November 22, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by SallyAnn3
97-101*  ?
53%
44%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 208
SallyAnn3I was playing a very good ACC player. Normally, would hold the dozen and toss face/5. Took a chance instead, and got very lucky on the cut and pegs!
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 3:07 AM
IMO I don't really want to toss 5-Q to opponent at this position. Rather I will keep 6 points with a good chance that will the hand will increase to at least 8 points with a cut plus give opponent a balking 9-Q in his crib.
Rosemarie44 says: delete "will"before "the hand."
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 3:09 AM
Can allow them a maximum of 19 points during the next two hands, against an average of 26.

3c lead from my 3-3-5 eleven.
mrob2199
1407 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 4:25 AM
Don’t like the percentages of cutting the remaining 3 in the deck for a game winning 24 hand-much prefer the odds of cutting one of the 4 fours left for a 21 hand,with a decent shot to peg a 4 and the maximum defensive discard of Q9 to opponents crib
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:50 AM
that 101 position aids in making this the decision for me also. Those 3-6-9 decisions often the lowest odds chances to get the homerun hand. Three diamonds lead . dec
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 4:54 AM
By popular demand!
kelliher
304 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 5:06 AM
I'm keeping the 12 points and hoping for help from a 3 6 or 9.
Eolus619 says: morning...what discard decisions a player makes is a matter of where he/she is on the board and relationship to opponent..this effects strategy he/she decides to follow @ that point..for the “other” side of the coin read dec and rob ...particularly comments about %s...for me , as a new player to the game, the best help I have given myself so far is to fully understand the concept of critical position zones ..and thus how I make my discard decisions based on board position .....all the best ..PS...there is nothing wrong with your choice ..just learn the reasons for the “other” choice and have a think about it
kelliher says: Thank you Eolus619. I am soooo from the old school. Really have a difficult time with all the strategy. Fortunately, I'm LUCKY!
Eolus619 says: lucky...very good indeed...one other tip i learned from Ras about helping with strategy....there are three decision points 1) BEFORE the hand is dealt look at the pegs and decide what you need to do verse your opponent 2) look at the dealt hand ..then decide if your strategy decision you made @ 1 is confirmed or needs to change and then 3) look at the cut card and again decide if strategy decisions made 1 & 2 are confirmed or now must change ...looking at the pegs BEFORE the time pressure starts ..and thinking through where you and your opponent are on the board will help you make staregy decisions easier and faster as the Cheshire cat advises...if you don't know where you are going then any road will take you there ...can’t emphasize enough the ability to understand and apply critical position zone approach ...i fully understand how the words difficult, frustrating and cribbage all fit together ..often in the same sentence !
Eolus619 says: Ras...has a https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/strategy.html youtube cribbage class...i suggest you go to this link and then week 8...#3...and take the video class segments on CPZ.. https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/strategy.html
Eolus619 says: fat finger the above ..Ras has a youtube class on cribbage ...suggest you go to this link..then start to watch week 8 part 3..this is on CPZ... https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/strategy.html
cribbagepogo says: She is already very good. You may be sorry if you improve her too much. Won the TOC.
Ras2829 says: HI cribbagepogo: Ah yes, have heard that kelliher could teach me a few things and might take only one class!
Eolus619 says: my mistake ...i thought she was inexperienced .base on my mis reading the comments ......i bow now!
Eolus619 says: now out now !
Eolus619 says: BOW
Mark6
702 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 5:17 AM
Same as Kelliher , can’t get off the 12 Points even giving them the 5 . Bad Cut here for me Today , good Cut of a 4 for me yesterday .
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 5:46 AM
A little better odds to cut a 4 vs the last 3, and the balking 9-Q may leave dealer short if they have a sub-par hand. Nice puzzle Sally.
zeke76
1367 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Sunday 5:57 AM
Don’t think we can risk the Q5 toss.
Eolus619
1313 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 6:36 AM
morning ..trying to understand Hal’s decision yesterday...even though we are dealer... did he chose to analyze Pone’s winning / losing chances because he, as dealer , chose defense ..and thus wanted to show the influence of dealer playing defense for specific holds effecting Pones future chances of winning the game in five or six more hands ? Would have thought he would have analyzed dealer chances regardless of choosing offense or defense .
JQT says: Yesterday's puzzle had Pone tied with us at Hole 60, and since Pone tends to average scoring Ten Points, and since Hole 70 is the Third Street 'Par' Hole from which we wish to become the FIRST one to be dealing at or beyond par, this makes DEFENSIVE PEGGING vital, as it's the only way we can currently attempt to inhibit Pone from reaching Hole 70.
Eolus619 says: got it ...thanks
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 6:37 AM
No win situation.
james500 says: Congrats for yesterday's Ecribbage tournament.
james500 says: Congrats for yesterday's Ecribbage tournament.
SallyAnn3 says: WTG oh Gold yesterday! At leaset I lost to the winner!
SallyAnn3 says: WTG oh Gold yesterday! At leaset I lost to the winner!
SallyAnn3 says: on* least*
SallyAnn3 says: on* least*
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 6:55 AM
Most places on the board, other than perhaps to start a game, I would Toss (9 Q).

