Tuesday 3:32 AM

not great cards so let's keep the a-4 for 5 and two ten cards with it.

lead the 4, our ace is waiting if it's 14

could also go for 942a which has I think better pegging prospects

   

Tuesday 4:11 AM

Not the cut I wanted to see.
4 lead from the 4-A combo.

   

Tuesday 4:14 AM

I’ve thrown 2 9 to keep 4 points in hand. I thought about throwing 2 K but couldn’t see that it was worth losing 2 points to keep 9 and 10 together.

   

Tuesday 5:40 AM

I wasnt expecting a 5 cut. I tossed the defensive K9 and kept the 2 for pegging. Outsmarted myself? Lead the 4.

   

Tuesday 6:44 AM

We need points already.

   

Tuesday 6:49 AM

Very straightforward to me, until I note that this is a RAS puzzle, so I pondered tossing T-K instead of the 2-9. I don't think the lower expected crib and maybe better pegging potential outweighs the loss of 2 points so keep the sure 4 points.

   

Tuesday 7:31 AM

K-9 is a good balker but 9-2 isnt to shabby either. Playing mostly for the ten points possible. dec

   

Tuesday 8:03 AM

Always looking for a catch in a ras puzzle but I don't see one today. Looking at the optimal discard with a typical hand at -8/+8. The cut is likely to help us both, I'd shoot for optimal pegging and lead the orthodox 4.

   

Tuesday 8:11 AM

Tossing 2-9 to opponent. This hand has 24 cuts that increase the value from 4 points to 6, 8, or 10 points. Not sur of Ras's reasoning for this submission but we will find out later.

   

Tuesday 8:19 AM

While (A 2 4 9) will surely peg better, it won't necessarily peg Two Points Better.

And Toss (2 9) gets us 'out the gate' as Pone with a bit more force.

After seeing that 5 Card Cut, I might just lead the Ten Card "T" today. This leaves us with the most variety going forward, and also rids ourselves of the card which is most likely to be 'trapped' into a later RUN.

If a 4 Card Lead were to get PAIRED here, we have no way to parry; but after the Ten Card Lead gets PAIRED, we might parry with our King and a "go" and then Mr. Ace.

And so once again, a Discarding Dilemma has possibly transmorphed into a Pegging Puzzle!

Tuesday 10:56 AM

this one was a no-brainer for me......the 92 toss was the best and the most points in the hand.....another thought was KA and keep 94210, as you can see from cut, 8 pts vice 4, and yes, a scary cut for the pone side......

   

Tuesday 2:54 PM

A-2-4-9 (10-K) or A-4-10-K (2-9)?:

A-2-4-9: 2pts - 3pts (Schell: 2.84) = -1pt

A-4-10-K: 4pts - 3¾pts (Schell: 3.71) = +¼pt

Potential:

A-2-4-9: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 444, 999 = 16 cuts.

A-4-10-K: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 101010, KKK = 16 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone I'll play Offense. Positional hole is 18pts I'll try to get as close as possible.

Pegging:

I think A-2-4-9 will peg better.

Summary:

A-4-10-K has a starting value +1¼pts more than A-2-4-9 but A-2-4-9 has more cuts for improvement and should peg much better. So I'll select 10-K to discard.

   

Tuesday 3:04 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-4-10-K__6.00+1.33+(-4.59)=2.74____20.5____20.9
A-2-4-9___4.70+1.93+(-4.00)=2.63____20.6____21.0

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
A-4-10-K_____36.4____52.3
A-2-4-9______36.5____52.2

A-4-10-k is better for expected averages by 0.11pt and although A-2-4-9 is very slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s I'll decide on the expected averages and select 2-9 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 10 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
10__________________1.39
K___________________1.28
4___________________1.21
A___________________1.05

   

Tuesday 3:13 PM

The only reason to hold A-4-10-K here is that we have opening deal and playing off., off., and leading the 10 spot. Why the 10 rather than the King? Note there is about .1 of a point difference in combined values even though in this case n/d starts with 4 points rather than 2 points if holding A-2-4-9. Holding this hand should not be an automatic discard choice. If playing defense, the A-2-4-9 is preferable and has the greater combined value. Note the A-2-4-9 is a slightly better choice if considering win/loss %.