November 25, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by James500
83-94*  ?
65%
34%
0%
Total votes: 235
mrob2199
1406 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:16 AM
Better to keep the flush and sacrifice the 1 point today-dealer is 27 out so it’s imperative we limit his crib as much as possible-K8 is a safer toss than K2-normally I like leading the 2 from this hand for offensive pegging,but we don’t want to trade pegging points here even if draw first blood -if deaker matches our 2 lead it could get very ugly as well-lead the 8 and peg very cautiously-if dealer responds with a picture dump the 2-we don’t want to be stuck with that if the count reaches 25 and dealer could have the A23 combo-don’t mind giving up a couple goes here knowing the crib should be relatively safe
Mark6
702 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:37 AM
Plan is to Balk the Crib as strongly as I can and Play Defense so I might get to count 4 Hands
james500
3894 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:42 AM
Congrats to Hillchem and Jmath, both of this parish, for their excellent rankings in this season's Cribbage Pro online tournament. Two very strong players, as the leaderboard does attest.

From these cards, I'd sacrifice a point to make the safer discard. Am I being too cautious, or am I prudent?
Hillchem says: Thanks so much, James! I had a once-in-lifetime storm of good luck there. Definitely punching above my weight. I’ll be just a likely to get a run of bad games next time. That being said, if there is any credit to be given here, I’ll pass it along with an reference to Newton to the shoulders of the collective body of dailycribbagehand. I ended up winning my grassroots club in the summer so it’s been a pretty good 14 months. Thanks to everyone!
JQT
4135 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:01 AM
Usually, I give a FLUSH about an extra point worth of consideration.

But today, we're losing significantly, and while Toss (2 K) might even help our Opponent a bit more than Toss (8 K), we need help as well!

The Double RUN will not only tend to average more than the FLUSH, it can grow to Twenty-Four Points, while the FLUSH can only grow to Twenty Points.

We need all the help we can get here, and even if we might not peg as well, I'll select the Double RUN today and lead an 8 Card.
dec
6326 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:05 AM
Easier to get more aggressive next hand. The plan is keep them short on their next par. Of course 96-97 would look better for us. Keep the pegging reasonable here and at worst trade three for two. Eight lead stay the plan. dec
glmccuskey
4074 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:49 AM
I like the safer discard of the 8-K. Will lead the eight and peg defensively.
zeke76
1366 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:08 AM
Like JQT, I went this way to try to get the really big hand.
Gougie00
5701 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:29 AM
I went defensive with the flush. Lead the 7 and play off.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:48 AM
With dealer just short of 4th street CPZ (95-99),I like the 8-K better than 2-K to their crib for defensive purposes. If we can balk their crib, maybe we can use our 3 counts in next two deals to win this one. Would lead the 8 and playoff, taking only safe pegs.
mfetchCT425 says: By the way, yesterday’s excellent puzzle can also be found at the cribbage forum website where you can read some analysis by top tier players: http://www.cribbageforum.com/Ask2003_09.htm
RubyTuesday
896 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:30 AM
JQT and Zeke say what I thought.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:05 AM
Going for the points.
Eolus619
1312 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:18 AM
All the above provide insightful reasons for their choices I contribute this. I was reading an analysis in the cribbage pro blogs about what statistically ( now well into 10s of millions of hands analyzed ) are the reasons why “A” rated players are better / more successful than B,C & D rated players...it is no news they score more points ...but according to cribbage pro the main reason is “ Better players are better at keeping their opponents from scoring points than lower rated players are ....interesting ..so have a think about this as you decide discards and pegging strategy
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:08 AM
Holding the flush provides a safer discard and gives up very little (one point). Even though the 3 cut doesn't help my hand, I am glad to have the Deuce in my hand and not in the dealer's crib.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 10:52 AM
With 11 in hand getting to about 94-95, need to balk as much as statistically possible.
james500 says: Hi Joe, hope all's well. Congrats for getting in to the top 50 of the Cribbage Pro online rankings. Must have missed your name when I scanned through the list this morning, else I would have mentioned you in my original post. Not my intention for you to feel slighted.
joekayak says: Thanks. I barely squeaked in. Easy to miss.
Ras2829
5124 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 11:12 AM
Dealer has the deck short of 4th Street CPZ (95-99). Holding the dozen is tempting although keeping opponent short on this final leg of game seems more important to RAS. Think the winning percentages might favor holding the dozen points by a point or two. Even so will peg defensively. Don't like the 6-7 as gets trapped so often by dealer five for run of three and go. So will lead the 7 and escape with the deuce. Treat that Thanksgiving turkey tenderly. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!
SallyAnn3
881 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 12:59 PM
Don't usually throw away a dozen, but this is a pretty flush with a great balking toss at this point of the game :)
Jazzselke says: Nice 17 card last night Miss Sally
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:16 PM
It seems to be between the flush and the double-run:

2-6-7-8D: 11pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.20) = 6¾pts

6-7-8-8: 12pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.45) = 7½pts

Potential:

2-6-7-8D: Improves with AAAA, 222, 5555, 666, 777, 88, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 14/15/18/20pts with 222, 5555, 666, 777, 88, 9999 = 19 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

6-7-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 5555, 666, 777, 88, 9999 = 23 uts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 16/20/21/24pts with AAAA, 666, 777, 88, 9999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is nearly at 4th street positional hole and we're way behind where we need to be so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think the flush will peg slightly better.

Summary:

6-7-8-8 has the better starting value by ¾pt although the flush has an extra 0.20pt for the diamond cut potential. They both have the same number of cuts for improvement but 6-7-8-8 has the better maximum and 16 cuts or 16-24pts. It may not peg quite so well but even so I'll throw the 2-K.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:21 PM
At 83-94* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynami expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total____W2 %____W3 %
6-7-8-8____14.70+(-2.61)+(-4.58)=7.51_____18.9____41.3
2-6-7-8____13.50+(-2.85)+(-3.89)=6.76­­­_____14.3____40.6

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
6-7-8-8________35.3____48.9
2-6-7-8________33.0____50.7

6-7-8-8 is better for expected averages by 0.75pt and is significantly better for Win %s although it is very slightly worse for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-K to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts._____Loss %
7_______________________(-2.16)____________0.1
8_______________________(-2.23)____________0.3
6_______________________(-2.61)____________0.1
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Thursday 12:36 AM
Late to the party.