June 29, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Bottomfeeder
114-115*  ?
65%
9%
7%
6%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 232
BottomfeederCut was J spades
JQT
3539 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:16 AM
We are Pone at Hole 114 in a close endgame, with the Dealer at Hole 115.

Even without a Jack Cut (which will happen nearly 9% of the time), the Dealer can 'strike' from Six Holes Away and peg out, so we must be careful.

But if we can retain enough points to reach the Finish Line, we should be in good shape at such a Relative Position.

I always discuss position "as if" I had not looked at my cards yet, and this is a habit I recommend. Once we see all of the pretty colors, and lovely (or not) cards, we can often not see our predicament quite as clearly.

We have about four ways to begin with Four Points, or about three too few! Therefore, we are more concerned with how the Cut Card may affect what we retain, and (at this juncture at least) less concerned with the pegging.

We could Toss (2 2), Toss (9 T), Toss (9 K), or Toss (2 9). I'm not saying all of these are equal or even good, but each discard leaves us with Four Points to begin, and I think we must choose one of these.

We simply cannot risk Keep (2 2 5 9) and Toss (T K) since after Eight Cuts (3333, 7777) we would only begin with Two Points!

Notice that all hands that begin with Four Points have a 5 Card in them; this may be our main problem later, when we try to defend during the pegging. But maybe alongside two Deuces, the 5 Card can be gotten rid of more easily?

I am fond of the two Deuces for pegging, but in terms of pegging defensively, I wonder whether these are an asset or a liability. If we retain these, this means we could probably either Toss (9 K) or Toss (9 T). We don't really care at all about the Crib Value today, since we shall lose unless we go out with our First Hand Show.

If we do hold those Deuces, we should probably Keep (2 2 5 K) and Toss (9 T), as this looks to be the most aggressive pegging hand that we have available to us today.

I believe it's a close race between Toss (9 T) and Toss (2 2) today, and since we can use any help we can get, let's examine how many chances we have for help after the various choices:

Keep (2 2 5 K) and Toss (9 T) has Thirty-Five Helpful Cuts (AAAA, 22, 3333, 555, 6666, 8888, TTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKK), although only Fifteen of these (AAAA, 6666, TTT, QQQQ) provide just Two Points;

Keep (5 9 T K) and Toss (2 2) has Thirty-Two Helpful Cuts (AAAA, 555, 6666, 8888, 999, TTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKK), although only Fifteen of these (AAAA, 6666, 999, QQQQ) provide just Two Points.

Toss (9 T) seems to carry the day, but I still worry about the Dealer's ability to peg off of those Deuces! However, if we fail to get a decent Cut Card, those Deuces could help to win the game during the pegging!

I'll Keep (2 2 5 K) and Toss (9 T), but it's really a close call here. If we do get a good Cut Card, we can maybe just lead a Deuce and be on our merry way. If not, we may have other troubles!

After the 7 Card Cut, we now still have only Four Points in our Hand, so we need to develop a PLAN. We need to peg Three Holes, and this means we can no longer lead a Deuce!

Let's lead the King and do our best, which means after the Dealer grabs (15=2), we must risk PAIRING it. But our main hope is to PAIR our own Deuces, and, along with a "go" from our Opponent, we can score those Three Holes we need to WIN!

