July 2, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
117*-110  ?
29%
28%
9%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 219
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 3:11 AM
The more of a particular rank I've been dealt, the fewer of that rank it's possible for my opponent to have been dealt, and the less likely it is that they can pair them during the pegging.

2-2-3-3 should be safe enough then, but I prefer 2-3-3-7 as with a hand of small cards, Pone may say "go" after my 2nd play and I'm forced to play my hand out. They then play their 3rd and 4th cards, (possibly for a pair or 15), and are then close enough to go out with their 1st count.
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 3:12 AM
End games are most difficult for me. This is my choice with today's hand.
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 3:32 AM
Tough today, not least because the bot is unlikely to give us meaningful data in what might happen playing Vs a human.

Today we can see that pone needs to hold his best hand, which could be something like xxx5 or similar. So I've held the 5 for the 2 points.

Also needing 11 points he's odds against to go out, but that depends on our cards.

I've kept 2235 hoping to score 3 for a pair or similar, e.g. x55342 and we win instantly.

Note that pone will have chosen his cards hoping for 10+ points WITH the cut, but the cut is not chosen yet. After the cut of 3 it seems that he might be sitting on quite a few bust hands like xxxx or xxx5, but with these cards we might go out anyway.
Eolus619 says: I I appreciate the feedback about W and L..NOT criticizing ...but two VERY knowledgeable players say ......hands or games Left ..so I will think about this from both perspectives
thelawnet says: not sure what you mean, but in general we expect a cribbage game to last 9 or 10 deals, from 0-0, and we might not be surprised if it lasted 13 deals, for example, which is 3+ deals more than average. OTOH if players need 35 (non-dealer) & 30 (dealer) points, then with 26 points in expected in 2 deals, we can see intuitively that there's a relatively small chance (less than 50%) that the game will be resolved in 2 deals, while 3 deals is 36/42 points on average, so 35/30 is within that 3 deal expectation, but equally we can see intuitively that the game won't ALWAYS be over in 3 games.
thelawnet says: 3 deals rather. and that when the players are so close to home there's no chance of it lasting 6 more deals, for example. I have discussed this before, but the 'W 3%' doesn't make that much sense as a way of considering the problem of 'what is our chance of winning?' This is because from any given position from 0-0 onwards, we have a fixed chance of winning before we know the cards. There's an attempt to calculate this here: https://www.orbitals.com/cp/calc/tblwin.html Whether it is reliable for humans I do not know. But such a binary % w/l exists for every post-game points total, so we only need to know the possible scores after this hand, and the % chance of each post-deal score occurring, and then multiply the post-deal score by the % chance of winning for each score (obviously 100% if we are at 121, for example)
Eolus619 says: Thank you again...JQT replied it was number of deals You replied it's the chance you win or lose in that number of games. So 2667 is 91.1% to win or lose in 3 games, 4467 is 89.7%, and 4466 is 88.2% That prompted my question I greatly appreciate the time you have taken to reply to me. I have enough feedback to analyze the halscrib post now
thelawnet says: Sorry I see I said 'games' when I meant 'deals'
Eolus619 says: All clear now ...and again ..taking time to explain in detail is very gracious of you ...
mrob2199
1407 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 3:52 AM
The 2257 covers the most hands pone could have that would put him out-we want the 5 in our hand because obviously a 5 is probably a card the pone is likely to keep if he needs a big hand-the 7 is useful if the pone has kept a double run of middle cards-the 22 is useful if we can grab a 15 on the first play with our 5 and pone makes it 25-just go through all the good hands a pone could hold and imagine how you would defend them with this particular holding
Eolus619 says: Hi Rob....found the Cribbage World archives and read your columns as you suggested...very informative ..thanks for the heads up
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:39 AM
Need four points total on counts, check. Eleven count then for defense, check . Play off here on lead. dec
Mark6
702 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 5:20 AM
Mark6
702 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 5:22 AM
X7-x-2-2 hopefully
JQT
4135 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 5:24 AM
Both Keep (2 2 5 7) and Keep (3 3 5 7) have a TCMA (Three-Card Magic Eleven), but only the former also has a FCSS (Four-Card Sweet Sixteen).

Therefore, I'll Keep (2 2 5 7) and aim for both a (15=2) as well as a (31=2) or even a (31=4).

The Magic Eleven may not be as significant today, because if Pone leads a Ten Card (or "X"), we are bound to take the (15=2) and not play the 7 Card. But still, this is a very good pegging hand.

Our chances of pegging out and winning are perhaps 30% to 40% but we may also win if Pone's First Hand Show comes up short.

