November 15, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
57-51*  ?
42%
37%
17%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 191
dec
6328 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:22 AM
I was a tad worry about the pegging getting out of control here thus the four lead. Still chances to have eight to fourteen here. dec
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Friday 3:30 AM
Time for coffee! Tossing A-4 and the then the starter card shows up!
Goo says: Some Same here
JQT
4137 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:36 AM
Toss (A 8) seems a bit safer than Toss (A 4), and I think we might also peg more defensively with the former. I may lead a 5 Card, or I may not.
JQT says: We can still adopt an 'Offensive Posture' even after a Defensive Discard. With over a dozen points needed in order to reach 'par,' I've accepted that we shall likely come up short. So while we might attempt to peg opportunistically, as we are Pone, it is the best time to discard defensively. As Next Dealer, we should have plenty of opportunity remaining to crank up the Offensive Ideas and get back on track.
JQT says: As I have written in the past on numerous occasions, when we are behind this early in a game, I think it's best not to attempt to solve our full deficit in one fell swoop, especially while we are Pone. We're not even half way though this game, and so we shall have plenty of time to solve this positional problem. And so, let's not make things even worse!
mrob2199
1408 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 3:42 AM
Have to bite the bullet here and risk the dangerous 7-8 discard—any picture or 3 gives us 10,and a 5 or 6 gives us 14-just too much value to break up-would lead the ace and hope the dealer has pictures so we can add a few pegging points
glmccuskey
4076 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Friday 4:34 AM
We need to do what we can to get around the corner as far as possible. I like keeping the 4-5-5 together and the ace goes with those cards. I’ll lead the ace.
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 5:21 AM
Seems I'm well out of step with the group today, I was wrestling with a choice between A-7 or 4-8.

5c lead from my 5-5-A eleven.
scottcrib
1609 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Friday 5:39 AM
Another puzzle from me today. In my mind, the best choices were toss A-8 or A-4. Toss 7-8 seems too risky even if it means me keeping the pretty valuable A-4-5-5. I didn't want to give up the 4-5-5 set and the 8 doesn't go with this trio, so A-8 it is.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Friday 5:52 AM
Echo JQT comment. Except I probably won't lead the 5.
Ras2829
5126 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 5:59 AM
Third street CPZ (69-73) is beckoning me for the upcoming deal. This hand gives me a chance to meet that end. A-4-5-5 has good scoring potential with many X-point possibilities. After seeing the starter card and knowing that I have 8 points, have chosen an offense p[egging strategy and will lead the Ace. BTW I was thinking offense when I looked at these six cards relative to my positional needs. If not paying this hand, would have selected 4-5-5-7. Don't see playing defense at hole 57. Am always concerned about the potential of the 7-8 discard on the other side of the board. BTW I was the beneficiary last evening in club of a 24 crib with 7-8 discard by opponent. They were at hole 58 and I was at hole 60. Their hand was 5-5-10-10 (7-8). They were kicking themselves about their bad decision. Pointed out the results were bad - the decision was outstanding. "Do it again every chance you get, given the positional needs!"
scottcrib says: "Do it again every chance you get" Ha!
Ras2829 says: That 7-8 on the other side of the board scores two points 15.891% and scores 8 or more points 42.958%. So discard sparingly and let positional needs make the decision for you. Here the dealer is very short and we have a real prospect of attaining position to deal from 69-73. Of course, the 7-8 will score more cribs of two points and fewer of 8 or more when you drop it on your side of the board. Discard averages are much different to own crib than to opponent crib. Only 2/91 discards tossed to the other side of the board average less than four points. To your own crib 43/91 average less than four points. There are such major differences in discard values, pegging potentials, win/loss percentages, and other nuances that cribbage is very much two entirely different games for dealer and non-dealer. Understanding this and making adaptation to these factors is key to success in this wonderful game.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Friday 6:35 AM
I went with the attempt to toss a blank over the board. The 8-7 was my far riskier second choice. My choice of first play is probably not the right choice, but with the 8d in his crib, I will take a chance on a 7 lead.
mfetchCT425
1383 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 6:43 AM
Happy with any cut except an A or 4. Triple 5 hand was my other choice but thought A-4 was less dangerous than 7-8, while still holding 4 points. Cuts of 2,3,7,8,and any face gives us 8. 9 cut gives us 7, 5 cut 10, and 6 cut 12, so we have good odds for average to above average hand. This hand is terrible for pegging usually so I can see the A-4-5-5 doing much better in that regard. I’ll lead the 8 and hope I’m able to dump a 5 on next play.
horus93
1273 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Friday 7:03 AM
-3/+7 this is an offensive position. I still decided to toss this way because it improves on more cuts. Also we still have a long way to go to 121 and a-4 is safer. Furthermore six of the cuts that fail to help a-4-5-5 (777 888) are liable to give dealer a huge crib threatening a double whammy.
horus93 says: Tho you could say the same thing about the 6 cuts that fail to help this keep...
Jazzselke
2570 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Friday 7:10 AM
Too much potential with this hand, have to get to or close to Hole 70. A lot has to happen for the dealer to get to Hole 85.
cribbagepogo says: Like a 24 crib and 10 point hand?
travelingman2019
513 votes

