Saturday 3:08 AM

Keep the 4 points and throw the potential of the 3-5 in the crib-horrible cut no matter which way we kept it

   

Saturday 3:20 AM

Have learned from this site that 3-5 is better than X-A or 4-A from this sort of hand.
Will the fact one of the X's is a Jack make a difference?

   

Saturday 3:32 AM

The four could be the K.. cut here. Fourteen faces still unaccounted for. Balanced strat here. dec

   

Saturday 3:38 AM

We enjoy a minuscule Two-Point Lead as the Dealer, and we could probably choose among several discards to our Own Crib today, including Toss (J K), Toss (A J), Toss (A K), Toss (3 5), Toss (5 K), and Toss (5 J).

I tend to like these in increasing order or preference, but it's more a matter of "style" of play, rather than one discard being vastly superior to another here.

As I stated recently, when I have a 5 Card with a RUN as Dealer, I often look for a profitable way to 'bust up' such a RUN! And today is a perfect example!

We get so much more power in Our Crib with Toss (5 J), and even with Toss (5 K), so I'll choose the former and Toss (5 J) today.

Toss (3 5) is also very interesting, but I prefer to place more 'oomph' in the Crib, and retain the perhaps slightly better pegging hand.

   

Saturday 3:45 AM

Just made sense to me to do it this way.

   

Saturday 5:05 AM

Tossing 5J is a strong option as the K in our hand reduces pone's pegs, and the J might meet up with cards in our crib, and it leaves us with the very strongly pegging hand of a34k

However the very conventional and obvious a4jk with the ten cards supporting the A4 pair seems to win today. 5 is inherently good in our crib and 3 not bad as a companion.

So a4jk it is, with a35k second.

   

Saturday 5:24 AM

The song is out of key! That 9 doesnt help anything. Peg aggressive if possible

   

Saturday 5:56 AM

For me the choices were A-4 and 3-5. I referenced JQT from a previous post which he repeated today...”“As I stated recently, when I have a 5 Card with a RUN as Dealer, I often look for a profitable way to 'bust up' such a RUN! And today is a perfect example! “ I tossed 3-5 verse his 5-J. Today

   

Saturday 6:37 AM

Standard toss, only way to hold a combined 6 points; A34X somewhat better pegging cards but not at the expense of 2 points.

   

Saturday 7:53 AM

   

Saturday 9:22 AM

I just like this hand lol. No analysis.

   

Saturday 12:41 PM

Learned something today. Now to remember it!

   

Saturday 2:09 PM

As a rookie I used to toss A-K, then I learned it was better to get the Jack into the crib and switched to A-J. Then I got educated and started tossing 3-5. But I always seemed to cut a card that would for me had I held the run together (3,6,8). Lately, I've come to appreciate the two-card '5' - I've always known the value of the 2-3, but I think the A-4 is under-rated. Nonetheless, I'm typically disappointed by this hand, so appreciate the various views and suspect that Halscrib will have the choices closely bunched.

   

Saturday 4:57 PM

I think we've had this hand a few times and I think I know the right discard but I'll examine 3-5-J-K (A-4), A-4-J-K (3-5), A-3-4-J (5-K) and 3-4-5-K (A-J):

3-5-J-K: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

A-4-J-K: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 10pts

A-3-4-J: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 8½pts

3-4-5-K: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.65) = 8¾pts

Potential:

3-5-J-K: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 7777 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 2222, 444, 555, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 20 cuts. Plus 10 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

A-4-J-K: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 555, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 19 cuts. Plus 10 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

A-3-4-J: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 6/7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 444, 555, JJJ = 16 cuts. Plus 10 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

3-4-5-K: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, KKK = 20 cuts.

Position:

On average if we score 26pts over two deals we will be 4pts past positional hole at 48pts as Dealer and Pone will be at 46pts so we have a significant positional advantage. I'll play Defense to consolidate this.

Pegging:

All these hands will peg well. Playing Offense I think A-3-4-J would peg best but playing Defense I think probably 3-5-J-K will peg best.

Summary:

A-4-J-K has the best starting value by ¾pt over 3-5-J-K and although it has fewer cuts for improvement it still has 19 cuts for 8-10pts and the benefit of 0.22pt for a diamond cut. Although it may not peg as well as 3-5-J-K I do not think there will be much in it. So I'll select 3-5 to discard to my box.

   

Saturday 5:56 PM

At 22*-20 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

______________Our
Offense__Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
A-3-4-J___4.93+3.41+6.52=14.86____53.9____37.5
A-3-4-K___4.72+3.39+6.73=14.84____53.3____37.0
3-4-5-K___7.98+3.48+3.37=14.83____53.5____37.9
3-4-5-J___8.20+3.52+3.07=14.79____54.2____38.4
A-3-4-5___7.07+3.80+3.74=14.61____52.5____35.0
A-4-J-K___6.39+2.39+5.78=14.56____55.0____41.0
3-5-J-K___6.59+2.74+5.18=14.51____53.8____38.3

Offense______L8 %____L9 %
A-3-4-J_______55.2____42.5
A-3-4-K_______54.9____42.9
3-4-5-K_______54.1____42.2
3-4-5-J_______54.2____41.8
A-3-4-5_______57.0____44.6
A-4-J-K_______51.5____39.6
3-5-J-K_______53.8____41.8

A-3-4-J is very slightly best for expected averages but A-4-J-K is appreciably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. However it is early in the game so I'll decide based on the expected averages and select the suited 5-K to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Saturday 6:32 PM

Why would you not go with the best win AND loss ratios? Despite it being early in the game, those ratios take into consideration the board position. With seven different holds that tightly bunched in terms of score, just one or two holes difference in board position could make a different choice more likely to win and/or less likely to lose. Isn't that the objective of this crazy game?

   

Saturday 9:01 PM

Have played this hand this way for a few years now with good results. The 5-J to my crib in live play has averaged 7.088 (1,678) 3/91. Quite superior to the 5-K at 6.726 (1,742) 591. The Jack is the key connector among the X-pointers. The King is at the end of the deck and misses runs entirely in one direction. BTW the suied 5-K only gains .04 over the unsuited combinaiton. RAS chooses off., off., def. and would pair a King lead since I have the Ace. Thast would give me four peg points if n/d leading from a apir of Kings. On other X-point leads would play the Ace for count of 11. On an Ace lead, would play the King for 11. ON a 2 lead would play the 4 to make the count 6. On a trey lead, would play the Ace. On a four lead would advance the count with the King. On a five lead, would play the King for 15-2 On leads of 6-7-8-9 would advance the count with the King, putting beyond 15 inb each case with anopportunity to pick off a small card for a run (sometimes to pairs whn no run possible) to end peggign sequence. After seeing that starter card 9 which seems to have no value to either crib or hand scores, wold like to nab a few pegs.
If you tossed 5C-KC, you can pray for that crib flush wjhich shows once in each 80 games played!