November 27, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
24*-27  ?
48%
32%
13%
3%
0%
Total votes: 245
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 3:02 AM
2-3-T-T starts with a point more, but I'll go this way instead.
Eolus619 says: You and Coe!...did not know you two were that like minded!!!!
glmccuskey
4100 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 4:39 AM
I’ll keep my points. Aggressive in the pegging.
mrob2199
1434 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 4:43 AM
Close call today-the 2347 is somewhat sneaky in that every cut improves your hand to 5 so basically it’s a 5 point keep not a 3 point keep-coming that with the 10-10 to the crib and the added pegging flexibility and I’ll go this way
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:01 AM
I was not looking for a 9. Disappointed.
Maybe the crib has something. Ugh.
Eolus619 says: Gougie00…a question about your success in ACC ecribbage ..when you win six or more games do you have a feel for how many of those games you were dealer? thx
Gougie00 says: Almost all. Losing first deal means you are starting off 7 holes behind.
Gougie00 says: Not convinced the website isn't rigged. I either win 8 games or lose 8 games.
Eolus619 says: thx....very helpful
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus: Over thousands of games RAS wis 66% if having opening deal and 51% if not. Have talked to other ranked players and the difference in those cases has been 15-16% as well favoring opening dealer. Dealer has huge advantage, counts first on game ten if not winning on the ninth deal. More later.
Eolus619 says: Yikes Ras...quite a difference indeed
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:11 AM
A nine go with an eight discarded. dec
Eolus619 says: hi dec…same question for you… a question about your success in ACC ecribbage ..when you win six or more games do you have a feel for how many of those games you were dealer? thx
dec says: honestly to put a percentage I guess about a third of the time I am the dealer. But as long as the cut advantage isnt too great against me I stay out of skunks and win the majority of close games on fourth street. To win the close ones I feel is my strength. dec
Eolus619 says: thx dec….your results say you have many cribbage strengths for sure !
Eolus619
1341 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Sunday 5:37 AM
As Rob pointed out, this keep really starts with five since every cut helps. Like the run open at either end. Like the low cards for pegging. Like my board position with Pone short of 44 by 17.
sterno
453 votes

Joined: December 2020
 
 
 
Sunday 6:44 AM
Toss the 4-7 vs the pair of tens. In my hand the choices are close in rank. But I prefer to have the 4-7 in my crib vs the tens. I can't remember the last time a pone tossed 5's to my crib.
MiketheExpert
1121 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Sunday 8:03 AM
It's a closer decision than appearances, since every cut improves the keep of (2 3 4 7) with a (10 10) throw while keeping a "preferable" pegging hand with a magic 11. But once again, there are a lot of "2-pt" improvements only, and the 10's are one of the weakest "pair" throws into your own crib. Even though not every cut improves (2 3 10 10), it still improves from its original 6 pts on many, and (4 7) has a decent chance to improve on cuts from 6 through 8 which don't help the hand. I don't think anyone is satisfied with the 9 today, though I may have preferred the chances of having the 10's stowed away in the crib.
MiketheExpert says: Actually a fair number of cuts give more than 2-pt improvement for (2 3 4 7), requiring careful counting. Other than the obvious deuce through 4 creating a double run, (A,5) add 3, while (6,8) adds 4. 2-pt improvers are (7,9, all X cards).
Inushtuk1
1486 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 8:13 AM
Echo Rob above. It's really 5 + 2 = 7 starting points, as opposed to 6 the other way. Plus the Magic Eleven. Close call though. Wouldn't argue to vehemently with those who chose to keep 2-3-10-10.
MiketheExpert says: Hi Mike. I'd still call it 5 starting pts vs. 6, because your hand is only guaranteed improvement after the cut, while (2-3-10-10) starts with six. (2 3 10 10) is also a bit "awkward" on the pegging, but I was also prepared to defend if I had a more favourable cut - would rather avoid the risk of giving up a triple. After the lousy 9 cut though, I'd probably take the risk and take pegs where I can with pone 17 points back at hole 27.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Mike. Canada just made Fifa history with their first goal.
MiketheExpert says: I was just about to say, Go Canada :-) !! 1-0. If they can play the way they did against Belgium, I'm a believer!
Inushtuk1 says: Now we're down 2-1 at the half.
MiketheExpert says: A loss would eliminate Canada from contention, as unfortunately Morocco has defeated Belgium 2-0 in our pool.
Inushtuk1 says: Well, it's all over for Canada. Getting back to this very interesting puzzle. I think this is one of those hands where Ras and Hal will play it differently as Dealer, depending on whether they choose an offense, optimal, or defensive posture. On offense and optimal, they will likely choose to keep the run. On defense they will toss (4-7), to put some space between their high cards, and low cards. My take is this should be an optimal strategy, and the expected averages to include the net pegging will favour the (10-10) toss. But the chances for winning, especially if we had been in, or approaching a critical position, will favour the (4-7) toss. And had that been the case, Halscrib would have gone with the better winning %'s. Bottom line, early in the game ,keep the run. We might be able to trap a lone 5, or an Ace.
winesteward48
834 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Sunday 10:13 AM
I like the pegging possibilities and chances of a double run with this keep. Plus, how many times has the opponent tossed a K-10 into the crib? We now have at least 7 points (5 and 2) with the chance of a double run in the crib.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 2:01 PM
I'll look at 2-3-4-10 (7-10), 2-3-4-7 (10-10), 2-3-10-10 (4-7) and perhaps 4-7-10-10 (2-3):

