Wednesday 3:11 AM

A 4 to my crib, I have to admit that I was hoping fir a more useful turn up.

   

Wednesday 3:11 AM

   

Wednesday 3:29 AM

We have 4 points either way we keep this hand-2 in the hand and 2 in the crib-decided to keep the 889 together in case we received a great cut

   

Wednesday 3:33 AM

Ten or a seven awaiting. Did not happen so hope to trap some pegs. dec

   

Wednesday 4:00 AM

I think this will peg better against a broader array of hands and per Liam it turns out to have the same average for pure hand+crib.

My choice is also definitely influenced by an unscientific bias against a-4 which seems to always give me 2-4 point cribs...

   

Wednesday 4:08 AM

Prefer A4 over a pair of 8s when we can hold a possible double run. Hopefully the fortune of the game changes soon.

   

Wednesday 4:33 AM

The 7 Card or T Card Cut still helps us, and meanwhile we may peg without getting all jammed up and maybe more than once.

   

Wednesday 4:45 AM

I'll discard the hearts.
Only the cut of a non-spade 9 won't immediately improve the value of my hand. It would create a pair in the crib though.
Hand features an X-A eleven for pegging.

   

Wednesday 5:31 AM

I kept the 889 together just incase a 7 was cut. My magic wand wasnt working, and a 3 appeared.

Next time will be the 4456 hand.

Day 18 of isolation.

   

Wednesday 5:35 AM

A4 and 88 are close but I prefer to keep the A4 for pegging

   

Wednesday 5:52 AM

Like the touching cards in hand for shot at 12 or 10/11 with a favorable cut. Suited A-4 is in the same ball park as 8-8 to our own crib. Ras’s rankings has them pretty close. I think pone is more likely to toss faces vs. middle cards so the “5” in my crib my hit something.

   

Wednesday 6:23 AM

Prefer A-4 rather than 8-8 in our crib. Close in value. Wanted to keep 8-8-9 together, too.

   

Wednesday 11:21 AM

I considered the pegging advantages of the lower cards, but just decided to hope for the double run and hope pone puts something in that works with A,4 instead of 8,8. This could go either way based on the cut and pone's discard.

   

Wednesday 1:43 PM

I think it's between A-4-9-J (8-8) and 8-8-9-J (A-4):

A-4-9-J: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.45) = 7¾pts

8-8-9-J: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 7¼pts

Potential:

A-4-9-J: Improves with AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 6/7pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 10101010, JJJ = 17 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

8-8-9-J: Improves with 5555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999, 10101010, JJJ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/10/12pts with 7777, 88, 10101010 = 10 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

It looks like it's 2nd deal and as we were First Pone and scored the average I'll continue to play Offense.

Pegging:

I think A-4-9-J will peg slightly better.

Summary:

A-4-9-J has a starting value ½pt more than 8-8-9-J and has more cuts for improvement and 17 cuts for 6/7pts. 8-8-9-J has a higher maximum at 12pts but even so I'll select 8-8 as it pegs better and has more potential.

   

Wednesday 1:45 PM

At 10*-14 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

______________Our
Offense__Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
A-4-9-J___4.76+2.85+5.34=12.95____17.6____19.1
8-8-9-J___4.59+2.80+5.44=12.83____17.3____19.2

Offense______L8 %____L9 %
A-4-9-J_______34.6____53.9
8-8-9-J_______35.0____54.3

A-4-9-J is better for expected averages by 0.12pt and is about equal for Win %s and very slightly lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-8 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

   

Wednesday 2:03 PM

Based on my scant empirical evidence, hand size is almost identical. Slight edge in pegs and crib score that give the A-4-9-J the upper hand this day. At hole 10, it's off., off., off and play on the lead. Would pair a 9-J or 4 lead. In the former two cases, if opponent tripled, RAS would score 4 pegs (pair + 31-2). On any other X-point lead would place the Ace. On a 5-7-8 lead would play the Jack. On a trey lead would play the Ace and if deuce led would play the four spot.