Thus, I think we should win this game about 50% of the time, or perhaps even slightly better if we focus and peg wisely.
JQT says: I think it's important to retain the 5 Card today, since Pone shall be forced to retain his/her best hand, and Ten Cards (or "X") comprise 16 DIV 46 equals 0.348 or nearly 35% of the deck. And since good hands held by Pone shall therefore often contain either Ten Cards alongside a 5 Card(s) or all Ten Cards, we should not be surprised to see one as the Lead Card today. The best pegging hand for us as Dealer would probably be (A A 5 6) but (2 2 5 7) should also do nicely!
Eolus619 says: I appreciate the feedback about W and L..NOT criticizing ...but two VERY knowledgeable players say ......hands or games Left ..so I will think about this from both perspectives
Ras2829 says: hi JQT: Although I believe that pegging the four points as dealer is a bold goal an dshould be what is attempted, thinkit important for dealer to recognize that n/d scores 11 points once in each 3.5 chances. Dealer definitely has two hands to win - n/d has this one alone.
Eolus619 says: JQT...lawnet corrected ...changed games to hands ..so your answers are now both in sync
RubyTuesday
896 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 6:35 AM
2 + 2 + 7 = 11, plus I wanted to keep the 5 so that means I threw 3 3.
wasa
2990 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 6:50 AM
I am not good at end game cards. Kept one of each for their pegging potential.
wasa says: after reading the above comments, I now wish I kept 2-3-3-7 as I want an escape card so I'm not caught in a run
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Thursday 7:39 AM
I was going to keep one of each and hope for some pairs. Then I spotted the 227 magic eleven. Once focused on that I didn't see the 335 magic, and I never noticed the sweet sixteen.
Gougie00
5701 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 7:56 AM
One of the each as my friend Claude would say.
SallyAnn3
881 votes

Joined: March 2020

Thursday 10:31 AM
One of each for me...lead the 3, hoping they have faces. Gotta peg out somehow, so hope to be halway there.
Ras2829 says: Hi SallyAnn3: Agree that dealer goal should be to peg out. Dealer should alos remember that n/dmust score 11 points to win and chances of doing that are 1 in 3.5. N/d must win on this deal. Dealer has two shots at the win. Odds are heavily with dealer over this and the next deal.
SallyAnn3 says: duh...am dealer lol...so ignore my vote
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 11:27 AM
Am choosing off., off., and employing a bold pegging strategy. Think the 3-card 11 (2-2-7) and "sweet sixteen" offer me a good chance to gain those four pegs. JQT is corect though that peging four points for dealer is slighlty less than 50/50. With these cards the 4 pegs might be more asssured. Take the first two offered. Dealer should peg boldly and not allow n/d first count. If teh four pegs not gained by dealer, don't get overly nervous ans 11 points is a long stretch for the opponent any place on the board. The tey on the deck shouldcause a bit of a sigh of relief sicne dealer was hold 2-2-3-3 as a starter. That limits very significantly the potential score of n/d hand. My Cribbage Prof porgram shows the 3-3-5-7 to be the best hold in this position if choosing a bold pegging strategy. Don't know why that would be? Anxious to see what HalscribCLX has to offer this day.
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 2:42 PM
We need to peg out, I think. I'll try 2-2-3-7. At least it has a 3-card magic eleven and three low cards and a high card.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 2:47 PM
At 117*-110 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the Our Peg Out %s and Win %s are:

Defense_____Our Peg Out %_____Win %
3-3-5-7________48.0____________60.6
2-2-3-3________38.2____________54.1
2-2-5-7________61.3____________53.2
2-2-3-7________49.1____________51.4
2-3-3-7________43.5____________51.0
2-3-5-7________49.5____________48.5
2-3-3-5________51.1____________48.1
2-2-3-5________51.1____________47.8

2-2-5-7 has the best chance of pegging out and thrid best chance of winning so I'll select 3-3 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
thelawnet says: Don't understand these numbers a bit!
JQT says: Here is how I would explain it, using a sort-of retrograde analysis: While (2 2 5 7) has the third best percentage or 53.2% chance of winning IF WE DO NOT PEG OUT, there is FIRST the 61.3% chance that (2 2 5 7) will indeed allow us to peg out FIRST, and thus render Pone's First Hand Show as academic and thus immaterial. The win figures therefore are less important, since it is optimal to at least attempt our best to WIN here by pegging out, but those win percentages do involve the DEFENSIVE nature of the pegging, since some hands besides (2 2 5 7) are probably better at DEFENSIVE pegging. But ultimately, our chance of winning (being a composite of these two factors) is best if we try to peg out FIRST, and the offensive pegging of (2 2 5 7) is best at this, after which even if we fail, we shall then STILL WIN a good portion of the time when Pone comes up short.
thelawnet says: That seems about right in that 2233 shows as least likely to peg out, which seems right, but 3357 pegs more and is even more defensive (higher win %, which is really pone losing ) So 3357 concedes fewest, while 2257 pegs most, so the win chance is then (1-.613)*.532+.613 Vs (1-.48)*.606 +.48. Presumably if we re-ran the numbers at 115*-110 it would favour 3357
Ras2829 says: Let me put this in my simple way of thinking. RAS has a 61.3% chance to peg out if holidng 2-2-5-7. If I peg out, have I won? How can the win percentage be less by a wide margin than the peg-out %?
JQT says: This would be my guess: Us humans of course consider pegging out to be a subset of "winning" ... but I think the second column of Win Percentage as displayed by the program means to win if we do NOT first peg out. In essence, it could mean "chances of winning after we FIRST fail to peg out, considering the fact that Pone counts his/her hand FIRST" Thus, the term "win" as shown by the program is not a superset of all cases in which we might win, but only a subset of cases in which we might STILL win after the pegging. Anyway, that's how I interpret the two columns of numbers, and it seems to make sense this way.