This way, instead of just ONE 'Ka-boom, Ka-bang Cut' we have Four Cuts, or a 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 which is nearly a 9% shot at Twenty-One Points.

And since we discarded defensively, we have an additional small chance to proceed and score a Hand and Crib as Next Dealer.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 7:44 AM
With the herd. Just cut a 4 like Sally apparently did!
Jazzselke says: 3335
SallyAnn3
882 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 8:18 AM
So apparently, all of the things I've been learning on her paid off today, as I thought of how many hands were left in the game, and did it "right" today. Maybe I am more motivated by money to meet my expenses, trying to make points, and having live people around to tell me my mistakes! lol. In the game, I went for broke. Must have already had a down card. Yes, I cut the 4, and now know that when I post something, I'm going to use the green box to say what the cut was :)
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 10:50 AM
With the pegs as are, looking at the six cards, it's defense for sure, and that will remain SAFE after seeing the starter card. Dealer at hole 101, if scoring the average 16 points, will have first count upcoming deal from 117. Should be able to shave a few holes from that 16 average with the 9-Q discard average as 42.224% are of two point or less and a zero cribs are quite common with 9-Q. That's the hope here. Can we limit dealer to ten points? It's 6.5 to 1 against doing so. That's the challenge; so play the safe 3C, not likely that dealer will pair, if so, take the six pegs for the triple. If no pair of lead which is very unlikely, let's ditch that 5C second card played (fake flush though not of much value in this situation) if that looks SAFE. Then we'll be holding the very safe 3-3.
Ras2829 says: What are the odds of non-dealer scoring 24 points? That's 91-1 against doing so. It's 6.5 to 1 against limiting dealer to 10 points. So, it's nearly 15 times as likely to do that than to win this game by scoring 24 as n/d.
Ras2829 says: What about n/d scoring 20 points to reach hole 117 with chance to peg out as dealer of next hand? That's just 29-1 against doing so.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 6:21 PM
It seems to be between 3-3-3-9 (5-Q) and 3-3-3-5 (9-Q):

3-3-3-9: 12pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.34) = +4½pts

3-3-3-5: 6pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = +2pts

Potential:

3-3-3-9: Improves with 3, 6666, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 16/20/24pts with all cuts.

3-3-3-5: Improves with AAAA, 3, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 12/21pts with 3, 4444, 7777, 999 = 12 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is 5pts past 4th street positional hole and we're 14pts short of where we would like to be, so I'd like to have the chance to peg/hold out next deal therefore I'll play ultra-defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense 3-3-3-9 will peg well but with a 3-card magic eleven I think 3-3-3-5 will peg more.

Summary:

In this position expected averages are of lesser importance to winning chances and although 3-3-3-9 has one cut which will get us out with the 3 for 24pts and 3 for 20pts (999) 3-3-3-5 has four cuts for 21pts (4444) plus it will peg better whilst the 9-Q is approx. 3¼pts safer in opponent's crib. Therefore I'll throw the 9-Q.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 6:23 PM
At 97-101* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
3-3-3-5_____9.48+1.65+(-4.09)=7.04____3.4____16.1
3-3-3-9____13.13+1.04+(-7.57)=6.60____3.4____10.4
3-3-5-Q_____6.65+1.80+(-4.21)=4.24____0.0____11.1
3-3-5-9*____6.61+1.54+(-4.24)=3.91____0.0____10.6

Offense______L1 %___L2 %
3-3-3-5_______14.1___71.3
3-3-3-9_______27.3___82.9
3-3-5-Q_______13.9___75.6
3-3-5-9*______14.7___75.8

3-3-3-5 has the best expected averages by 0.44pt and is very muchbest for Win %s and Lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 9-Q to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 3 and plat Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3___________________(-2.20)
5___________________(-3.65)