2-3-4-10: 5pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.23) = 8¼pts

2-3-4-7: 3pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.76) = 7¾pts

2-3-10-10: 6pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.72) = 10pts

4-7-10-10: 2pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 8¾pts

Potential:

2-3-4-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 1010 = 19 cuts.

2-3-4-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/7/10pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888 = 25 cuts.

2-3-10-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 1010 = 19 cuts.

4-7-10-10: Improves with AAAA, 444, 5555, 777, 8888, 1010 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6pts with AAAA, 444, 5555, 1010 = 13 cuts.

Position:

It looks like its 3rd deal and we've scored 2pts below average and Opponent has scored 1pt over. We still positional advantage and ought to be well past the 34pts needed to hit 44pts on average next hand. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 4-7-10-10 will peg best with a pair and the magic eleven.

Summary:

2-3-10-10 has the best starting value by 1¼pts over 4-7-10-10 but 2-3-4-10 and 2-3-4-7 have many more cuts for improvement and while 2-3-4-7 has guaranteed improvement and 25 cuts for 6-10pts 2-3-4-10 has 19 cuts for 8-12pts so I think I'll throw the suited 7-10.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 2:04 PM
At 24*-27 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
2-3-10-10__8.37+(-2.22)+3.80=9.95____29.1____45.6
2-3-4-7____6.50+(-2.13)+4.64=9.01____28.4____41.9
2-3-4-10D__7.98+(-2.17)+3.13=8.94____27.7____42.5
4-7-10-10__3.43+(-2.26)+6.72=7.89____24.0____40.1

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
2-3-10-10_____25.9____30.6
2-3-4-7_______30.7____35.6
2-3-4-10D_____29.0____34.6
4-7-10-10_____26.4____35.7

2-3-10-10 is best for expected averages by 0.94pt. and is appreciably best for Win %s and considerably lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 4-7 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Inushtuk1 says: I'm surprised Hal went with Defense. I'm sticking with Optimal, and 2-3-4-7(10-10). I will peg aggressively here.
Obscure
95 votes

Joined: September 2022
 
 
 
Sunday 3:03 PM
Returning now from Thanksgiving break, I've been happy to see CribEDGE's streak of sensible choices over the last several days remains unbroken. Here's its result for today:

Keep: Two of Hearts, Three of Hearts, Ten of Diamonds, Ten of Spades
Toss: Four of Clubs, Seven of Spades
Worth: 6 / Bonus: 3
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:21 PM
With n/d needing 16 points to reach 2nd Street CPZ (43-47), will choose defense to include the pegging. That means retaining the six points and playing off the lead. Will not pair the lead even if a ten spot. Pairs Royal for six pegs just might be the boost needed by n/d to reach that 2nd street zone. Of course, would play a ten spot on a five lead. Did not agree with HalscribCLX choice of strategy yesterday. Today the cribbot and RAS are synchronized.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Would you agree with my assessment that on offense, or optimal, that 2-3-4-7(10-10) was correct? Also, I asked a question at the end of your post from last Wednesday. Could you go back and read it and then respond here please. Sorry to be such a pain.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1 You are correct. If choosing an offense or optimal strategy, 2-3-4-7 with 10-10 discardhas the edge by about 1/4 point. That's probably closer than one would imagine as peg values are quite close, not as some would suspect. More later.
Ras2829 says: Now let me get to your question relative to 0-0* (2h-2d-3h-6s-6c-9c) of 11/23/22. Holding 2-3-6-6 does gain less than .1 of a point in peg avoidance, starts with hand potential of 2.25 points less than 3-6-6-9 and offers crib potential of 1.7 points advantage. The potential hand size of 3-6-6-9 is just too much for the 2-3-6-6 to overcome. Had the remaining hand been one of six points (such as 6-6-9-10), the 2-3-6-6 would emerge with a small advantage. It just can't compete with the 8 point start of 3-6-6-9.