March 31, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
46%
36%
5%
5%
4%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 215
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:18 AM
Before I started using this site I would've chosen A-J for a five point hand, and left the crib to fend for itself. I've since learned to choose 2-3 for a minimum of 4+2=6 points. The latest advice though, (I seem to think anyway), is that if one/both of the X cards is a Jack, to keep the A-2-3-4 run.

A-4 was never in my thinking.
mrob2199
1407 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:27 AM
Nice puzzle today Ras-I said a couple days ago I don’t love keeping the A234 together-but in today’s puzzle it’s the best keep IMO-the 10-j is a decent discard to our own crib-if the 10-j were 10-q,10-k,j-k or q-k I would keep the pictures with the Ace-4 and discard 2-3-the open ended aspect of the 10-j provides extra value
james500 says: Hi Rob, I hope all's well. It seems my belief in a "discard J-X", guideline is incorrect as you rule out J-K in your post. If we pretend that the two X cards were J-J or J-Q, would you advise the discard of X-X or 2-3 in those cases? Thanks in advance.
mrob2199 says: James,I would hold the pair of jacks or JQ as my discard-the pair or open ended discard has more value in our crib than a 10-q or j-k or q-k
Jazzselke says: How about A234910?
mrob2199 says: Definitely A234 with the 9-10 discard there
mfetchCT425 says: Hi Rob, if you had A-2-3-4-J-J, wouldn’t you toss 2-3 from this hand vs. J-J? I think 2-3 is way more powerful than J-J to our crib.
cribbagepogo says: Max of 10. To each his own.
mrob2199 says: Mike it’s basically a toss up in my opinion-while the A234 can be dangerous in pegging vulnerability,it also pegs much better than the A4jj-the 23 discard looks great here when you cut an ace or 4,but the average hand is probably very similar-but it’s a very close call-condolences for your mom-sending prayers your way buddy
mfetchCT425 says: Thanks so much Rob for the kind words. My mom was struggling with Alzheimer’s for close to 10 years so she’s in a better place now. Thanks for your thoughts on this crib hand. Always value your insight so very highly. It seems whenever I toss a pair jacks to my crib I end up with 2 (or 3 if one is the right one). I’m assuming that’s b/c opponent will rarely toss us a 5 or J and will try to avoid touching faces. I just love starting with a known 8 points in hand + crib before the cut, and having that powerful 2-3 in the crib which so often gleans a big crib. Miss our 3-man team action. Stay well and safe.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:52 AM
Difference of start of game and being in positions later of being more desperate. Pegging could be offensive or very defensive depending on lead. dec
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:05 AM
I wanted the touchies in the crib but Liam says I'm definitely wrong and by such a margin that the pegging won't make up the difference (toss 2-3 is 13.3, t-j is 12.6).

When oh when will I learn how to dance around these configurations?
mrob2199 says: Horus you cannot always judge your discard by those numbers-I would venture to say that on the average,the 10-j discard with the A234 hold will score more points-however if you discard the 2-3 and hold the A-4-10-j and get the bingo cut of an ace or 4,those high scoring hands skewer the average
Rosemarie44 says: At this position pone will be on all out offense. Wouldn't A-4-T-J be a better defensive hand to hold? Is this thinking reasonable at this position?
mrob2199 says: Rosemarie that is reasonable-I’m not a player who plays strict position from the first hand of the game tho so I’m a little more flexible on offensive or defensive holds
Rosemarie44 says: Thank you for your input.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:00 AM
2-3? Surprised the experts didnt toss 2-3 to their own crib without a flush to consider.
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:35 AM
I like 2-3 to crib with hand starting at 4 and has a maximum of 11 points. Great starter card
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:44 AM
Whenever I can toss myself 5-5 or 2-3 into my crib I smile. To me, didn't think hard about 2-3 to my crib here.
RubyTuesday
896 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:23 AM
I wanted to toss 2 3 into my crib but decided to throw 10 J instead.
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:26 AM
I toss 2-3 to my crib from this hand every time I see it.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:09 AM
Good arguments both ways. I like the run in my hand with the touchies in the crib.
joekayak says: Interested to see the math from HalsCrib and how close it is between the 2-3 or J-10 to own crib.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 10:03 AM
If the two faces were split (10-Q, J-K, 10-K) or were on the end (Q-K) or were a pair (10-10, J-J, etc), I would toss 2-3. The 5 cut isn’t great for the hand but we may have a nice crib waiting for us.
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 12:12 PM
I also used to *always* Toss (2 3) from such hands, but we must beware of terms like *always* and *never* in Cribbage and in Life!