Joined: December 2018

Friday 8:07 AM
I have two thoughts with this situation....one, no 5's get tossed or the 78........if the pone gets the right cut, it means 16-24 crib and they run away and not look back......7445 allows for many cards to build the hand and 8A keeps it to a possible 12 crib for the pone which can be caught based on the position and amount of game left........7445 for me on this one
Jazzselke says: Only 1 four, 2 fives
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Friday 10:55 AM
4-5-5-7(A 8) for me.

With the 4-cut, we have 6 pts showing, out of 13 we would have liked to get this hand.

We would like 7 pegging pts. Not going to happen, but lead the 4 and you may get 3 or 4 of them.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

Friday 11:04 AM
Prefer this. Should get to 70 and leaves oppo least options. Why help him?
Andy (muesli64) says: Was A-8 throw
Gougie00
5703 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 11:35 AM
looking for a 6, but atleast the 4 adds a few points. Ugh! Lead the 4 and ditch the 5s.
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: How will you lead the four, and in what way does a four spot add value?
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: How will you lead the four, and in what way does a four spot add value?
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 3:48 PM
I think we either go for a more aggressive A-4-5-5 (7-8) or 5-5-7-8 (A-4) or a more defensive 4-5-5-7 (A-8):

A-4-5-5: 4pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.63) = -3½pts

5-5-7-8: 4pts - 6pts (Schell: 5.72) = -2pts

4-5-5-7: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = -2¾pts

Potential:

A-4-5-5: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 55, 6666, 9999 + 16xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 8/10/14pts with all cuts.

5-5-7-8: Improves with 2222, 3333, 55, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 7/8/10/12pts with all cuts.

4-5-5-7: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 55, 6666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/8/12/14pts with 3333, 444, 55, 6666 + 16xXs = 29 cuts.

Position:

We need 13pts to reach 3rd street positional hole so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think A-4-5-5 will peg best with lower cards and a 3 card magic eleven.

Summary:

5-5-7-8 has the best starting value by ¾pt over 4-5-5-7 and has the most cuts for improvement with all reaching 7-12pts. 4-5-5-7 has a better maximum at 14pts with 29 cuts to 6-14pts which is a tremendous improvement on 2pts but even so I'll throw the A-4.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:49 PM
At 57-51* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W5 %____W6 %
4-5-5-7___6.22+2.13+(-4.25)=4.10____44.0____41.7
4-5-5-8___6.09+1.65+(-4.16)=3.58____33.0____35.2
A-4-5-5___8.79+1.87+(-7.18)=3.49____46.3____39.3
5-5-7-8___7.83+1.28+(-5.78)=3.33____37.4____35.3

Offense______L5 %____L6 %
4-5-5-7______34.7____40.6
4-5-5-8______33.4____46.4
A-4-5-5______43.6____43.2
5-5-7-8______38.2____47.1

4-5-5-7 is best for expected averages by 0.52pt and is approximately equal for Win %s to A-4-5-5. It is however much lower for Loss %s so I'll select A-8 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Offense:

Lead______________Our Pegging Pts.
7______________________2.02
5______________________1.56
4______________________1.27
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Friday 4:42 PM
This seems to be another time when many players here will be inclined to disagree with Halscrib.

