 5 pegging points, as even if he pairs (K-8-A-A), you are still giving up another 31-2 it seems with his remaining A. Definitely can't cover all the risks all the time.
horus93 says: Yeah that makes sense; I was presuming maximally offensive pegging, so for example against 2349, you lead K, he plays 9 for 19, you play Q for 24 hoping to catch a "six", etc. Still you see even if you sort of pull back, you end up coming out behind just because of the nature of a three-card fifteen vs a three-card sixteen. But yeah I'm sure either of us could come up with some vignettes where 25QK gets stomped; just overall, that's why I value sixteens for offense but somewhat avoid them when thinking defense. After all, if the A5X sixteen works, it's often "only" net +1 over the other way.
horus93 says: Actually pretty good illustration of why it's hard to totally accept the bot's pegging figures - how one hand pegs against another depends a lot on what the other person does... how they read the demands of the score, etc. So it'd be really difficult to figure pegging means accurately! You'd have to know how the population you're playing against is likely to play in any given situation.
MiketheExpert says: Yes - sometimes I may have the intention to start out offensively during the pegging, and switch mid-play. As in the above examples, it may seem more perilous to continue on offense, unless it is desperately needed. But, seeing as we cut for a 10-pt hand, I am also interested in limiting dealer's pegs if it seems more prudent.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:07 AM
If we Toss (A 7) or Toss (A 2), two discards which are surprisingly very similar, and hold the two Face Cards, we have Thirteen Cuts (555, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK), or 13/46 equals 0.283 or about a 28% chance of obtaining Eight Points or more; but if we Toss (Q K), in spite of having a better Pegging Hand, then the *most* we can get is Eight Points with just Three Cuts (777), and 3/46 translates to just 6.5% odds. Therefore, I'll reluctantly Toss (A 2) today, and after the splendid 5 Card Cut, we now hold the illustrious Ten Points Maximum, so let's lead the Queen with confidence. 🌴 🌴 🌴

Wordle 1,009 3/6

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JQT says: Toss (A 2) seems like a rare Pone Discard, and it is, but in comparison with both Toss (A 7) and Toss (Q K), which is notably also an "edge" chance for a RUN in the Crib, and with the "gap" shot of a RUN on 'our side' of the board after a 6 Card Cut, I think that this places Toss (A 2) into viable territory and legitimate contention for discarding today. By leading the Queen from our Face Card duo, we take the possibility of the Dealer being able to peg two different RUNS (T-J-Q or J-Q-K) off of the table, and we're left with just the King and thus only the latter chance for the Dealer to later score a High Card RUN.
MiketheExpert says: Hi JQT: Your way seems to have a little more "hand" insurance (i.e. the 6 cut, which could be harmful to throw of 2-7), and somewhat mitigates the impact of a potentially hazard mid-card cut, than with keeping the A instead. Perhaps may lose some of that protection on the "pegging" end (pairing a 15-2 by dealer I imagine is less than comfortable here). I find it interesting that many of us are offering "alternative" ways, I'm guessing to the expected combo which I believe HAL will choose today, due to the higher "pegging" value of (A-2-5-7).
JQT says: It's hard to 'make up for' those Two Points LESS that we start with after we Toss (Q K), since doing so involves 'chucking' one Fifteen-Two worth Two Points, or 50% of our possible starting potential. In this particular puzzle, it's unusual in that both our Pegging Concerns as well as our Candidate Discarding Decisions likely only appear to be within the realm of perhaps a HALF of a Point and up to about One Full Point.
horus93
1282 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 5:44 AM
I could probably think my way into something else but this is what I'd do in a real game.

A7 is a bit safer than 27 (like 0.1 safer lol). Even though I like to balk the crib with weak cards as starting pone, 7K or AK seem to go too far in that direction... these cards aren't quite *that* bad, and A7 isn't that dangerous. As for QK, I hate those XX balks because they can really pop on you; two parts cream, one part TNT. It wouldn't surprise me hugely if the bot goes with QK because of its mean hand minus mean crib plus mean pegs formula, but I gotta disagree. It tends to value the pegging of a hand like A257 more than most human players would. Liam puts it about a point south of throwing A7, A2, 27, for hand value, but roughly minus a point to his mean crib.

"Why not throw 27, virtually the same crib value dude you're talking about a tenth, and keep a 3-card sixteen?" Because those 3-card sixteens can get completely stomped against some kinds of fifteens. I think of sixteens as an asset on offense, but a liability on defense, and these cards are weak enough that I'm willing to trade a bit of my scoring for defensive pegging.

"Why not throw A2?" I think of it as more dangerous than A7 and 27 and the lack of a low rank could get me in trouble in the pegging (again, thinking mostly defense). Though with delta today Liam calls it as inbetween A7 and 27.

For all the talk about thinking mostly defense - that cut throws me to offense, obviously. 10 points pat, and dealer will probably score well above average. Five lead.

Fentesk is surely right re: the cold of Buffalo. It wouldn't hold a candle to Minnesota. Still plenty cold for me! It has the same climate classification as Helsinki or Moscow. You can't even breathe hardly if you're walking into the wind (though same goes for Minnesota I'm sure). Virginia is nice and humid and buggy and hot - doesn't bother me a bit, I spend most of my free time on the porch when the weather's warm and don't even have AC. My one sister lived in New Orleans for three years without air conditioning so it must be a familial trait.

