November 16, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by mfetchct425
0*-0  ?
35%
23%
20%
12%
5%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 173
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:21 AM
It is a bit sad that a preponderance of puzzles begin from (0-0), whether we are Dealer or Non-Dealer.

Because as far as the exceedingly numerous possible relative positions go, isn't this one of the most boring of them all?

But nonetheless, it is at least a position that is "seen" during each and every game, so let us not despair and let us dive in and "see" what we can "see."

Right off the bat, let's first dismiss Toss (T T) as something we might possibly do much later in a game, but certainly not from the position of (0*-0). Surely, we can do better than this!

I believe we could possibly choose between Toss (2 3) and Toss (4 5), and I must admit that the former seems entirely better in every way than the latter.

But 'lo and behold' we could also Toss (5 T) here, and thus both retain the superb 2-3-4 RUN and meanwhile also get a 5 Card stowed away into our Crib. What's not to like about this?!

We cannot (or at least should not) deny the POWER of Toss (2 3) without some analysis. And so, I believe here is where the 'crux' of the beauty of this puzzle may lie. Is it better to begin with Hand plus Crib of "Six plus Two" or rather "Five plus Two"? Food for Thought, at least!

While I do indeed love the Toss (5 T) discard, I am forever keenly aware and looking for that 'eutectic' mixture of "Hand plus Crib" that, as the Dealer, will give us the best overall total. And in this case, I think Toss (2 3) simply 'wins the day' here.

I once proposed that a player might experiment with the idea of Toss (2 3) to her/his Own Crib whenever it were possible, and as a result, not fare too badly overall. And yet, in addition to this 'whimsical theory,' I am also adding in over Fifty Years of experience of playing Cribbage in making my decision. I'm not so sure that that even helps me today!

You might argue with me or with my reasoning, but that's what Cribbage is all about. Bring it on!
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:22 AM
An opportunity to toss 2-3 in my crib with today's hand. This was the deciding factor for me .
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:24 AM
I see 4-5, 5-10 and 10-10, but it's 2-3 for me.
james500 says: Unrelated to today's puzzle, but found an article on Reddit which may be of interest. https://www.reddit.com/r/Cribbage/comments/dwxpz7/i_wrote_a_program_to_figure_out_what_peg_you_need/
wasa says: Thanks for the reddit link James. I was a bit confused when it says 100% chance of winning from hole 117 through 120. I'm sure many of us have had a zero point hand, 1 or 2 point crib, and then a zero point hand again. Pretty sure I have lost when dealing from 117 or so over my 40+ years of playing cribbage.
dec says: example. 120-108* Hand dealt 3-4-7-10-Q-K , 7-K discarded 9 cut. Yes they went out on the crib. dec
james500 says: Hi both. I can't vouch for the validity of the data, but it seemed to me to be on the same "wavelength" of Ras' Cpz theory. The latter half of the post which talks about card retention preferences, if accurate, I think also provides food for thought. Good to see someone doing some statistical analysis of the game in any case.
Hillchem says: This comment would probably fit more on the Reddit page, but I'm not creating an account there so: This also agrees with the stats on Cribbage Pro that found that good cribbage players tend to score an average of 16.2 points as dealer and 10.1 points as non-dealer. http://blog.cribbagepro.net/2012/08/cribbage-pro-multiplayer-analysis-tips.html
Hillchem says: wasa, regarding the 100%. I see that all the values in the list are rounded to 2 decimal place. Thus for the 115 and 116 it is 99.99%. At those numbers, it found that 0.01% of the time (or 1 in 10000) you will lose. For 117 to 120, the chance of losing is less than 0.01% (or 1 in 10000), which seems appropriate to me.
Hillchem says: Oh, also the person notes that he did not consider the opponents score at all, so did not attempt to consider if the opponent would win before you went out.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 3:32 AM
Lots of nice options but I will go for the tried and trusted 2-3.
dec
6351 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:43 AM
This could be twenty four combined with just the right cards left that could combine. Then again sixteen after this hand would do also. dec
mrob2199
1428 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 4:50 AM
Nice puzzle mike-I think I like the 2-3 discard the best here-you’re keeping 6 with the premium 2-3 toss to the crib-and you have a good shot of amassing 20 total points with an ace,3 or 5 cut-also I like the 5 in my hand for pegging purposes-if I keep 2-3-4-10-which is my 2nd choice-I’ll have to break up my 2-3-4 right away if pone leads a 9.10,J or Q
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:17 AM
I'm not very unique today.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 5:54 AM
I'm for the (2 3) discard. Keeps 4-5-10-10.

I might keep 2-3-4-5 if I need to peg a lot. Especially if I'm dealer in the endgame.

