Saturday 3:11 AM

Yikes what an ugly hand USA!!! From this position I will play for the miracle 3 cut-with the A,2, or ,4 helping as well-keeling the AA26 might technically provide me with more cuts that help,but the max would be 8 points-which doesn’t do much for us here-if we get the miraculous 3 cut and peg a few with our aces we could get pretty close to 80,which would enable to have a chance at getting into position if we caught a good hand

   

Saturday 3:19 AM

Best for expected averages tossing 2-6. This hand with two magic elevens, has more cuts 14 cuts at 5, 6, or 10 points); than holding A-A-2-6 (36 cuts keep this hand at 2 or 4 points)

   

Saturday 3:25 AM

I'm not likely to get a Jack or 5 from my opponent, so 10-Q doesn't interest me.

The cut probably won't be a 3, so no "hopenosis", in keeping AA2 together. 6-X doesn't excite me either.

AATQ still benefits from a 3 cut, (in hand and box since I discarded a 2), as well as many other cuts.
2-6 could yield points with an X-Middle discard from Pone, or alternatively a W-I-D-E high-low type.

   

Saturday 3:40 AM

The only way to eke out a reasonable Crib today is by sending either Toss (A A) or Toss (2 6) into the Crib, yet either of these ideas will separate our Aces from the Deuce.

Thus, an arrangement such as this will have a wide range of ways in which different players can approach it. And while the computer program may certainly show how one discard may vary a few tenths of a point from another here, I think what's most important is to proceed with a plan.

As far as Cribs go, Toss (T Q) even 'chimes in' today better than say Toss (6 T), so I'm leaning toward simply Keep (A A 2 6), as this should at least peg well, and yet it hurts to place those "bricks" into my Own Crib.

This is perhaps one of those non-consequential-looking hands that can indicate more about the individual preferences about what sort of player you are, more than it will reveal what is specifically right or wrong. Just try to have some reasoning behind your decision, and a plan to go along with it as well.

After the 4 Card Cut, those who decided upon Keep (A A T Q) and Toss (2 6) will be happy, as will maybe later also those who chose Toss (A A); we shall never know, since we don't get to see what Pone discarded: It could have been Toss (2 5) for all we know!

   

Saturday 4:15 AM

A 2 3 4 or 5 6 7 8 which cut might give you a dozen in the main hand ? I measure to 95-96 looks like I am playing for the next two hands to reach position first. Offense on keep , defense on the pegging now. dec

   

Saturday 4:32 AM

I like keeping the A-A-2 intact for pegging purposes. Went back and forth between 6-10 and 10-Q. Decided to keep the 6 with the hand for a few more cuts that would help us (essentially middle card cuts now come into play with this hold). Maybe dealer has to toss a stray J to our crib to fill in the gap toss of 10-Q.

   

Saturday 5:02 AM

What a horrid hand. I tossed 6 10 to my crib as a least bad option rather than best.

   

Saturday 5:21 AM

Personally, I would put the 6 and either tenner into the crib.

According to my algorithms, the 6 has to go to the crib. For the second card, the average point difference is almost moot. Adding the deuce to the crib has the highest average at 11.53.

   

Saturday 5:30 AM

Played for the 4 Cut instead of the 3 Cut this time and got it . Lucky guess

   

Saturday 6:15 AM

Yuck. I'll toss the 2-6 in the crib and hope for help.

   

Saturday 6:17 AM

Very little difference in potential hand score whether making this choice or discarding 10-Q. The 10-Q 3.166 (837) is a full point less in own crib, is nearly as low-scoring as 10-K, and tallies 0-2 points 45.069% of the time. Although 2-6 to own crib is not a shining star it does average 4.154 ((628).That in itself is enough to give A-A-110-Q the edge. Have nothing to defend here short of CPZ (69-73),am choosing an offense strategy coming out of the box, again when looking at these six, after seeing the starter card, and will play on the lead. Yes, would pair an Ace, 10 or Q lead, and play the 10 spot if a five is led. Would play the 10 on a King lead. On other leads will advance the count with the 10/Q attempting to keep A-A intact. Admittedly A-A-2-6n has higher offensive pegging potential though not enough to offset that full point edge in the crib.

   

Saturday 7:52 AM

Can't be too many worse hands than this one. 6X a very poor choice to crib, 10Q not much better. 26 the best, but separates the deuce from the 2 aces. So by process of elimination 10Q is my very shaky option.

   

Saturday 7:54 AM

Threw 2-6 in hope something might happen in crib...

   

Saturday 10:12 AM

More cuts to help the hand...maybe catch a 10 in the crib

   

Saturday 2:11 PM

What a terrible hand. Let's hope the pone has an equally bad hand. I'm already in position to receive the next deal, so I won't get aggressive on pegging unless the pone leads an Ace.

   

Saturday 3:46 PM

I'd like to keep A-A-2 together for the double-run and for pegging. 6-10-and 6-Q are poor discards to our crib so that leaves 10-Q. So I'll keep A-A-2-6.

   

Saturday 4:08 PM

At 60*-60 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W5 %____W6 %
A-A-10-Q___4.09+(-2.15)+4.00=5.94____50.0____42.7
A-A-2-6____4.26+(-2.22)+3.30=5.34____49.2____37.2
A-A-2-Q____4.17+(-2.26)+3.16=5.07____48.6____42.5
A-A-6-Q____3.83+(-2.28)+3.48=5.03____48.3____44.4
A-A-2-10___4.17+(-2.30)+3.13=5.00____48.4____42.2
A-A-6-10___3.83+(-2.33)+3.45=4.95____47.9____43.9
2-6-10-Q___1.83+(-2.15)+5.20=4.88____45.0____43.3

Defense______L5 %____L6 %
A-A-10-Q______53.0____39.8
A-A-2-6_______59.2____46.3
A-A-2-Q_______52.0____40.3
A-A-6-Q_______50.1____38.3
A-A-2-10______52.3____40.7
A-A-6-10______47.9____43.9
2-6-10-Q______45.0____43.3

A-A-10-Q is best for expected averages by 0.60pt it is also one of the best for Win %s and one of the lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-6 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).