December 4, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by horus93
78*-78  ?
51%
31%
8%
3%
2%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 182
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:24 AM
The question it seems is J-J or 2-4? I will go for the J K cuts. if 2-3 shows up in crib they probably have ten points or more in their hand. Not really a very good defensive hand maybe manage Jacks at the end. dec
dec says: 5 10 cuts on main hand also. dec
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:37 AM
I am going with 2-4 to our crib. Hand has the best expected averages (exp. avg. hand and exp. avg. crib values). This hand was my first choice. Yesterday's hand, my first pick was 4-4-9-9. Lesson learned: going with my first retention and discard selection.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:21 AM
In the real game I tossed 2-4 like most people probably will but looking it up after the fact J-Q 0.1 less for pure hand+crib and this will surely peg better.

At +8/-8 holding bad cards we should play offense to save our positional surplus.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:22 AM
Go for double run. Plus 2 - 4 not bad in crib
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:28 AM
I must have a dose of "hopenosis", as I've chosen to go with J-Q rather than the more conventional option of J-J.

I didn't think that this choice would be "on anybody's radar", and that I'd be a lone voice in mentioning it. Encouraged to read that Horus had also seen it, but then he does have a great eye!
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: Think you are right on for tow reasons. The J-Q are suited adding about .04 to their value and you have retained a Jack in close proximity to the 9 spot which adds potential value ot the hand. You've convinced me!
RubyTuesday
896 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:34 AM
Well I threw JJ thinking I’d feel pretty stupid if the turn up was a 10. I like my hand to peg with, and I’ve got points in hand and in my crib.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:37 AM
I'll toss the 2-4 in the crib and pray for some help. The 6 doesnt appear to be much help.

We are used to snowstorms in December in New England, but not this early in December. Knee deep snow that's like concrete.

JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:55 AM
We are the Dealer and we are well beyond the Third Street 'par' Hole 70, so it's time to relax and cruise on into VICTORY LANE. Or maybe not.

Similar to yesterday, we dealt ourselves "Yet Another Fine Mess" (as Laurel and Hardy were always purported to have said; but you see, they never actually did! And yet, I seem to digress...).

The thing is, "Another Fine Mess" was only the TITLE of one of their short films in 1930; the actual phrase they always uttered however was, "Another Nice Mess." But that's neither here nor there.

I actually had a huge black and white poster of Stanley Laurel and Oliver Hardy on my bedroom wall when I was a kid, from when I was about age eight until like age eighteen. But we should get back to Cribbage.

In fact, I think that old poster was still up on the wall when my parents sold the house while I was in college, two states away, in the late 1970s. That poster would likely be worth something today, and yet all I have is my memory of it. But try as I may, I continue to digress.

Today, we would like to keep the J-J-Q together, and yet we would also like to retain the (15-2) combination of 2-4-9, just like I wish I would have retained that old Laurel and Hardy poster!

We could Toss (J J), Toss (J Q), or Toss (2 4) today. Most will probably be tempted to Toss (J J), as it seems to Preserve the PEAR, and this is something we often will do from such hands if we are in a comfortable position.

But today, let's be different and Toss (J Q) suited instead, just to shock our audience. Maybe even more shocking is that I think I might even choose Toss (2 4) as my "runner-up" choice, putting the lowly Toss (J J) PAIR in Third Place! And look: I didn't even mention Jack Inflation or Intrinsic Points!

Remember the skit when Laurel and Hardy were delivery men, and they had to carry that piano up that enormous flight of stairs? It's called, "The Music Box," and those stairs still exist on North Vendome Street in Los Angeles. Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Music_Box

And you can still watch this exquisite old 1932 classic film at: https://youtu.be/yaOGkiE2PRc
Ras2829 says: Laurel and Hardy were such talents. Fine to digress with "another nice mess"!
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:50 AM
This is what I would do. Look forward to learning why I should have done otherwise.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 10:07 AM
Hate to give up on the K or 10 cut. But points are at a premium with this unmitigated mess. Keep 2 in hand, 2 in crib. And this hand should peg better. Try to get down the board and hope for better next hand.
joekayak says: OOPS. Thought about this keep. But meant to keep 2-4-9-Q. My comment applies to keeping 2-4-9-Q.
joekayak says: OOPS. Thought about this keep. But meant to keep 2-4-9-Q. My comment applies to keeping 2-4-9-Q.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 10:29 AM
Here we have a suited J-Q discard and a chance to retain a 9-J gapper. That makes this approach slightly better than discard of J-J. The J-J would have been my choice if not for those two factors. Dealing from 78 (3rd street CPX 69-73), it's move on down the board time. So am thinking off., off., off. and will play on the lead.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Wednesday 12:20 PM
I wouldn't have thought of (Jd Qd) as discard, but after reading the comments, I'm persuaded it could be a good call.
JQT says: When there is a choice between Toss (J J) and Toss (J Q), I've found them to be of nearly EQUAL value in terms of ultimate points generated. So, as RAS indicates, it is often best to choose the discard that leaves the better opportunity in your hand.
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 2:47 PM
I think it's between 2-4-9-Q (J-J) and 9-J-J-Q (2-4) or perhaps 2-4-9-JC (JD-Q):

2-4-9-Q: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 7¼pts

9-J-J-Q: 2pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.52) = 6½pts

2-4-9-JS: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 6¾pts

Potential;

2-4-9-Q: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 999, QQQ = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 6/7pts with 222, 3333, 444, 999 = 13 cuts.

9-J-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 6666, 999 + 13xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/8/10pts with 5555, 10101010, JJ, KKKK = 14 cuts. Plus 11 diamonds and 12 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 0.50pt.

2-4-9-JS: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 999, 10101010, JJ = 361 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 5/6/7pts with AAA, 3333, 444, 999, 10101010 = 17 cuts. Plus 12 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Position:

We're 8pts past positional hole and Pone is 8pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll play Defense to maintain this.

Pegging:

2-4-9-Q and 2-4-9-JS should peg better but playing Defense I think 9-J-J-Q may.

Summary:

2-4-9-Q has a starting value ¾pt more than 9-J-J-Q and ½pt more than 2-4-9-JS but the 9-J-J-Q has ½pt potential for his nob and 2-4-9-JS has ¼pt. 9-J-J-Q has slightly fewer cuts for improvement but for a better maximum with 24 cuts for 6-10pts. Also it may peg better defensively. So I'll throw 2-4.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 2:49 PM
At 78*-78 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
2-4-9-JS__4.35+(-2.04)+4.68=6.99____19.9____52.5
9-J-J-Q___4.85+(-2.33)+4.38=6.90____21.9____54.1
2-4-9-Q___3.87+(-2.04)+5.03=6.86____18.5____51.3

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
2-4-9-JS_____17.3____31.7
9-J-J-Q______16.5____29.6
2-4-9-Q______17.0____32.8

2-4-9-JS is best for expected averages by 0.09pt over 9-J-J-Q but in this critical board position 9-J-J-Q is appreciably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-4 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.