November 17, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by James500
72*-84  ?
36%
34%
11%
9%
4%
2%
0%
Total votes: 173
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:09 AM
While Keep (3 4 5 7) and Toss (A T) probably will produce the most offense, I tend to err on the defensive side of the ledger, and so I'll Keep (A 3 4 7) and Toss (5 T) today.
JQT says: Whether we Toss (A T) or Toss (5 T) today, it's crucial to notice that, while we now enjoy a two-point positional advantage, Pone only trails achieving 'par' by two holes as well. Notice that with either hand here how upsetting a 5 Card Lead by Pone might be! With the former idea and my choice of Toss (5 T), the Ace Reply looks all fine and dandy, but then we might get into a serious pegging logjam later. And with the latter choice of Toss (A T), we would either be forced into a "Battle of RUNS" or into a very dangerous PAIRING of the 5 Card Lead. This puzzle illustrates why the 5 Card Lead can often be so disruptive "over the board," and it's a good illustration of how intimidating it can be in such a closely-contested relative position. Leading a 5 Card is sometimes rather like a bluff in poker: we don't want to do it every time we're able to do it; but used judiciously, the 5 Card Lead can be an extremely effective tactical tool in your arsenal as Pone, and we should be wary of it today as the Dealer when in such a very close and tightly-knit game.
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 3:28 AM
I hate to break up a run if I don't have to.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 3:42 AM
Like this hand. Every cut helps except the 9, with a chance for a max of 14. I think too much potential in this hand to break it up. Has a magic 11 to help with defensive pegging.
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 3:43 AM
I like this hand and 5-T in my crib today.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:51 AM
The first two postings capture the best of these six cards. The 3-4-5-7 has a substantial edge on hand score and pegging potential. That is enough to offset the potential value of the 5-10 discard. Will defer to HalscribCLX on those exact numbers. Choosing an optimal pegging strategy, the 3-4-5-7 has the edge by a whisker. Based on scant empirical evidence, the difference between these two choices is less than .2. Opponent needs 11 to reach 4th street CPZ (95-99). So will peg in ways that seam reasonably safe not to give up runs or a possible triple. No need to exchange pegs if a ten spot is led. Play the 7 to advance the count beyond 15, likely close the count at 31 with the four. Will play off the lead. Th pegging as dealer is enhanced by the presence of the 2-card "eleven-from-heaven" and the 3-card 'sweet sixteen".
Ras2829 says: If not playing the hand in this manner would have retained A-3-4-7.
RubyTuesday
897 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 4:04 AM
I like this for the reasons given above.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:16 AM
Now all we need to do is cut a four .. that did not happen so utilize that eleven and hope they slowed down. dec
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 4:16 AM
A few options to contemplate and discuss. I'd like to try splitting up the run by discarding A-4.

A guarantee of six combined points. Only the cut of a 9 is of no immediate help, so probably more.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 4:44 AM
With James A-4 might lead to best results. Best for points anyway. Pegging don't know. After that I prefer A-7
Andy (muesli64) says: Despite what it says in the box on the right A - 4 is my throw.
Andy (muesli64) says: Despite what it says in the box on the right A - 4 is my throw.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 5:07 AM
345 stays together. The question is A7 or A10 in the crib. I went A7, and that apparently is the wrong answer. I might learn something new today.

16 degrees in northern Massachusetts. Winter came early and so much for global warming.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 5:09 AM
Offense on the hand score, defense with the pegging. Possible 14 hand, with a magic 11.
scottcrib
1608 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 6:05 AM
Agree with Jazzselke. Go for max points. Toss A-10; my feeling is that opponent is more likely to toss me a 4 rather than a 7/8.
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Sunday 7:29 AM
I'm all alone tossing the A-4, which is the only discard guaranteed to result in at least 6 points. I'm behind - I need points! My second choice (and one I would have gone with if the scores were closer) was toss the A-T and keep the 3 card run.
wasa says: Sorry - not all alone. James also admits to tossing the A-4
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 8:49 AM
I, too, go for (A 4) discard. While (5 10) averages 2 pts more than (A 4) in our crib, we're starting with 4 pts before the cut, while with (5 10) we start with only 2 pts before the cut.

We'd like to make about 14+ pts this hand/crib. With the 8 cut we look to have 6(hand) + 5(crib) = 13. So would like to peg cautious offense to make 1 or more pegging pts. Make 15s and only safe runs and pairs.

Ex if count is 11 and Opp plays a 7, pair it - he can't triple(because he would have to go over 31 to do that), so it's safe to pair. If he plays a 10, pair it for 4 safe pts! Unsafe to pair the 3 or 5 if count is 11.
JCM says: I believe 6+5 =11. Where's my coffee?!! So we want 3 or more pegging pts. Cautious offense is still correct, I think.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Sunday 10:21 AM
3,4,5,7 was my first choice. But decided to do something different and see what happens.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 11:08 AM
Surprised to be in the minority today. None of the other tosses are worth starting with less than 6 points imo, even if a-4 is fairly lackluster. I don't believe the runs will outpeg this keep by enough to make it worth it.

I'd play offense to the cut and hope for the best.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 1:16 PM
Several options - 3-4-5-7 (A-10), 3-4-5-10 (A-7), 3-5-7-10 (A-4) and A-3-4-7 (5-10):

3-4-5-7: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.42) = 8½pts

3-4-5-10: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.85) = 8¾pts

3-5-7-10: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

A-3-4-7: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 8½pts

Potential:

3-4-5-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/12/14pts with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 = 20 cuts.

3-4-5-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 101010 = 20 cuts.

3-5-7-10: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 84.8% up to 7/8/10pts with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 101010 = 19 cuts.

A-3-4-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 777, 8888 = 23 cuts.

Position:

We're 2pts past positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where they need to be. I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

All these hands will peg quite well but with a 3-card magic eleven I think A-3-4-7 will peg best.

Summary:

3-5-7-10 has the best starting value and good potential with 19 cuts for 7-10pts. A-3-4-7 starts with ¾pt less but has 23 cuts for 6-8pts which is a tremendous improvement from 2pts. It also should peg well even playing Defense. So I'll throw the 5-10.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 1:24 PM
At 72*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
A-3-4-7___4.98+(-2.13)+6.63=9.48____10.9____23.8
3-4-5-10__7.98+(-2.20)+3.68=9.46____11.6____25.6
3-5-7-10__6.50+(-2.33)+5.28=9.45____11.0____26.1
3-4-5-7___8.33+(-2.13)+3.11=9.31____12.2____25.5

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
A-3-4-7______47.1____68.9
3-4-5-10_____44.5____66.3
3-5-7-10_____43.9____65.9
3-4-5-7______45.7____66.3

A-3-4-7 is best for expected averages by the slender margin of 0.02pt over 3-4-5-10 and 0.03pt over 3-5-7-10. 3-4-5-10 and 3-5-7-10 are almost equal for Win %s but 3-5-7-10 is slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select A-4 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.