Tuesday 3:15 AM

Six points is plenty.
Very little synergy between the Q and 8, although they are the same suit.

   

Tuesday 3:25 AM

Little too much risk in keeping the Q for the extra 2 points-keep the 6 points with the open ended double run possibilities and the safe Q-8 discard

   

Tuesday 3:36 AM

Wrong person dealing!!! No 5/Q nor 7/8. Too dangerous even this early.

   

Tuesday 3:41 AM

today we have a choice of:

89 (5TTQ)
16 with a cut of a J or 5 (7)
14 with a cut of a T (2)
12 with a cut of a Q (3)
10 with a cut of a K (4)
otherwise 8 (30)
= 9.91
It incurs ~5.5 points, and could go up to 24.

8Q (59TT) - which scores
14 with cut of J (4)
12 with cut of 5, 8, 10 (8)
8 with cut of A, 6, 9, Q, K (18)
otherwise 6 (16)
8.52
It incurs ~4.2 points, and could go up to 14.

9Q (58TT) - which scores
12 with 5, 9, T (8)
8 with 2, 7, 8, J, Q, K (22)
otherwise 6 (16)
= 8 exactly
It incurs ~3.9 points, and could go up to 14.

We can see that 59TT is a decent bit stronger than 58TT, but the 9Q toss is more likely to blank pone. Blanking is not a major goal here, we are far from home, and our first priority is scoring more points than pone. There isn't too much to choose between these two hands for pegging. We really can disregard the 9Q toss.

So we have a choice between 5TTQ with the 89 toss, and 59TT with the 8Q toss. Both appear to have a similar hand - crib value. I think that 5TTQ will be the cheapest pegging hand for us (as non-dealer we should count on LOSING the pegging). It's my assessment therefore that 5TTQ comes out a bit ahead of 59QQ. However this is likely to be by 0.1 or 0.2 points.

On the other hand, 89 can incur 24 points, which probably won't happen, but it seems to me that even though 5TTQ has the highest expected value by maybe 0.1 or 0.2 points, we cannot win a game of cribbage by 0.2 points, but we can certainly lose one by 20!

So I will hold 59TT, and expect to end this deal on around 24*-25, and therefore a >50% chance of winning.

Will lead the T, and the cut of 7 doesn't change that. Will pair a 5 reply.

   

Tuesday 4:15 AM

Taking a chance with eight cuts to get sixteen points would not be a good decision on my part to give them Q-5. Good with a wide discard for opportunities of twelve to fourteen points. Tens the lead , a nine lead might lead to many pegging opportunities for opponent with the seven other cards involved. dec

   

Tuesday 5:28 AM

It's Toss (8 9) and 'Turtles All The Way Down' ... at least until approaching Fourth Street.

Interesting if Toss (5 Q) would be chosen if the score were say (109-106*)?

   

Tuesday 5:37 AM

That's what I get for being clever. I tried to sneak the 89 into crib and if I am lucky it will have only 5. Might be 12 or more. Yuck. Lead the 10 and try to peg a little. Relatively good position now but I'd like to be at hole 25.

   

Tuesday 6:18 AM

Playing it safe to hold 6 vs 8.

   

Tuesday 6:23 AM

Will give up 2 points in this position to not throw 89 or 5Q.

   

Tuesday 7:13 AM

Like the 8-Q defensive toss and the touching 9-10-10. I think it’s worth giving up 2 points to avoid a block buster crib.

   

Tuesday 7:27 AM

I know the math will say I'm wrong, but my choice today reflects my own personal battle scars. After that cut, I don't think my choice will score much worse than anyone else's.

   

Tuesday 11:57 AM

Happy to take a chance for a double run with so much game to go. Our opponent has a nine point deficit so I'm okay with risking 5-Q. Even if it blows up it won't likely put him back in the game.

   

Tuesday 12:30 PM

Q-5 scary throw. 8-9 almost as scary. 6 point hand to go with our 13 and next deal is good enough. Q-8 throw far less scary at this point in the game.

   

Tuesday 3:31 PM

Throwing 89 will be fine as long as a 7 isn’t cut.

   

Tuesday 4:00 PM

I think it's between 5-10-10-Q (8-9) and 5-9-10-10 (8-Q). I don't think 8-9-10-10 (5-Q) will compete but I'll examine it:

5-10-10-Q: 8pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = +2¼pts

5-9-10-10: 6pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = +1¾pts

8-9-10-10: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.34) = +½pt

Potential:

5-10-10-Q: Improves with 555 + 13xXs = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 12/14/16pts with 555, 1010, JJJJ, QQQ = 12 cuts.

5-9-10-10: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 888, 999 + 13xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 12pts with 555, 888, 1010, JJJJ = 12 cuts.

8-9-10-10: Improves with 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 1010, JJJJ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12/15/16pts with 555, 7777, 888, 999, 1010 = 15 cuts.

Position:

It looks like it's second deal and we were first Dealer. We've scored below average by 3pts but I'll carry on playing Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 5-9-10-10 and 5-10-10-Q will peg better.

Summary:

5-10-10-Q has a starting value ½pt better than 5-9-10-10 and has a better maximum of 16pts. 5-9-10-10 has more cuts for improvement and still 12 cuts for a dozen. However I think I'll risk the 8-9 and keep 8pts.

   

Tuesday 4:16 PM

At 13-9* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

__________________Pone's
Defense____Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total____W8 %____W9 %
5-10-10-Q__9.91+(-2.70)+(-5.22)=1.99____38.2____54.7
5-9-10-10__8.52+(-2.61)+(-4.16)=1.75____34.6____53.2
5-8-10-10__8.00+(-2.67)+(-3.89)=1.44____32.7____51.9
5-8-9-10___7.57+(-3.09)+(-4.41)=0.07____32.1____50.3
8-9-10-10_10.30+(-2.98)+(-7.36)=(-0.04)_38.1____51.6

Defense_______L8 %____L9 %
5-10-10-Q______22.1____20.0
5-9-10-10______19.6____20.6
5-8-10-10______19.0____21.3
5-8-9-10_______20.9____23.0
8-9-10-10______27.0____24.2

5-10-10-Q is best for expected averages by 0.24pt and significantly best for Win %s. 5-9-10-10 is lowest for Loss %s with 5-8-10-10 very close behind. But 5-10-10-Q is not too much higher. So I'll select 8-9 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 10 and play Defense:

Lead_________Pone's Pegging Pts.
10__________________(-2.41)
Q___________________(-2.57)
5___________________(-3.24)

   

Tuesday 8:47 PM

There are 12 cards that will give me 12-16 points. That's worth playing for as would give me the deck in very good position. So am thinking def., def., and after seeing the starter card of no help to me and great help to the 8-9 discard, will lead a 10S, although probably won't fake the flush as will not pair a five if dealer scores 15-2 on my lead. If dealer puts a five on my ten opener, would drop the 9 to make the count 24. It seems that his hold would have the greater combined value regardless of choice of strategy.