Because I also always never used to wear a mask while taking out my trash . . .
JQT says: See 'New Rule' under HalscribCLX Post (below).
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:23 PM
Would throw 2-3. Better yield of points. Surprised the field is against that. Ras?
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Tuesday 2:39 PM
Tossing 2,3 has more points out of the gate. Unless there is some other hidden knowledge here? Didn't feel like hoping for a double run this time.
dgergens says: I think someone did say something in the last week that a A,2,3,4 hand is very powerful. So is this a case of just do it, or does the discard play into the decisions as James suggests?
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:04 PM
Mick Michaelis' hand where he demonstrated that from A-2-3-4-X-X (2-3) can be the best throw. However Ras has shown that taking account of the pegging and close cards to the box A-2-3-4 can be the better keep:

A-4-10-J: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

A-2-3-4: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.61) = 8¾pts

Potential:

A-4-10-J: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 9999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 7//8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 24 cuts. Plus 10 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer I'll play Defense. Positional hole is 8pts but I'll try to score the average of 16pts for pegging, hand and crib.

Pegging:

A-2-3-4 will peg better than A-4-10-J. Although playing Defense I think A-4-10-J will be OK too.

Summary:

A-4-10-J is 2pts better for starting value and also has the benefit of the nob potential. However A-2-3-4 has guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 7-10pts. So I think A-2-3-4 will catch up the 2¼pts therefore I'll throw the touching 10-J.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:07 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense__Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-4-10-J__6.74+(-2.00)+6.44=11.18____38.9____52.2
A-2-3-4___8.09+(-2.20)+4.43=10.32____38.7____50.4
2-3-10-J__7.13+(-2.15)+5.25=10.23____36.1____49.8

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-4-10-J______25.3____22.4
A-2-3-4_______27.9____24.6
2-3-10-J______25.6____24.4

A-4-10-J is best for expected averages by 0.86pt and is slightly best for Win %s and slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
JQT says: The infamous Toss (2 3) still seems to be favored if we are the First Dealer of a game: for it is when we are Pone where the pegging of (A 2 3 4) really shines. If we are in an Offensive Position however, Toss (T J) or Toss (J Q) can still make some sense from this hand construct even if we are the Dealer; but at the beginning of a game, it appears that our desire for a *defensive* posture still finds Toss (2 3) is to be preferred. I think we can maybe thus codify such information and turn this knowledge into a rule, what do you think, RAS? And how are you doing under Lock Down?!
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:24 PM
Actually I had inside knowledge pertinent to this hand as dealer of opening hand. The puzzle is from a game with Cribbage Prof although had noticed the same pattern with Halscrib and REX, all programs developed by Hal Mueller. If playing a defense pegging strategy, discarding the 2-3 is correct as A-4-10-J gives up fewer pegs and scores a much larger crib. Now if the choice is offense as dealer as it might be in other positions on the board, mrob2199 outlines it very well. If the ten-pointers are 10-J or J-Q, hold A-2-3-4. If the J-K is present, it's a push as to whether to discard 2-3 or the J-K. If the low-scoring 10-K 2.836, 10-Q 3.166, or Q-K 3.483 are present, then 2-3 would give the better combined average. Those weak X-point combinations to own crib score 0-2 a very high percentage of the time. For example 10-K does so at a 50.043%; Q-K is at 46.674%; and 10-Q scores 0-2 45.069%. So if you were looking at a fairly simple rule to apply, here goes. If the X-point combination does not include a Jack, discard the 2-3 when playing an offense pegging strategy. If the J-K were the choice, it's a push (choose either.) My choice with the J-K present would be to play A-2-3-4. If the two X-pointers are 10-J or J-Q, clearly choose the X-pointers as your discard. Yes, its. def., def., def., and play off the lead. That means to play the Ace on X-point leads and the four on most other leads. If a trey were led, would respond with the 10 spot. If a deuce lead, would respond with the four spot. On most mid-card leads would play the Jack. Appreciate all the fine wisdom shared this day. Don't like sacrificing the national economy in response to this virus. Some precautions make sense (distancing and eliminating large groups). So many make it sound as though the death rate would be zero without this pandemic. Cars kill 50,000 annually, drug overdoses exceed 100,000 per year, self inflicted gun shot wounds claim more than 45,000 annually, regular winter time visitors (flu strains, pneumonia, etc.) claim an average of more than 50,000 annually. Deaths from murder are nearly 20,000 annually. Lewis county Washington as of yesterday had 7 tested positive (all beyond age 50), none are hospitalized and no deaths here. We have two counties with 85% of the cases. So would favor more local control. Here social distancing and no groups of more than 10 would be all that is necessary. Re=open restaurants and seat with some spacing. If the lock-down continues into June as some are suggesting, it will take years to recover. Our economy will still be in the tank when the next pandemic arrives on our shores. JQT, that's my take on it.