December 3, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by horus93
98*-105  ?
43%
22%
15%
11%
3%
1%
1%
Total votes: 179
dec
6328 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:38 AM
If your going to keep the 8-9-9 together instead of 4-4 do the 4-5 to make the 6-7 cuts even better. dec
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:48 AM
I wanted to keep the 8-9-9 together. To start with 4 points I would have to hold 4-4-9-9 but 30 cuts keep the hand at 4 points. Also not crazy about 5-8 to our crib today.
Retain 4-8-9-9 and toss the high value combination of 4-5 to our crib.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:42 AM
I went for keeping the 4-4-5 together. Everything but an Ace helps either crib and/or hand. Felt that 4-4-5-8 pegs defensively better.
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:45 AM
I agree with Rosemarie. I need points. Have to either keep 445 or 899. The 5 in my crib decided which for me.
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:08 AM
4-4-9-9 (5-8) is very much a "boom or bust" option. Our position isn't too shabby though, so we don't have to pin all our hopes on a 2 being cut.

4-5 from me also.
JQT says: Dealing from Hole 98, as long as we can hold Pone 'short,' we should get our Three Counts put to work for us. These tend to average Twenty-Six Points, which would place us at 98 plus 26 equals Hole 124, or Three Holes beyond VICTORY. Therefore, we can probably afford to have a slightly inferior Hand plus Crib here, as long as we tend to the main objective of inhibiting Pone's ability to peg and exceed his or her Ten-Point average. Toss (4 5) however does allow you to retain a fairly defensive hand for the pegging, so it's difficult to criticize this decision. Still, if there is ever a time to trade "chance" for "certainty," this may be that time, as we are already in a fairly good position.
james500 says: Hi John, hope all's well. Thanks for taking the time to respond to my post, and for the literary recommendations you made in Cwed's "box". I already have the Shulz book, (you must've mentioned it another time too as 2012 is before I joined), but I will put The Black Swan on my list to Santa.
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:24 AM
a 7 for the turn ... cool
Gougie00
5703 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:39 AM
The 5 is going into the crib, but with what? I'll try the 5-8.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:47 AM
Would rather have 45 in the crib than 89, 99 or 58.
mfetchCT425
1383 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:56 AM
I think we need the high potential 4-5 in the crib and keep 8-9-9 together in the hand. I like 4-5 over 5-8 and willing to sacrifice 2 points before the cut to toss these touching cards (with the 5) in the crib. With the nice cut for 10 in hand and potential for a decent crib, will peg cautiously. Let’s evaluate opponent’s hand against the cut card to help us with pegging decisions as we get deeper into the pegging sequences.
JQT
4137 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:11 AM
The least likely cards we are bound to either Cut or receive from Pone are a 4 Card or a 9 Card, as we were dealt half of these.

But if we Keep (4 4 9 9), then 16 Cuts (2222, 44, 6666, 7777, 99) can help us, and we get the powerful Toss (5 8) into our Crib, which is as good as almost any PAIR.

