Monday 3:09 AM

we only need to stop the dealer pegging 2.

if we lead a ten card then a 5 reply wins for us if keep the 5.

if it comes back with 20 for two, which surely the dealer must if he has a pair then we will play our other ten card for thirty, and then we can win with the ace if the dealer lacks his own.

   

Monday 3:38 AM

Best guess will be the one that wins!! Kept high cards on basis I will get one for my last somewhere. Would lead K expecting he would not dare play a five.

   

Monday 3:58 AM

Lead the 5. 75% chance of 25/2. If not, I *should* get a go at some stage, since I'm left holding only large cards.

   

Monday 4:04 AM

Ace leads makes for a fifteen response on a six, seven, nine or more unlikely four. Second possibility they use their counts to get 30-31 and they get last card on their four plays that works two. dec

   

Monday 5:08 AM

I don’t really know what I’m doing here, have kept one card of each value to try and get that needed pegging point.

   

Monday 5:09 AM

It was either the ten or the king, I am not completely sure. Here it is for today's hand.

   

Monday 5:36 AM

One of the each. Lead the "One"

   

Monday 5:54 AM

I envision that the dealer will keep some type of four card spread similar to ours in order to counter any card we lead, if it is at all possible. The dealer will probably play defensive on his first play trying to avoid some type of trap. I'll lead the Ace hoping that the dealer will play into me.

   

Monday 6:32 AM

I wanted the spread. I wonder why nobody picked a-5-7-q? Sexism.

   

Monday 6:52 AM

In situations like this(you need 1 or 2 pegs before the dealer gets 3 or 4) you want to lead a card where if dealer pegs 2 on it,you will respond with 2 to go out-in this particular hand we do not have that clear option-the closest approximation is to keep A-5-7-K and lead the King-the king is the least probable picture card hold since dealer will have the lowest odds in trapping one of our pictures for a potential game winning run-we win the game on our 2nd play if dealer responds with an ace,4,5 or 7-and we have enough of a disparity in the spread of our cards to get boxed in on our second play if we don’t win on our lead

   

Monday 7:41 AM

While I think that (5 T Q K) might be the best hand IF we needed TWO Points, the fact that we only need ONE Point really does change the terrain a bit. But "I Have a Dream" - Let's HOPE we do not Cut a Jack!

From Hole 120, needing just One Point in order to WIN, I think after (A 5 T K), our Ace maybe becomes the ultimate weapon. And alongside a few Ten Cards, we can drive the Count up very quickly. Also, the 'spread' between the Ten Card and the King means we can lead the former and then a King Reply becomes a high-probability play for the Dealer!

After leading the Ten Card, we can win immediately 12 DIV 45 equals 0.266 or about 27% of the time after 12 replies (AA, 4444, 555, KKK), and as the Count approaches Thirty-One, we have a very good chance of either securing a "go" or even (31-2). All of this is based upon the fact that the Dealer sits at Hole 117; and so unless a Jack were Cut, we can allow any PAIR, or (15=2), or even a RUN, and still maintain a chance of winning.

It might seem that after leading a 5 Card from (5 T Q K) that we have a good chance of 'parrying' the Dealer and winning, but I believe we have this better idea today of (A 5 T K). In fact, I think my next choice would probably be (A 5 7 K), with its wide assortment, and from which I would probably lead the King. Actually, if we didn't enjoy having First Hand Show and absolutely had to peg out in order to WIN, I kind of like (A T Q K)! But what if we pegged nothing?!

Needing just One Point is a VERY SPECIAL CASE in Cribbage, and since the Dealer needs Four Points, we also have some much-added flexibility in how we may handle this endgame. If the Dealer were closer, I'd prefer to be holding more "Small" cards here, and more 'touching' or 'gapped' cards, so I am actually not too fond of the arrangement that we were dealt as offering us purely a Pegging Solution.

But it is the POSITION and our SCORE that should 'clinch' this game in our favor, especially since we did not Cut that Dreaded Devil of a Knave! A Jack Cut would have surely 'turned the tables' on us today; but after the Ace Cut, we are very likely to WIN.

And that's because we have so many ways of winning: Pegging a Single Point may seem the most likely route here, but with the Dealer needing to peg Four Holes, we might very well also prevail simply by 'almost accidentally' pegging defensively today!

   

Monday 9:10 AM

Agree with JQT, the dealer needing 4 points offers us some latitude and forgiveness if we chose wrong.

   

Monday 10:02 AM

Predictive Prowess in Cribbage

A wonderful exercise for all Cribbage Players is to develop our Predictive Prowess: we should learn to examine both LIKELY CARDS and HIGH-BIAS PLAYS of our opponents.

One of the basic or minimal tasks that all players should do is ALWAYS remember what was discarded. But that's just where we get started. One other very good exercise to work on is to attempt, after the pegging has concluded, to not only remember what YOU tossed into the Crib, but to try to guess the ENTIRE CONTENTS of the Crib! When I do this against "casual" players and get it either correct or very close, they are usually flabbergasted, not just that I can remember what I tossed (because a casual player won't even do this!), but to somehow guess what THEY discarded seems like I had to have been somehow looking in a mirror or something!

