Sunday 3:23 AM

2234 works with more cuts than does A223.

Don't think A4 is worth a two point reduction in the value of my hand.

   

Sunday 3:31 AM

With fifteen face cards remaining I will go for the fourteen point hands. Lets see if I be learnin something new today. dec

   

Sunday 3:54 AM

I liked 2 2 3 4 better than A 2 2 3 because I thought it has a better chance of working with the turn up.

   

Sunday 5:06 AM

I did it this way but I was probably wrong. Missed the 4-card 11 of 2-2-3-4. Total offense to the cut at -1/+13

   

Sunday 5:08 AM

I also like 2-2-3-4. Every cut helps and we get a dozen from not only every face card, but also from 6, 8, and 9 cuts. Plus outside shot for 18 with a 4 cut. 15 hand with a 2 cut, 16 with a 3. Just too many good cuts for this double run to toss it away in my opinion. I also like it slightly better for pegging, 4-card magic 11.

   

Sunday 5:11 AM

4-K is correct as it allows the possibility of 14. A-K is therefore a mistake.

   

Sunday 5:20 AM

It’s very very tempting to keep the 2-2-3-K here but from dealing at 69 I think we have to play the hand with the most certainty,not the most potential upside.we are almost certain to have at least 12-we should be able to peg 3 or 4 and hopefully a random 4 point crib puts us close to the 90 mark

   

Sunday 5:25 AM

It seems almost a 'wash' between Toss (A K) and Toss (4 K).

While the (A 2 2 3) hand will produce 14 points with any Ten Card or "X," the (2 2 3 4) hand with its four-card "Magic Eleven" will almost certainly peg better.

The (2 2 3 4) can also reach 18 points after three cuts (444), so this may offset any possible advantage of the (A 2 2 3) hand.

   

Sunday 5:28 AM

Keep the best hand and toss the rest today. Every cut increases the value of this hand.

   

Sunday 7:18 AM

was an internal debate whether to keep A223 or 2334 but after a bit too long realized that 2334 increases with every cut while A223 does not.

   

Sunday 7:29 AM

Hard to pass up A223 and shoot for 14 with any facecard. But 2234 has 3 other advantages: improves on any cut, possibility of an 18 hand, and pegging value. Often will get 31-4 by playing the 4 and then the 3 against all face cards.

   

Sunday 7:32 AM

More cuts help the 2234. Alot depends on the opponent's lead. I would prefer he have a bad hand and stifle the pegging, he if he leads a small card, then I have to engage. If possible hold the 2-2 for a parlay.

   

Sunday 1:47 PM

Just felt like pone would sluff an A to my crib. That's why I chose K,4 over K,A. Otherwise, I think both discards are equally unfortunate.

   

Sunday 2:00 PM

2-2-3-4=magic 11. Improves with any cut.

   

Sunday 3:31 PM

I think this is between A-2-2-3 (4-K), 2-2-3-4 (A-K) and 2-2-3-K (A-4):

A-2-2-3: 8pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.60) = 11½pts

2-2-3-4: 8pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.41) = 11½pts

2-2-3-K: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 11¼pts

Potential:

A-2-2-3: Improves with AAA, 22, 333, 4444, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 12/14/15/16pts with AAA, 22, 333, 4444, 9999 + 15xXs = 31 cuts.

2-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 22, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/15/16/18pts with 22, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts.

2-2-3-K: Improves with AAA, 22, 333, 4444, 5555, 8888 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 10/12/14pts with AAA, 22, 333, 4444 + 15xXs = 27 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt short of position and Pone is 13pts short of where they want to be. So I'll play Defense and try to consolidate our advantage.

Pegging:

All these hands will peg well but playing Defense I think 2-2-3-K will be best.

Summary:

A-2-2-3 and 2-2-3-4 are better for starting value by ¼pt and 2-2-3-4 has most cuts for improvement. Also it has most cuts for 12-18pts compared to 27 cuts for 10-14pts and 31 cuts for 12-16pts. So although 2-2-3-K may peg best I'll throw A-K.

   

Sunday 3:34 PM

At 69*-73 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
2-2-3-4___12.30+4.00+3.18=19.48____14.1____51.2
A-2-2-3___12.13+3.59+3.33=19.05____14.6____52.1
2-2-3-K____9.35+3.24+5.34=17.93____11.0____46.3

Offense_______L3 %____L4 %
2-2-3-4_______8.7_____28.0
A-2-2-3_______7.4_____25.9
2-2-3-K_______7.4_____30.3

2-2-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.43pt. However A-2-2-3 is slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s. As this is a critical board position I'll decide based on Win/Loss %s and select 4-K to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Sunday 8:07 PM

A -k. Is not really good for a crib but the other cards play well.

   

Sunday 9:27 PM

At hole 690, RAS will choose off., off., off.,(off. is short for offense, play on the lead. Have retained a fine 4-card "eleven from heaven" and a hand that scores 18 points with a 4 cut. With those potential advantages, see no reason to hold the smaller double run. The cribbot knows more than I do admittedly. Even so, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.