Tuesday 3:12 AM

Can’t really see any other way to hold it today-looking for a 3,6,7,9 or A cut to put us in the dead hole or out-if we need to peg 1 lead the 3-we are hoping to have the dealer use up an extra card for the initial go,so we want to get rid of our smaller cards and retain the higher ones-it also helps that we aren’t worried about dealer pegging out even if we have to give up runs to get that precious go

   

Tuesday 3:16 AM

Hope to cut an Ace,3,6,7,8 or 9, 20/46.

6 = 13% of 46, 1 = (almost) 2% of 46.
20 cards = (3*6 cards) + (2*1 cards) =
20 cards = (3*13%) + (2*2%) =
20 cards = 39% + 4% =
20 cards = 43% chance of a "good" cut.

   

Tuesday 3:31 AM

Another Day ... Another Puzzle!

We need Nine Points as Pone to clinch this game; and meanwhile, we could allow the Dealer to peg as much as Thirteen Holes and we could still prevail!

But if we do 'fall short,' then the Dealer is very likely to sail into 'safe harbor' and claim VICTORY, since the Dealer only sits Fourteen Points away from ruining our day. This should *probably* rule out some DEFENSIVE ideas immediately, such as Toss (6 T) and Toss (8 J), although if the Dealer were further away from VICTORY, we might actually consider these as viable. Not here, and not today.

It's nice to know all of the subtleties surrounding our predicament before we even pick up and look at our cards here: We must furnish some means of getting those Nine Points necessary to WIN, and do so regardless of how much we 'give up' during the pegging. To put it another way: It's FULL ON OFFENSE today, yet perhaps not to obtain the MOST points, but the most reliable hand to get us NINE points!

AT first glance, it may not be clear whether Keep (3 6 6 8) or Keep (6 6 8 T) offers us a better shot at winning, and this is why it helps to have played as many possible games in order to develop a sense of which hand is likely to deliver us what's needed today.

Clearly a 7 Card Cut boosts (6 6 8) to a clean VICTORY, so our discarding decision shall revolve around those 'other' possible Cuts that may or may not help us, alongside those 'other' cards. For instance, a 9 Card Cut helps add Four Points to the 6 Card PAIR such that it relegates the Ten Card and the potential 8-9-T RUN as being virtually superfluous.

Meanwhile, a Trey or 6 Card Cut could really help a LOT if we retain the Trey; and so as is often the case, Lower Ranking Cards can frequently produce MORE POTENTIAL SCORING OPPORTUNITIES.

Also, the Jack, with its chance for Ten Cards that add at least another point for Nobs, is probably a bit of a Red Herring today.

And so, we revert back to what we know: the (6 6 8) is for certain our best 'ticket out of here,' and all we have to really debate is whether the Trey or the Ten Card is the better "kicker" to help us. And from the previous discussion, it ought to be clear: while the Trey may not give us the highest scoring capability, it does for sure give us more chances of delivering us the extra amount we need to prevail and WIN today.

We shall Keep (3 6 6 8) and Toss (T J) with confidence, even though we may not win anywhere close to 50% of the time, for the fact is that any other choice in my opinion is very likely not even nearly half as good. Any 'help' we stow in the enemy Crib is *insignificant* and that's because we have already determined that if we don't reach the Finish Line with our Pegging plus First Hand Show, this game is most likely over, regardless.

After the 9 Card Cut, we should lead a 6 Card from our PAIR, as it leaves us with the Maximum Remaining Variety of Cards. This should be our best option, since we only need to peg One Hole in order to WIN today.

   

Tuesday 4:09 AM

Hoping for a middle Card Cut and got one now can I get a go?

   

Tuesday 4:21 AM

Sixes and sevens cuts are game count winners. A 4 7 8 9 are add on points. That's quite a few cuts there. Agree with above on three lead, hopefully next card with have them use an extra card to get that go or we end up with last play. dec

   

Tuesday 4:30 AM

We need 9 points and this is the best hold with the most cuts for 8 or 12 points.

   

Tuesday 4:48 AM

Pegging is the most important strategy for a win. Start with the 8.

   

Tuesday 5:02 AM

When you need a go, lead low.

   

Tuesday 5:50 AM

Agree with those above. Don’t worry about the touching cards to their crib at this position. Have to go for the win. Lead the 3.

   

Tuesday 5:55 AM

I had to give myself a chance to win with a 6 or 7 cut. The 9 is useful. I have to figure out how to peg 1 hole now. Lead the 6?

   

Tuesday 6:20 AM

Play defensively and hope to pick up one pegging point along the way. Lead the 3.

   

Tuesday 6:43 AM

Been said better than I can say it.

Tuesday 7:40 AM

well...this hand appeared to me during an internet game...after it ended i looked at Brown & there seemed to be five possible choices which lead me to submit it ...any puzzle that produces this type of consensus is not a top shelf. challenge...better challenge next time i hope!

thanks for your comments

   

Tuesday 7:43 AM

Go for the win, like Gary's saying.

   

Tuesday 9:18 AM

Gary's a poet. Need a Go? Lead the Low!

   

Tuesday 11:10 AM

I thought I’d commented at lunchtime but appear not to have done so - I chose the same as most of you but with a lot less thought.

Tuesday 11:36 AM

With dealer 14 holes from a win, got to go with the greatest hand-scoring potential. Who has first count on the next deal? Can we limit dealer to ten points (1 of 7.5) on this deal? Good-bye 10-J. Needing one peg after the helpful starter card, retain the three largest cards, lead the trey, keep playing off the small end of the hand, take any pegs offered along the way, and ought to hear a go on the play of the 8 as last card held.

   

Tuesday 12:19 PM

I'd tell you all a joke about Covid, but 99.9% of you won't get it. Guess we'll stick to Cribbage.

   

Tuesday 12:31 PM

   

Tuesday 12:31 PM

Oops: forgot my comment: 8-J, 10-J and 8-10 all seem to be helped by 20 cuts, but the J is enhanced by any spade cut, so I went with 8-10.

   

Tuesday 2:44 PM

Gone with the flow. not much doubt here.