But given the original SCORE, and the Cut, and what was played and when, you should be able to come very close much of the time. It actually becomes a viable concept the more you practice it, and while this doesn't particularly apply to today's puzzle (final Deals are actually not always as worthy to try to guess the discards, although they are well worth studying!).

The other more relevant aspect to today's puzzle is to examine the BIAS for your opponent to both retain and play certain cards. Today's puzzle is a splendid example. As a Dealer, what would you LIKE TO BE HOLDING at (117*-120)? And then, what is a Dealer likely to play ... and where and when and how ... and WHY? I might like to hold something such as (A A 2 ?) today as the Dealer, even (and maybe especially) before seeing the Ace Cut.

After an Ace Cut, if Pone leads and Ace, notice how we just jinxed away Two Points? And in fact, even if the Dealer holds just a single Ace Card, if Pone leads an Ace after we Cut an Ace, it begs to be PAIRED due to the combination of factors here: Dealer NEEDS FOUR POINTS, and Pone just gave the Dealer a lower-odds opportunity to get half way home! At many other scores and relative positions, an Ace Lead is a very good, defensive lead, but in this particular endgame battle, I believe that the Dealer has an extremely HIGH BIAS to "jump on it" and PAIR it!

A wise Dealer here will also be looking to "corner" Pone at a Count of Twenty-Two or greater, and then either get a "go" and either self-PAIR, or score a RUN, by either using Pone's last card played or not. Thus, Pone really needs to be "insulated" from getting 'jammed up' at a Count of between Twenty-Two and Twenty-Eight or Twenty-Nine. And that's because this is the particular place in the Count where the Dealer is most likely to out-peg Pone with a Four-to-Zero margin.

Remembering what you have discarded is a basic, necessary, but easy-to-develop skill. Guessing those other two cards in any Crib after all the pegging has concluded is a bit more difficult, but it is moderately "do-able" to at least get VERY CLOSE, and more importantly, it's a very worthwhile endeavor to develop such a skill. But most complex is to attempt to understand the COMPOSITION and "flesh out" your Opponent's Hand and do so as quickly as possible.

I recommend that you always make an initial assessment and assumption even BEFORE you see the Cut Card! Then, once you've seen just the first card played (whether Pone's Lead or Dealer's Reply), try to 'Suss Out' the remaining cards! Notice that if you were the Dealer today and holding (A A 2 9), that after Pone leads an Ace, you can *almost* predict a logical, reasonable, and small subset of possible hands that Pone could be holding! And you'll come closer to being correct if your initial assessment is at least slightly on-target.

Endgames are the most difficult, and it's where all of the rules for BIAS go berserk; but earlier in any game, you should often have a pretty good idea of the composition of your Opponent's Hand. And when it comes down to the final, as-yet unseen card, you should frequently know what that card is, perhaps even the suit!

   

Monday 10:46 AM

Very interesting

   

Monday 11:08 AM

Lead the 5. Dealer needs 4, might just go a 15-2 from dealer. If not, I have enough big cards, may be able to get a go.

   

Monday 12:17 PM

I can afford to give up a pair, but not a run with a go. Accordingly, I’m keeping the Ace and spacing the other cards out.

   

Monday 1:35 PM

Dealer needs four pegs. Don't believe would hold an escape card. If dealer was defending, might retain a King to play off safely. Not with n/d sitting at hole 120. Think dealer will retain the four cards most likely to peg and a King is not in the mix. Sure lead the King, dealer needs four pegs. If dealer has a five, most will take the 15-2. If needing three pegs, dealer might pass up the first two. With a 5-7-A remaining think n/d can wiggle enough to avoid giving up the four pegs dealer needs. N/D has two chances to win, peg one, or count first. Dealer has only one means to win - to peg 4. Don't play the dealer's game and chalk up a win.

   

Tuesday 2:47 AM

At 120-117* playing a Defense strategy the Our Peg Out %s and Dealer Peg Out %s plus the Hold Enough %s are:

Defense_____Dlr Peg Out %___Our Peg Out %___Hold Out %
5-7-Q-K________10.2_____________75.1__________100.0
5-7-10-Q_______10.2_____________75.1__________100.0
5-7-10-K_______10.7_____________74.7__________100.0
A-5-Q-K________11.5_____________76.4__________100.0
A-5-10-Q_______11.5_____________76.4__________100.0
A-5-10-K_______11.6_____________75.2__________100.0
5-10-Q-K_______14.3_____________69.6__________100.0
A-5-7-10_______16.6_____________75.4__________100.0
A-5-7-Q________16.6_____________75.4__________100.0
A-5-7-K________16.6_____________75.4__________100.0
A-7-10-Q_______16.7_____________77.1___________94.3
A-7-Q-K________16.7_____________77.1___________94.7
A-7-10-K_______16.7_____________77.1___________93.2
7-10-Q-K_______20.0_____________72.6___________94.2
A-10-Q-K_______20.5_____________71.0___________92.3

5-7-Q-K and 5-7-10-Q are lowest for Dealer pegging out so I'll select either A-10 or A-K to discard.

Afetr the A cut I'll lead the K and play Defense:

Lead________Dealer's Pegging Pts.______Win %
K_________________0.32_________________50.8
Q_________________0.31_________________48.9
5_________________0.23_________________36.0
7_________________0.20_________________34.2