November 23, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by duke62
110-108*  ?
37%
21%
21%
14%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 233
duke62Seems like a low chance to win, but should we toss 8-9, Q-K, or K-K?
Mark6
702 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Monday 3:03 AM
Not giving him a Pair or breaking up the Run
mrob2199
1408 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Monday 3:22 AM
From this position we have to go for the 2 cuts that will put us in the dead hole before pegging commences( the 5 or J) the dealer is only 13 out so playing defense and keeping the 8/9-10 together isn’t the most efffective option-even if we cut an 8,9, or 10, it would still leave us 3 short and that hand is not exactly a pegging powerhouse-also there are only 9 cards that improve our hand to 8( the three remaining eights,nines and tens), while we have 8 chances to improve to a 10 point hand( the 4 fives and 4 jacks)-I much prefer 8 chances to move to 10 points over 9 chances to move to 8
JQT
4137 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:34 AM
Somewhat tricky, do we Keep (8 9 T ?) and seek Nine Cuts (888, 999, TTT) that give us Eight Points (still needing to peg Three Holes), or do we Keep (T Q K K) and seek Eight Cuts (5555, JJJJ) that give us Ten Points, (needing to peg just One Hole)?

Pegging even One Hole is NOT guaranteed when we are Pone, so I'll go with the latter idea and Keep (T Q K K) and Toss (8 9) today.

After the Trey Cut, we likely go down in flames, but in Cribbage and in Life, we can either complain and pout, or we can choose to embrace even our failures and do so in good spirits.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Monday 4:19 AM
Only chance?
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 4:39 AM
Tough spot to be in. Cutting a Jack or 5 makes it a bit more palatable.

Play the 9 and Queen as my first two cards to get the count high and say force me to say "go". Perhaps Dealer plays their hand out and I can get the Kings in back to back in the second play through.

10-8 with a 9 out of circulation may not be too costly, so maybe there'll be another hand to come?
RubyTuesday
897 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Monday 6:08 AM
My thoughts were the same as Mark’s, I didn’t want to lose the run or give up a pair.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Monday 6:33 AM
Only way to get 10. If we don't go out, dealer has hand, crib and pegging for 13 points, a tough proposition to defend.
Jazzselke says: DeLynn's chart has the odds for that proposition as 3-1.
Jazzselke says: Ras is correct, holding dealer to 12 1 in 5.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 6:49 AM
Hoping for the double run. Failure. The idea was to lead the King, have the dealer reply with a 8, 9 or 10 and pair it. Chalk up an "L"
SallyAnn3
882 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Monday 7:38 AM
yuck. I went this way thinking I might peg somewhere, and not help her crib much. I see now that the 5 cutis the only real hope
JQT says: One cannot easily criticize this hand and discard decision of yours! As Pone at Hole 110 with such cards, we are likely to lose such a game, regardless; and even after many of those "most likely still losing" Cuts (such as 6666, 7777), this (8 9 T K) hand might be improved, while the (T Q K K) is more entirely a "hit or miss" proposition. After the Trey Cut, you in fact start off with One Point MORE than (T Q K K), and you might easily average to peg Two Points MORE as well. This shall reduce Spread Points if you are in a series of games in a tournament. Therefore, you are now not only certain to reduce the Spread Points by which you will likely lose (since you discarded more defensively), but additionally, you could actually still win, and you'll do that more often than those of us who chose to throw the more-dangerous Toss (8 9) discard. If winning this single game is the only factor, then this choice might be inferior; but in an actual game setting, it could very well be the correct approach in order to "cut your losses" and maybe even boost your odds as well ... it's not quite certain yet to me. What is certain is that your choice is not at all "yuck"! This is a complex endgame situation, and in my opinion, it's still not so crystal-clear how to best proceed.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Monday 7:53 AM
With opponent within 16 points, I’m going to be aggressive and play to win with this ugly hand. 8 cards (four 5s and four Js) get us to the dead hole before the pegging which should be enough to get us out. Holding the 3-card straight leaves us 3 holes short even if we get the cut for 8, and as Rob so eloquently stated above, this is not an ideal pegging hand.
JQT says: Good Analysis! In summary: having four Ten Cards (or "X" or Face Cards) as Pone gives us a very good chance of obtaining at least a "go" and winning this game, unless the Dealer can hit (31=2) "on the nose." Thus, Eight Cuts (5555, JJJJ) with just One Point needed during the pegging should be a better proposition than Nine Cuts (888, 999, TTT) while still needing to peg Three Holes, should we instead hold the 8-9-T RUN.
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Monday 8:37 AM
Others say it well. Need a J or a 5 cut. Maybe opponent will have a 2 pt hand & crib, and 0 hand again. It's happened to me before!
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Monday 9:22 AM
All X pointers can sometimes peg 1. Get the cut and peg 1 seems to be the best (but not good) chance.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 2:20 PM
I like to steal a game perhaps on the next deal. This hand playing to win , need a nickel or Jack cut to start. dec
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 2:33 PM
It's a closer call that one might suspect. Limiting dealer to 12 points is five to one. Are we searching for 8 cards in 46 (5555, JJJJ)? That must be about one chance in 5.7. Have observed HalscribCLX choose defense in such positions. I'll go for it from the outset. Once seeing the starter card and knowing that I have two points, will lead the ten spot. Don't think there is even a remote chance that dealer will pair my opening lead. Dealer might be holding a King as an escape card though and my Kings are well removed from the 10 spot that dealer might just pair if I hold K-K intact. Probably still lose the game though by a very small spread. Bad hand here although many games are lost from 9-10 points out with first count coming up shy of game hole.
JQT says: Maybe lead the Queen to 'chase away' any potential King Reply, and then hope that during a second volley of later pegging that we can 'lead into' a King and score (30-7) to end the game, perhaps at Hole 119 or Hole 120!
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Think the success. The 10 does not suggest the present of Kings as much as the lead of the Queen does. Even so your point is well taken that dealer would not likely drop the K on a Queen though might be quick to do so on the 10 lead. Good insight as usual!
Ras2829 says: Don't know what the intent of that first sentence was.
Ras2829 says: Does seem that all that should matter this day is the winning percentages. What else should be considered?
JQT says: In a multi-game tournament setting, I believe that managing our overall 'Spread Points' could possibly justify a more defensive approach today, as I discussed after the posting by SallyAnn3 above.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 3:46 PM
We need 11pts to get out but with this hand there isn't a cut that can achieve this. However we can score 10pt and then only need to peg 1pt and that is with 10-Q-K-K. If a 5 or a J is cut then we have 10pts. So that's 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4%. Therefore I'll throw the 8-9.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:03 PM
At 110-108* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Offense___________Win %______Loss %
10-Q-K-K__________15.6_______65.6
8-9-10-Q__________10.9_______69.3
8-9-10-K__________10.7_______60.4
9-Q-K-K____________7.2_______62.1
8-Q-K-K____________5.5_______66.6
8-10-K-K___________5.5_______55.9
9-10-K-K___________5.1_______58.0
8-9-K-K____________4.1_______60.8

10-Q-K-K has the significantly best chance of winning so I'll select 8-9 to discard

After the 3 cut I'll lead a K and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.______Loss %
10_________________1.20______________46.0
K__________________1.12______________43.7
Q__________________1.09______________46.7