Ras - how do you feel about the Halscrib recommendation today?
Ras2829 says: Hi JCM: If playing the hand HalscribCLX has chosen, playing an offense pegging strategy, the 7 is the correct lead, keeps two consecutive cards, a pair of fives, and encourages dealer to make the count 11 which n/d can pair for 15-4. If playing defense turn the schematic over and lead the four.
JCM says: I get that - thanks! --I was wondering also how you feel about Halscrib's discard recommendation.
JCM says: I just noticed you can adjust size of this "Reply" dialog box. Accidentally adjusted it. That will be quire a help!
Ras2829 says: Hi JCM: I may have a different process for determining strategy than does HalscribCLX; so occasionally we end up with differing retention/discard as is the case today. Often I show off. off., off., or def., def., def. in my posting. That's done as I form an opinion about strategy when looking at the cards, then reassess that in relation to the placement of the pegs/positional factors, and the final assessment is made once observing the starter card. May have chosen offense based on the former two elements, the cut gives me 17-point hand, and then could shift to optimal/defense pegging strategies. That works for me. Have no idea how those HalscribCLX algorithms function. Having said that Hal Mueller is a real genius and I consider Halscrib, REX, and the Cribbage Prof to be the toughest opponents that I face. BTW am in agreement with the cribbot about 90% of the time. Agree with the choice of strategy this day. RAS chose the far greater scoring potential of A-4-5-5 and the need to deal from 3rd street as the most critical elements. Even so, with the cribbot choosing 4-5-5-7, leading the 7 is the equivalent of my holding A-4-5-5 and leading the Ace. In either case the offensive pegging strategy suggests holding the 4-5-5 intact.HAL CPZ for upcoming deal. Does that suggest that our differences are really similarities?
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Friday 5:31 PM
Today's 6-game report:
Defeat.

Won 3, lost 3. In order, my scores were 86,107,121,121,121,120.

Total = 676, far out of the top 3. 18 players today.

Skunked in the 1st game. (Molly) She was raking in 12 and 14 pts over and over, and I was rarely getting over 7 pts. Couldn't keep up. Molly went on to take 1st place with 720. Her hubby(Laurie) took second. Both are over 90 years old. I'm in my 70's :-)

That first hand with Molly. I'm going to suggest that. It's interesting.

2nd game(Gerald, where I reached 107); Gerald took 3rd place. Both those games I started as pone.

That last game(Glenda) where I reached 120, had an interesting discard/pegging situation. Some here may wish to comment.

Score = 114*-114. Both of us needed just 7 pts, but Glenda was pone. This was likely an uphill pegging battle.

My 6 cards: A-4-5-8-10-J. I elected to park my 5 in the crib, where it couldn't be trapped, along with the 8, keeping A-4-10-J.

Cut=K, but would I ever get to count my hand/crib?

Glenda led a Q.

I didn't want to risk runs. In case she also had a miserable hand, I played my A. Count =11. Maybe I could make a 31 out of this.

She paired my A for 2 pts. Count =12.

I dumped my J so she couldn't trap it. Count = 22.

She played a 4. Count = 26.

I paired the 4 for 2 pts and a go. Score now 117*-116.

Glenda led a 5(her last card) and I 15'd it for 3 more pts. Score = 120*-116.

She counted out. She didn't need any pegging pts to do that, though.

Could I have done things better?

Thanks for reading this!
JQT says: Needing to peg 7 as Dealer, with Jack in hand, you still had over 6% chance to Cut a Jack. From A-4-5-8-10-J hand I might have tried Keep (A 4 5 8) or Keep (A 4 5 J) instead. The 5 Card is a good pegging card, and pegging 7 points as Dealer probably occurs almost as often as holding Pone to just 6 holes. Still, I lost a similar game today as Pone needing just 8, as I held (3 7 8 9), and pegging went: 7 8 9 6 etc., and although I pegged the three holes I needed, the Dealer (who was even closer to Victory) pegged out FIRST and WON. ANd so I lost two out of three games, while you appeared to at least win 50% of yours!
Goo
78 votes

Joined: November 2019

 
 
 
Friday 7:28 PM
Goo
78 votes

Joined: November 2019

 
 
 
Friday 7:28 PM
The