Toss (4 5) would be my second choice, but I believe we shall peg a little bit more defensively with the Two PAIRS in our hand, and thus maybe we can get our full Three Counts in for the WIN!
Rosemarie44 says: My first thought was that this hand, 4-4-9-9 would peg more defensively, too. But, in the end I chose 4-5 to our crib for reasons stated.
JQT says: Touching Cards such as Toss (4 5) and Toss (8 9) are certainly good discards, but in either case, we are breaking up an existing PAIR, so we have to ask if either of these can 'make up for' those lost Two Points. I think Toss (4 5) actually might, but as you indicated, holding Two PAIRS is a bit safer during the pegging. I think both of our choices should fare well in such a position.
Ras2829 says: It seems to me that the choices here will be very close. The 4-4, 4-5, 5-8, and 9-9 will likely all be within .5 of a point tightly clustered. Will defer to HalscribCLX as to what the exact values will be.
cribbagepogo says: Seems you threw away two chances for double run. I won't guarantee no double run, make a choice.
JQT says: I *always* look at the POSITION before I look at my cards: Yes, I traded Eight out of Forty-Six Cuts (or around 17%) of "chance" for a few points of "certainty," mostly because we are ALREADY Two Holes beyond 'par,' and so our winning odds are more dependent upon Restraining Our Opponent as opposed to Generating (more) Points. No amount of additional points will help us today if Pone pegs enough to WIN with First Hand Show! In Summary: Pone has the burden here of 'chasing' points by playing the odds; I believe that we sit more comfortably by playing strategically, as we can probably afford it.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: You pegged position considerations right on Dealer needs to be in 4th street CPZ (95-99) and non-dealer averages 9-10 points. Ten would put non-dealer of this hand at 115. Many look at this and believe dealer is losing as only has 98 compared to 105 for n/d. Not so - positional considerations suggest dealer of this hand has a good chance to win game if exercising a bit of caution.
horus93 says: I disagree. We want to be well past 110 to have good odds. Every point we make will help us. 96 is a marginal spot with a 50/50 chance per 25/26 theory.
horus93 says: *dealing from 96
horus93 says: And the fact that the 10 points average puts pone at 115 is only all the more reason for us NOT to play defensively. There's be more cause for caution if pone was further up, not the other way around!
Ras2829 says: Hi horus93: Dealing from 98 is a good position for dealer to have the deck. Fourth street CPZ is 95-99; dealer is well into that zone. If not playing def., def., def. might push up a gear to optimal. If choosing offense strategy, n/d of this hand will likely be so close that pegging out with dealer advantage on the next.
Ras2829 says: BTW if there is anybody in this audience who would like to know more about CPZ's, E-mail raswino29@outlook.com
JQT says: If we accurately assess our *relative* position today, I believe horus93 is 'on the mark,' in my opinion, especially IF we are able to make use of the fact that we could 'clinch' this game at probably an 80% or greater rate, but only IF our cards allow for it. With a poor or *marginal* hand, I feel that we still have sufficiently good odds of winning here, but ONLY if we switch to a DEFENSIVE posture. AT Two Points beyond 'par,' and as the Current Dealer, these two themes ALLOW US to basically choose one strategy or the other! Looking at our cards, I decided to abandon the offensive approach, not because it's a bad idea, but because I think this poor hand lends itself better to a *defensive* approach. And so let me elaborate and explain further: A strictly positional player would attribute and then apply a defensive approach to the fact that we already have a POSITIONAL ADVANTAGE; a traditional player however might say that we have 'Dealer Control' and thus we enjoy the 'flexibility' of either choosing offense or defense. I think DEFENSE will prevail slightly more often here; but most importantly, I think (and specifically, using horus93's logic), we must specifically *commit* to one idea or the other! Half measures, and trying to 'straddle' both offense and defense together here, will very likely NOT fare well in such a relative position. Either playing offense and doing so boldly and confidently, or instead just purely playing defense, and committing to this choice, should allow us to prevail MOST OF THE TIME today. In the abstract, I frequently like to employ defense, because by extending the duration of the game, it often gives us the option to switch to offense later. For example, with my choice of Toss (5 8), we may end up as the Dealer AGAIN Two Deals hence from say (118*-119), which means a full, offensive pegging battle would possibly still be ahead of us. But such an endgame would probably never be possible if we attempted and failed with an earlier offensive posture during the present deal. But let's be clear: this is my own *style* of play. Thus, the real take-away today might be to realize that, even if playing defense wins say 70% of the time here, and offense wins say 68% of the time, each choice, if played well, is likely to be extremely close to the other. And so, what we should take away from this puzzle, in my opinion, is the fact that with either choice, the important issue is probably to COMMIT TO IT FULLY. That is of course just my own thoughts and speculation on this, and as always, I'm interested in any others' thoughts and ideas as well. Very Good Puzzle, horus93!
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:26 AM
Given the choice of 8-9 or 4-5, we first have to choose whether we want to play offence or defense.

Considering that this hand has plenty of potential and little substance, we have to choose defense. I don't necessarily like the 4 as my "escape" card but my choice is rather limited. Far to often when I toss 5-8 one of those cards is totally useless in the generation of points.

The pone's initial play will at least give us a clue about what direction is planned for the dealer.
horus93
1273 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:45 AM
I like the 5 in hand in this offensive position (+2/-6). Hand+crib averages are very close between tosses 4-4, 5-8 and 4-5 and I like the odds of getting two points for a 15 to pone's tenth card lead.
Ras2829 says: Hi horus93: Although we do not agree on choosing offense in this position, this is a very fine puzzle.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:52 AM
Today was tough decision. Obviously need some serious points to be in position next hand. There are only four 2's to get that 12 point cut with 4,4,9,9, but there are eight cuts to get us the double the double; but at a cost of 2 fer'sure points. Going to rely on past experience that 5 in the crib will be rewarded.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:08 AM
I think the (4 5) discard will likely produce more pts in the crib than 4-4-5 will in the hand. Reason: 3 more cards to add to the discard in the crib, but only 1 more card to be added to the 4-4-5 in hand, plus, opp usually puts an X-card or 2 in his Opp's crib. He often places a middle card as well, which could synergize with our (4 5) discard.