The Puzzle composer, Bottomfeeder, says that the Jack of Spades was the Cut Card in the actual game. "Two for His Heels," and now it's (114-117*), so the Dealer needs to peg only Four Holes to beat us; and yet we would begin with Six Points, only needing to peg One Point in order to 'cover' the distance. I might lead the Deuce if this were the case.
scottcrib says: The four 8s don't help the 2-2 toss.
scottcrib says: Never mind. :-(
JQT says: Why Do Submariners Play Cribbage? https://youtu.be/0zYl44Z_14s
Eolus619 says: hey JQT…just trying to keep you from getting board with traditional wordle… https://mashable.com/article/wordle-hard-mode
JQT says: Self-imposed Hard Mode on WordPlay: soLar, HaLve, ziLCH, mULCH, GULCH - https://wordplay.com/shr/163986720
Eolus619 says: as a good friend of mine would say….”no step for a stepper”
Hillchem says: Keep and lead a ten, or keep and lead a K? I'm reminded of these famous last words: "But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine it from what I know of you. Are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemies? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you...But you must have known I was not a great fool; you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me." I want to safely lead a X card. I suspect dealer would be trying to peg aggressively, so the dealer might be inclined to keep a 10 rather than K. Thus, I should keep the K?
JQT says: If someone disagrees with you, they are often a good source of information. When someone you don't agree with dislikes a particular song or movie, try to find out what else they don't like, since it is often the case that you will like that, too. Try to perform the task or face the person or thing in life that you fear most, and remember that the bird sings sweetest while stealing thy fruit.
MiketheExpert says: I think the difference is so negligible (probably a few hundredths of a %) in keeping the 10 or K, that it really doesn't matter in my humble opinion. It's all about me counting out, so it doesn't matter to me whether dealer would be more inclined to pair a 10/K opening lead or not, as giving up these points is just not likely to matter if we are unable to meet our own requirement. So in that case, why not balk the opposition for that additional 0.2% of a chance that dealer will fail to reach hole 121 from 6 pegs out :-)
MiketheExpert says: Of course, the J cut as in the submitter's example could throw a wrench into it (if dealer were at hole 117), then those 2 pts could indeed matter!
MiketheExpert says: Probably if J is cut, I am not leading either one now (10 or K), but needing to peg only 1 pt, will opt for the safer deuce instead!
Inushtuk1 says: Sheesh! Here I thought JQT kept the K merely because it was less likely to be trapped in a run. Only J-Q could do that. Whereas the 10 is vulnerable to an 8-9, or 9-J as well. Also John, that youtube video is no longer available. At least, not on my computer.
Gougie00
5094 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:09 AM
No winners today, the 7 doesnt help any hold. Yuck. Lead the 10 and try to parlay the 2-2 for 3 points.
dec
5718 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:12 AM
A 2 3 5 6 8 Face Cards those are our needed cuts. Depending on if we need to peg here, I think the King is still the lead here. dec
dec says: ten of spades is the lead. dec
mfetchCT425
1149 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:40 AM
If I got a cut for enough would have led a 2, but now will lead the K and hope to get our needed 3 pegs with the 5 and/or the 2s.
james500
3306 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:53 AM
Hoping for a favourable cut. 7d wasn't it.
5 lead.
Ras2829
4544 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:26 AM
At hole 114, choosing an offense strategy (certainly so after seeing the starter card). Need three pegs, lead the 10, take any two offered, try to retain 2-2. If dealer plays a five on the ten lead, pair the five from count of 20. If pai gets split, still a pretty good chance to get a "go" with remaining deuce.
Ras2829 says: Don't get shaky over dealer scoring six pegs. Dealer average is 3.5 pegs; so, six is a real stretch.
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:54 AM
Probably not gonna work out but the keep pair for pegging.
Fender Bass says: Kept the 2/2/5/10
Fender Bass says: Kept the 2/2/5/10
fentesk
598 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:01 AM
I want to hold hand that gives me the best chance of 6+, which here is 2-2-5-X (checking later I see 5-9-10-K has the most cuts for 7, but fewer for 6) and if I'm short after the cut, I want the the 2s.

I'll lead the 10 as I aim for enough pegging points for the win.
MiketheExpert
502 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:01 AM
This keep has 35/46 cuts for 6+ pts, with a very good possibility of earning 1 pegging pt for pone. Despite the fact that it balks the dealer's crib, which is essentially meaningless, it just plain gives the best odds, while keeping 4 pts in our hand. Unfortunately, the 7 is one of those cuts that help nobody, and don't lose hope, we are going to have to come up with 3 pegging pts - another reason for keeping this hand with our pair of deuces...let's hope that we can squeeze these in during our pegging to score the needed points here. And if all else fails, the fact that we threw (9 K) could mean a 0 + 0 or 2-pt combo for the dealer between hand+crib, and we could cash in our favor from praying to Jesus and live to see another deal beyond this hand. Anything can happen, right?
MiketheExpert says: Leading the 10 in continuing with this strategy to try and peg 3 :)
farleysma
101 votes

Joined: March 2022

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:31 AM
Need to peg 3 here, and that’s probably not going to happen without the 2s. I’d lead the 10.
Nelson
39 votes

Joined: June 2022

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:53 AM
We cut a 7, because of course. Will try to steel my nerves and build on my 4 points with aggressive pegging. Leading the 10 and will close my eyes and pair a 5, also looking to squeeze in a 2,2 if possible. Fingers crossed! We can do it!
Sally3
251 votes

Joined: October 2021

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:59 AM
and here I thought I was crazy to hold this :)
Ras2829 says: Hi Sally3: If concerned that dealer will score on the opening lead, the K is slightly safer lead. King is least likely card that dealer will hold to peg although a five will score on either X-point offering.
Sally3 says: Thanks for the pointer, RAS :)
wasa
2422 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:07 AM
Lead the T, hold back the 2s. Kept the cards with the best chance at 6 points.
Eolus619
726 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:11 AM
dec has counted the winners already. Keep the pair for pegging strength in numbers. After the 7 cut, Yogi Berra will be tested today