December 6, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
39%
28%
23%
5%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 189
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:15 AM
Defense and offense. Eleven count. nine thru Jacks to fill the crib. dec
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Friday 3:25 AM
Not much in it at all between 7-10 and 10 - 10. Stats say 7 - 10 marginally better. I'll go with that.
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:31 AM
We can try Toss (7 T), Toss (T T), or even try Toss (4 7). I see very little difference among these three choices.

Toss (7 T) or Toss (4 7) at least gets a 7 Card into our Crib, which I think I prefer to discarding a PAIR. A PAIR is only helped by either cards we were already dealt, or a 5 Card, both of which are very unlikely to come from 'over the board.'

Thus, I'll Toss (7 T) today, and hope we don't have a 'blank' for a Crib!
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

Friday 4:45 AM
First impressions: Go with 4 plus 2 points; pairs in the crib. This hand has more cuts for improvement. Another puzzle from Ras today.
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 4:48 AM
6+? should be more valuable than 4+2 in the final reckoning, so I'll ignore A-4-4-7 (10-10).

A-4-4-10 has two fives, so will do better after an X cut than A-4-10-10 will, (or equal if the X is a 10). Roughly two-thirds of the time the cut will be something other than an X however, (32/46 to be exact), and I don't like a discard to my own box that totals 16+ unless the cards are touching or a pair.

4-7 rather than 10-7 for me then, despite the negative delta of having a second 4 out of circulation.

10-A eleven to be deployed on an X lead.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Friday 5:42 AM
I like the defensive 7-4 magic 11 at this RP (+8/-8) holding pretty good cards.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Friday 6:13 AM
Horus93 has it right in my opinion.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 6:35 AM
All 3 legitimate choices starts us with combined 6 points, but like this hold for pegging - magic 11 and the pair of 4s May grab us some nice pegs.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Friday 7:48 AM
(10 10) for me.The other two choices(7 10) and (4 10) are close, though. The A-4-4-7 keep should peg best, I think.
RubyTuesday
897 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Friday 8:39 AM
10 10 to my crib to keep a nice hand for pegging.
zeke76
1367 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Friday 10:22 AM
like James I tried the 47 toss.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Friday 10:51 AM
Since we retain the same base starting points with the variety of discard options, I just needed to choose between 7,T and 7,4 in my crib. I would prefer 7,4 but chose to keep the 4 for pegging.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Friday 11:17 AM
Everybody has said it all.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 2:42 PM
A-4-4-7 (10-10) or A-4-4-10 (7-10D)?:

A-4-4-7: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.76) = 8¾pts

A-4-4-10: 6pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.23) = 9¼pts

Potential:

A-4-4-7: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/10/12pts with 44, 777 + 14xXs = 19 cuts.

A-4-4-10: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 6666, 777 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 44 + 14xXs = 19 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer I'll play Defense. Positional hole is 8pts although I'll try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

With a magic eleven I think A-4-4-7 should peg better.

Summary:

A-4-4-10 has a starting value ½pt more than A-4-4-7 but A-4-4-7 has slightly more cuts for improvement and has 19 cuts for 8-12pts which is a good improvement over 4pts. Also it should peg better so I'll throw the pair of 10s.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Friday 2:50 PM
I would rather throw 1010 than 710, or 47 holding another 4.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 2:52 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

__________________Pone's
Defense_____Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-4-4-10H___8.43+(-2.04)+3.13=9.52____34.1____47.7
A-4S-10-10__7.78+(-1.98)+3.63=9.48____33.4____47.8
A-4-4-7_____6.78+(-2.09)+4.65=9.34____34.3____46.6

Defense________L9 %____L10 %
A-4-4-10H______26.0____26.2
A-4S-10-10_____24.6____25.5
A-4-4-7________27.9____27.6

A-4-4-10H is best for expected averages by 0.04pt over A-4S-10-10 and 0.18pt over A-4-4-7. A-4-4-10H is slightly best for Win %s and although the Loss %s of A-4S-10-10 are slightly lower I'll select 7-10D to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:48 PM
As with yesterdays' puzzle, choice of strategy determines retention/discard choices. As dealer of first hand our predetermined choice is def. def., def. and play off the lead. Dealer of first hand only needs 7 points to have 50/50 chance of winning. In this case would pair a four lead. Otherwise will wiggle away. If you've noted, RAS will use off., off., off., or def., def., def. since there are three decision check points and a few questions associated with each. Do you know what those three check points might be? If not, e-mail raswino29@outlook.com. It's difficult to assess strategy needs without these checks? Once you've nailed this, it will come automatically to you, will take virtually no playing time, and will improve your rwinning percentage.
Ras2829 says: BTW in another position as dealer with these cards, choosing an offense pegging strategy, AS-4-4-7 with 10-10 discard would be absolutely correct.
Ras2829 says: Did you notice that HalscribCLX has already calculated our chances of winning on deal 9 and deal 10 of this game? Dealer here has 81.8% chance to win this game over those two deals.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Friday 4:59 PM
6-game report: Won 4 of 6 games, 705 out of 726, good enough for 3rd place. I was pone twice at the starting deal. Lost one of those 2 times as pone. More normal results than last week, which was a particularly bad day.

25 players today. With all those it surprises me 705 was good enough to get into the top 3. I was the only male in the top 3, if anyone is interested in that sort of thing. 1st and 2nd place were taken by the women.

I skunked 2 players.

An interesting pegging situation arose when Bernice was pone. But she was WAY behind - only 64 pts where I had at this moment 117. The count had arrived at 19. I was holding a J-A. My turn to play a card. I was first tempted to play my ace, forcing her to play maybe both her cards and I would get a last card point.

But on second thought, I decided to play my Jack, making the count 29, wanting to fight it out with my Ace. She played an A, I paired it for 31-4, ending the game. She wailed(pretending, of course), revealing that her last card was also an Ace! But she never got to play it.

Hopefully some of what I've learned here helped me make that play.

They had cake and ice cream afterwards, in honour of one of the women who turned 98 today. I asked her about her childhood. No refrigerator(they used ice blocks), coal furnace, more.

A good afternoon at the Seniors' Centre.
JQT says: When in doubt, always PUSH THAT COUNT!
JCM says: Yep. I feel sorry for Bernice, though. So far behind. She thought she was set to play her Ace pair to end the pegging and count her hand. Sadly, neither occurred for her. She was suddenly down and out. Couldn't have happened to a nicer gal :-)