Monday 3:10 AM

I count more cuts for 7+ with this hand, than with 8,9,T,J.

A,2,3,4,5,9 or X (35) Vs 5,7,8,9,T,J (20).

The cut of a Jack gives me all eight of the points I needed so the lead is moot.

   

Monday 3:24 AM

I threw 9 8, so far we’re all in agreement.

   

Monday 3:31 AM

And you still might win or get close enough with a non cut. Looks like an easy 99 percenter here. dec

   

Monday 3:45 AM

If we cannot optimize a specific hand to gain a total of Eight Points as Pone, then we want to get as close as possible while also defending.

Two approaches may get us close: Toss (8 9) or Toss (2 3). The former defends a lot better than the latter, so our task is really to determine if our Hand after Toss (2 3) is really any better at winning during This Deal.

After Toss (8 9), we are helped by about 32 Cuts (AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, TTT, JJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), although only about two-thirds of those are certain to deliver us home.

After Toss (2 3), we are helped by about 24 Cuts (5555, 7777, 888, 999, TTT, JJJ, QQQQ), and while *most* of these will deliver us victory, it is still only about this same number of true helpers as we have for the previous choice, or around Twenty Cuts of certainty.

Given that this appears to be very close, it would definitely therefore be best if we opted for Toss (8 9) and a little 'sprinkle' of *defense* with our choice today. After the Cut, lead the Trey.

   

Monday 4:35 AM

More cuts that get us close to home or out with this hold. When the finish line is in sight, like to be aggressive. This hold should be a better defensive pegging hand too then any other viable choice. With the favorable cut will play off and look to rid myself of the two low cards early. Will lead the 2.

   

Monday 4:40 AM

At 8 points out, do we try to get home by tossing 23 or 89 to pone's crib? Or do we go conservative?

With
23TJ:

678sdc for 4 (8 cuts)
678h for 5 (3 cuts)
Kdsc for 6 (3 cuts)
Kh A49sdc for 7 (9 cuts)
A49h 235TJQ for win (23 cuts)

With 89TJ

A234Ksdc for 4 (14 cuts)
A24Kh Qsdc for 5 (7 cuts)
6sdc Qh for 6 (4 cuts)
6h 7sdc for 7 (4 cuts)
589TJ 7h for win (17 cuts)

We can easily see that not only is 23 a bad toss to pone's crib anyway, it's also bad for our hand.

So 23 is the wrong toss, and 89 much better, not least because we'd rather be holding 23 than 89 if we cut a K or A49 offsuit and need those 1/2 points.

With 23JT and 89 in pone's crib we have 50% chance of winning instantly, then say:

3/4 chance to peg 1+ point
1/2 chance to peg 2+ points
1/3 chance to peg 3+ points
1/10 chance to peg 4+ points

Which gives us a 72% chance to win before pone shows, i.e. 28% of the time pone shows. With 89 in his crib and noting 7 is bad for us and good for pone, then say 50% of the time pone fails to reach 16 points, and we make it to next round where we can peg out for sure if we need only 1 point.

72% says to me 'toss pone the 89', rather than 'let's try and poison pone's crib'.

For the defensive options, e.g., 38, then only 9TJ 5h win (10 cuts), with 35sdc (6 cuts) needing us to peg 1 point. This is half us many 'we win, or likely peg out' cuts as 23TJ, and while cuts of 246h put us two points away, this hand is so much worse it's not funny.

So 23TJ it is, since with pone needing a full 16 points, even a cut of 7 is not fatal to us, because his hand could be trash even if he gets a nice crib.

As it turns out we cut the J, and win.

   

Monday 5:10 AM

Needing 8 points toss 8-9 to opponent. Best hold. Get as close as possible if not able to peg out this deal. Great cut.

   

Monday 5:12 AM

Holding the 2&3 is tempting but the possibility of a double run of four is too much to give up.

   

Monday 6:19 AM

I debated whether to toss 23 or 89. Turns out that it didnt matter. I figured if I didnt get the cut I was dead either way.

Day 16 of isolation and president wants 30 more. Ugh. Are the rest of you starting to look like feral tomcats too?

   

Monday 6:23 AM

The dealer is in a great position to win on this deal. We have to keep the hand that gives us the most points. With 12 more X Cards available for the starter card, this is the only way to go.

The Jack of diamonds makes it easier to avoid runs since we already have the necessary points.

The jack also bales out those bloggers who chose the 4 card run. Tossing the 2-3 could have come back to haunt you if you did not catch the cut. Never make the presumption that you will get the cut you want.

   

Monday 7:05 AM

This hold allows low cards and a 5 to help in addition to the high cards; 8910J only helped by high cards and a 5.

   

Monday 8:18 AM

Initially it's off., off. once seeing the starter card, knowing that n/d has 8 points, downshift sharply to a defense pegging strategy,lead the trey, and avoid pegs. Of course, safely pair a 10/J if dealer responds with same to our opening offering. Otherwise play off.

   

Monday 9:30 AM

This is not a case of double run googles. If I had a dime for every time I've been burned by throwing 7's or 8's to the dealer, I'd be retired. Very recently Ras was kind enough to explain why a 2,3 is so dangerous (maybe it was 3,3), but same concern. I've had way less issues with 2's & 3's, so that's what got tossed.

   

Monday 12:29 PM

In this position I think it's all about winning cuts for 8pts and close cuts for 7pts:

8-9-10-J has 5555, 7H, 888, 999, 101010, JJJ = 17 cuts for 8pts or more and four for 7pts 6H, 777.

2-3-10-J has AH, 222, 333, 4H, 5555, 9H, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 23 cuts for 8pts or more and AAA, 444, 999, KH = 10 cuts for 7pts.

So 2-3-10-J is better for both scores and the 8-9 throw is somewhat safer than 2-3 making it slightly more likely to go to next deal if necessary.

   

Monday 12:31 PM

At 113-105* playing a Bold strategy the Win %s are the main factor:

Offense_________Win %______Loss %
2-3-10-J________74.6_______25.4
8-9-10-J________58.8_______41.2

After the J cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead___________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3____________________(-2.93)
2____________________(-3.05)
10___________________(-3.40)
J____________________(-3.41)