One nasty thing about Buffalo weather - it's cold and snowy and windy a huge chunk of the year; then when it's finally summer, there are hornets and yellow jackets everywhere, moreso than anywhere else I've spent time. The worst part of Virginia is that there is poison ivy everywhere. A few years ago I got it all over my face taking a shortcut... wouldn't wish that on a dog I didn't like. And my favorite part of Virginia weather, as well as all subtropical places, is when you get those massive afternoon thunderstorms. Another + for Virginia weather - when it does snow, even a couple of inches, the whole city shuts down. People walk down the street in crosscountry skis, you can put a beer in a sock and saunter down the middle of the road. Sort of a carnival atmosphere with strangers talking to each other etc. But that only happens every 3 years or so.
horus93 says: Some corroboration of my distaste for the QK - per Liam, anyway, it's actually *more* likely to give up an 8+ crib than A7 is, even with the delta of a five in the hand. Granted, it's only a 2% boost, but that's pretty startling when you consider the QK is about a point safer by means. And couple that with really hurting the hand score; it's a clever play to throw QK but might be *too* clever, and I definitely do stuff like that sometimes but not with this puzzle.
horus93 says: The reason I personally would play balls to the wall offense with that cut is - if I can peg a couple, I'll be at 12* next hand, only four points short of par. But dealer, on the other hand - defense would be useful if I thought there was a decent shot of holding him to say 12 or less (i.e. only +6), but with a five cut that's just not very likely; and I'm just not afraid of his scoring "in the front", because to jump ahead, he'd have to get to around 32 this hand, and that's not likely either, even with wild pegging (5 lead etc). Sort of like if you had good cards at 105-106* - there'd be no scope for defense there.... unless your cards got you to 117* or so and you wanted to stop dealer counting out, 4th street is different lol. But same general idea. Then again, I tend to lean in much harder to offense or defense than others do, and that's almost a stylistic question. I suspect, in reality, my way is right sometimes, and the more nuanced way is right at others.
horus93 says: Or to put it in a less jargon heavy way - it seems more important to me whether I get to, say, 11* or 13*, than it does whether oppo gets to, say, 15 vs 22.
zeke76
1399 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Sunday 6:09 AM
72 somehow seemed safer than 7A.
james500
3926 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 6:26 AM
I'll try A2, but did consider QK.
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Sunday 7:31 AM
Both A/2 and A/7 scare me, the when-in doubt-Steinmetz toss of QK killed my few points, the 2/7 was leftover.
Inushtuk1
1490 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 9:23 AM
On Offense I prefer this way. On Defense I would keep A-2-5-7(K-Q). On Optimal (A-7). Lead the Q and take any pegs offered. The Q lead as the most likely card retained by the Dealer is the K, and we don't want our X-Card lead paired here.
sterno
455 votes

Joined: December 2020
 
 
 
Sunday 10:25 AM
A-7 or A-2, seems very close from the view of my hand. I tossed A-7 since there is a higher chance of a crib straight with the latter.

Good cut...I am not in the herd this morning which seems to have valued keeping the A or 7 higher than I did. Checking Liam... tossing the A with either the 7 or 2 was the highest scoring play. Liam did score tosing the A-2 as better for the enemy - probably due to the potential of a crib run.
guideontheside
345 votes

Joined: July 2020
 
 
 
Sunday 10:49 AM
I felt bad about my choice, until I saw that Rob also did it this way! Same reason.
SallyAnn3 says: Validation helps comfidence :)
Coeurdelion
5597 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 1:30 PM
I think the choice is between 2-5-Q-K (A-7), A-5-Q-K (2-7) and A-2-5-7 (Q-K) but I'll also look at 2-5-7-Q (A-K):

2-5-Q-K: 4pts - 4 (Schell: 4.89) = -¾pt

A-5-Q-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = -1pt

A-2-5-7: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.49) = -2½pts

2-5-7-Q: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.30) = -2½pts

Potential:

2-5-Q-K: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 8888 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10pts with 3333, 555, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK = 17 cuts.

A-5-Q-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 9999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10pts with 4444, 555, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK = 17 cuts.

A-2-5-7: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 = 24 cuts.

2-5-7-Q: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/7pts with 3333, 555, 6666, 8888, QQQ = 18 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone p[ositional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense to try to reach or exceed it.

Pegging:

With 2 low cards, a 5 and a middle-card I think A-2-5-7 will peg best.

Summary:

2-5-Q-K is best for starting value by ¼pt over A-5-Q-K and 1¾pts over A-2-5-7. However, A-2-5-7 has considerably more cuts for improvement and 24 cuts for 6-8pts which is a big increase from 2pts. It also should peg best so I'll throw the Q-K.
HalscribCLX
5320 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 1:30 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
5-7-Q-K____6.26+1.48+(-4.85)=2.89____22.3____21.2
2-5-Q-K____6.17+1.35+(-4.65)=2.87____21.9____21.7
A-2-5-7____5.17+2.07+(-4.42)=2.82____21.5____20.8
A-5-Q-K____6.17+1.41+(-4.87)=2.71____21.4____20.6

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
5-7-Q-K_______38.3____52.7
2-5-Q-K_______37.0____51.8
A-2-5-7_______38.1____53.0
A-5-Q-K_______38.1____53.2

5-7-Q-K is best for expected averages by a very slim 0.02pt. but 2-5-Q-K is very slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So although it is the very start of the game, as the difference in expected averages is very small, I'll decide based on win/Loss %s and select the A-7 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the Q and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Points
Q______________________1.40
K______________________1.33
5______________________1.19
2______________________1.13
sharp21
182 votes

Joined: January 2010
 
 
 
Sunday 1:33 PM
Keep the most points in my hand and the Ace for an 11 count to help with pegging. Lead the queen
Eolus619 says: hello..welcome..fyi.. 2 card "11s" fr Pone rarely work..Pone needs three cards..dealer needs two..but dealer would prefer three card 11s with a pair..all the best
sharp21 says: Thanks! Been playing a long time but still figuring it out
wasa
3021 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Sunday 5:21 PM
Late to the game again!
RGM
901 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Sunday 9:02 PM