Something I didn't do in my last game in yesterday's 6 game match - and I fell short by 1 point. :-)
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 5:56 AM
You'd think I'd have learned this lesson by now. The right answer is always 2-3!
mfetchCT425
1394 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 6:03 AM
Thanks for the great comments today. In my earlier Cribbage years, I used to always toss 5-10 from this hand retaining the three touching low cards. 5-10 to own crib is no slouch. But have learned over the years the power of 2-3 toss to our crib. The 4-5-10-10 seems a little awkward for pegging, but as Rob mentions above, we have the 5 for pegging, so not too bad.
zeke76
1389 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 6:33 AM
So I tossed 45 instead of 23 for reasons of pegging. Brown suggests 23 is better Pre-pegging by .3. I take it we aren’t likely to make that much up with 23 vs 45 in pegging.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 11:00 AM
6 points and 2-3 to my own crib. Good start. OOPS. Bad cut.
Cribsurfer
762 votes

Joined: September 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 11:11 AM
I like 4-5, I like 5-10 but I'm pretty sure 2-3 is the way to go
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 2:28 PM
Several possibilities - 2-3-4-5 (10-10), 2-3-4-10 (5-10), 2-3-10-10 (4-5) or 4-5-10-+10 (2-3):

2-3-4-5: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.76) = 8¾pts

2-3-4-10: 5pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 11½pts

2-3-10-10: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 12½pts

4-5-10-10: 6pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 12¾pts

Potential:

2-3-4-5: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/9/10/12prs with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 8888 + 14xXs = 38 cuts.

2-3-4-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 1010 = 18 cuts.

2-3-10-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 1010 = 18 cuts.

4-5-10-10: improves with AAAA, 333, 444, 555, 6666 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 9/10/11/12pts with AAAA, 333, 555, 6666, 1010 = 16 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is 8pts but I'll try to score the average 16pts or more. so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

2-3-4-5 will peg well and also 2-3-4-10.

Summary:

2-3-10-10 and 4-5-10-10 start with the most but have fewer cuts for improvement. 2-3-4-10 starts with 2¾pt more than 2-3-4-5 and it has nearly as many cuts for improvement but only 18 cuts for 9-12pts. But as it starts with 2¾pt more I'll throw the 5-10.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:36 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
4-5-10-10_8.28+(-2.33)+6.57=12.52____43.4____55.4
2-3-10-10_8.28+(-2.22)+6.28=12.34____42.1____55.2
2-3-4-10__7.91+(-2.17)+6.38=12.12____43.1____54.4
2-3-4-5___8.57+(-2.07)+4.49=10.99____40.8____51.6

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
4-5-10-10_____26.4____20.3
2-3-10-10_____24.9____20.1
2-3-4-10______27.7____21.4
2-3-4-5_______28.7____23.8

4-5-10-10 is best for expected averages by 0.18pt and is slightly best for Win %s. It is second best to 2-3-10-10 for Loss %s so I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:03 PM
Ah yes, it's the 2-3. That's so with any pair of X-pointers. Not so if your X-pointers are single. Then it's 5-X in this order as available: 5-J 7.088 (1,678) 3/91; 5-K 6.726 ((1,742) 5/91; 5-10 6.698 6/91; and 5-Q 6.593 (1,251) 7/91. Opening hand of the game with crib on my side of the board, it's def., def., def., and play off the lead although would get rid of the lone 5 on any XC-pointer led. Would pair a 10 spot in the second pegging sequence as n/d will most often break a Pair when leading from the large cards. Pairing X-pointers in second pegging sequence has high success ratio. Not so with small cards as pairs are often retained and led late in pegging sequences. BTW RAS shows the 2-3 with an average even higher than shown by HalscribCLX at 7.135 on 2,662 2/91 tosses to own crib in live play. Only 5-5 has a higher average than does the 2-3 couplet.
Ras2829 says: Regarding limiting opponent as n/d to low scores, De Lynn Colvert in his book "Play Winning Cribbage" put together a chart way ahead of others. The chart was included in the first edition of his book published in 1980 (nearly 40 years ago). It shows that non-dealer scores zero 1/1000, scores 1 at 1/250 rate, scores 2 at 1/70 frequency; and scores 3 at a 1/33 clip. Those seem like real solid numbers to me based on my playing experience. Think the book still available though De Lynn recently passed away. It's well worth the $15 or so that it costs. Most of today's cribbage experts did so on the shoulders of this great cribbage player. Although still working to become expert, RAS admits to such a foundation. Thanks De Lynn for having such an impact on my life!
Hillchem says: The cribbage world dedicated to him was a terrific read. I just finished it last week.
Ras2829 says: Hi Hillchem: Amen! Agree that the special issue of Cribbage World was a great tribute to a unique soul. DeLynn Colvert was born in a railroad boxcar in Stanley North Dakota in 1931. He reached the pinnacle of success in Cribbage World, spread the gospel of this wonderful game, and revolutionized how the game is played. He truly re-invented the game.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 11:59 PM
Arriving late to the polls.