At 98*-105, we can afford to be cautious in our pegging. Plan to finish on 1st count next hand.
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:21 AM
I went for the "kabangi cut" (Duane Toll's term for a cut cart that helps the dealer's hand and crib) and was rewarded. With 10 points in the hand and at least 4 in the crib, I will peg cautiously in case the 7-cut also helped the pone.
cwed says: *cut card
Ras2829 says: Hi cwed: Like your thinking and to admit Duane Toll has an influence makes your choice even stronger.
JQT says: You do both preserve all Four Points we were dealt and allow for the Double Run with this discard decision. Dan Barlow liked to stress looking for a worst-case scenario that we can still both endure and survive. For example, if Pone has a Sixteen-Point-Hand, we are already lost; similarly, if Pone is dealt an awful, Two-Point Mess, we should easily WIN. So, what are we mostly trying to fight (and prevail) against here? Today, I think this might be Pone holding a Dozen Points and needing to peg Four Holes. If this is the case, and Pone leads a 7 Card, I want the option to Play Off as much as possible. Holding Two PAIRS is not perfect, but it is a fairly inert arrangement.
JQT says: If anyone wishes, please refer to my lengthy entry near the bottom of the page on the 'Hand of the Day' puzzle from June 18, 2012 for many book recommendations I listed for Cribbage. Ref: https://www.dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2012/06/18
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:25 PM
4-8-9-9 (4-5), 4-4-5-8 (9-9) or 4-4-9-9 (5-8):

4-8-9-9: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 8½pts

4-4-5-8: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 7¼pts

4-4-9-9: 4pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.48) = 9½pts

Potential:

4-8-9-9: Improves with 2222, 3333, 44, 6666, 7777, 888, 99, 10101010 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 6/8/10pts with 2222, 6666, 7777, 99, 10101010 = 18 cuts.

4-4-5-8: Improves with 2222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 16xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 6/12pts with 2222, 3333, 44, 6666, 7777 = 18 cuts.

4-4-9-9: Improves with 2222, 44, 6666, 7777, 99 = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 44, 6666, 99 = 12 cuts.

Position:

We're 2pts past positional hole and Pone is 5pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 4-4-9-9 will peg best.

Summary:

4-4-9-9 has the best starting value but has the fewest number of cuts for improvement whilst 4-4-5-8 starts with the lowest but has the most cuts. Both 4-4-5-8 and 4-4-9-9 have a maximum of 12pts but 4-4-5-8 has 8 cuts (3333, 6666) while 4-4-9-9 has only 4 (2222). Will this make up the 2¼pts difference in starting value. I think it might so I'll throw the 9-9.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:29 PM
At 98*-105 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W1 %___W2 %
4-4-9-9___5.57+(-2.09)+5.58=9.06____0.7____40.7
4-8-9-9___4.48+(-2.11)+6.55=8.92____1.5____39.7
5-8-9-9___5.22+(-2.11)+5.56=8.67____2.2____39.6
4-4-5-8___5.57+(-2.28)+4.94=8.23____2.6____37.4

Defense______L1 %___L2 %
4-4-9-9______8.3____54.4
4-8-9-9______10.1___56.0
5-8-9-9______10.5___55.7
4-4-5-8______12.3___57.2

4-4-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.14pt. The top three hands are approximately equal for Win %s but 4-4-9-9 is lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 5-8 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5126 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:54 PM
The key to the discard choice is position and choice of strategy. If choosing defense, retaining cards of two ranks (4/9) is preferable over retaining a greater variety. If choosing an offense pegging strategy as some have indicated 4-4-5-8 offers the better offensive pegging. Agree with playing off the lead although would 15-2 a six lead. If opponent showing small cards will try to split the fours rather than holding till end of pegging sequence. If not showing small cards, will hold the fours and attempt to peg them back to back with the likely "go".
Ras2829 says: BTW with opponent needing 16 to win with first count, would not pair either a 4 or 9 lead.
RubyTuesday
897 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 2:03 PM
I wanted 5 in my crib and to keep 8 9 9 so it had to be a 4 5 throw.