November 14, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
0-0*  ?
29%
22%
16%
15%
7%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 186
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 3:36 AM
For me it was either 4-8 or 6-8 to opponent's crib. I liked holding A-2-2-6 as it totals a magic "11". Going with my first choice, 6-8. Hal may consider 6-8 too risky even though first hand as non-dealer is offense strategy.
mrob2199
1408 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 3:50 AM
Obviously not a powerhouse hand to begin the game here-so let’s try to keep the score down and make up points later-the A-2-4-8 should peg reasonably well with the 4 lead-many times we will get a 9 or picture card response-the 2-6 discard should limit the dealers crib,especially with a 10 cut
mfetchCT425 says: Hey Rob, Phil got back to me. He has about 25 right now for his tournament, but it’s early. Expecting about 60-70 players. I’ll shoot you an email in case you don’t see this.
Goo says: Where Is Where is it?
RubyTuesday
897 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 4:03 AM
Urrggh. I thought that A 8 was the least helpful thing to put in dealer’s crib
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 4:08 AM
Even this early, my indigestion cannot handle throwing 6-8 in dealers crib. Visions of the very frequent dealer throw of 8-7 dance in my head. Throw the safer 2-6, keep 2 points. Lots of cribbage to be played. Lead the 4.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:10 AM
6-8 would be possibly one of those fill in one card and a cut that could be costly. Lets hope for one of those eleven cuts for six and peg defensively. Four lead. dec
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 5:20 AM
With a bad hand do not think it’s worth throwing dangerous cards like 6-8 to opponent’s crib even on first deal as pone. This hold is helped by every cut, albeit many cuts only provide slight help. . We have 3 low cards that could help with some pegging. I would lead the 4.
Goo says: Thank you for telling lead.
scottcrib
1608 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 5:42 AM
My puzzle today. Tossing 6-8 was out of the question. Tossing A-8 was considered, but that leaves me with no help from X cuts. Tossing 2-4 was rejected for the same reason and they are too close together for my comfort. Therefore, 2-6 it is. This keeps a sum of 5 for the potential X cut, keeps 2 points in my hand, improves with every cut, pegs pretty well, and tosses mostly unhelpful 2-6 to the crib. That's a win for me with these options on the first hand.
scottcrib says: Something I learned at a tournament this past weekend: any hand/crib with a 5 or cards that add up to 5 is guaranteed at least 2 points.
Ras2829 says: Hi scottcrib: This was a fine puzzle. Thought so when I gave it thumbs-up as moderator. It is even more apparent on display today. Only 3% chose the 4 cards with the greater combined value.
scottcrib says: Thanks Ras2829!
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 6:14 AM
Agree with the consensus of commentators. However, don't always be comfortable with a 26 throw. The popular 78 toss by the opponent can turn into 14 or 16 points.
scottcrib says: Excellent point! I often throw 7-8 myself.
Goo says: Me too scott
Ras2829 says: BTW the 7-8 is most frequent discard made by dealer, and three of the other ten most frequent are two mid-cards. If you would like to know the ten most frequent discards made by dealer to own crib, their averages, and rankings e-mail raswino29@outlook.com.
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 6:22 AM
2-6 from me also.
I'll lead the 4 from my 4-A combo.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 6:25 AM
Nothing obvious here. I'll go wide. Lead the 2.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 6:56 AM
Choosing an offense strategy, it's the A-6 discard. Offensive pegging is considerably better than it is with A-8 discard. True that A-8 has the lower crib value by 1/4 point though drops the offensive pegging values by 3/4. The 2-2-4-8 "sweet sixteen" has that slight edge in pegging. Am not thrilled by any of the discard choices. Eliminated 6-8 discard as it scores nearly 6 points on the other side of the board, and the 4-6 scores more than five points. Will lead the 4 and take any pegs offered. If dealer holding 5-X-X-X or similar, the 4 lead forces the five off the play, dealer advances the count with a 10 spot to 14, n/d drops the 8 for 22, dealer drops the playable 5 for count of 27, and n/d pegging strategy is complete with the back-to-back deuces for 31-4. It's a high percentage trap and allows us to move down the board six holes instead of a paltry 2-3. That's my story and I'm sticking to it!
Ras2829 says: BTW you can play this hand and score 4 pegs another way. If you are playing a cagy player, the 8 lead will often cause them to drop that 5 spot for count of 13, n/d scores 15-2 with a deuce, dealer advances the count to 25, n/d responds with the 4 for count of 29, a "go", and plays the deuce for 31-2. So n/d picks up two pegs early and two in closing the count at 31.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 7:12 AM
I decided to make the offensive toss this early in the game.
Goo says: What would defensive toss be?
horus93 says: probably a-8. On reflection I don't think my keep is as good as my gut thought it was, probably wrong oday
Ras2829 says: Hi Goo; Among these six cards, there is not a defensive choice. Of these 6 the A-8 is the lowest scoring at 4.843 (1,456) 40/91. That means there are 39 discards that score less to opponent crib than A-8. None of those combinations are in this hand. If you divide the 91 discards into three pages, the A-8 would be a page 2 discard. The 6-8 and 4-6 would be on page 3. None would make page 1.
Ras2829 says: And the A-8 scores 8 or more points 25.972% of the time. On the other end of the scale the A-8 scores 0-2 27.266%. That leaves 46.762% to score 3-7 points.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 7:36 AM
Keep middle cards.
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 8:53 AM
Kept mix of cards that increases with every cut. Hopefully can peg a few
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 9:27 AM
Toss (A 8) or Toss (4 8) I suppose. (At least in Blackjack you can ask for a New Dealer!)
JQT says: This hand, along with a few others that contain (2 2 8), give us what I often call "5 Card Cut Insurance." If the Dealer gets a 5 Card Cut, it often will boost both Hand and Crib and leave us behind as Pone. But with a hand that works well with a 5 Card Cut, Then we do well to insulate or insure ourselves against this damage. It often pays to look for ideas and/or themes such as this when there seems to be no good basis for judging our discard decision. Think "What If" and think "Worst Case Scenario" and then try to find something or some reason with which to base your discarding decision upon, if you can.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Thursday 9:39 AM
Looking forward to see the numbers.
UCCF
1521 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 11:25 AM
I wanted to keep 2-2-A together, which left toss either 4-8, 4-6, or 6-8. Of those 3, 4-8 seemed the least likely to blow up in my face. Plus 6-2-2-A might peg well against a pone with X-X-X-5 (6-X-A-X-2-2 (4)).
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 11:56 AM
I went for the (6 8) discard. Start of game, and every cut helps this A-2-2-4 keep.
JCM says: After the 8 cut, we have only 6 pts. Would like 10, if possible. I would lead the 4. Any X or 9 response can be answered with a 15-2. Save the pair of 2s for the end.
Ras2829 says: So often when I hold 4 small cards, the five is cut. How does that help?
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 1:01 PM
Since I did not want to get too deep of a hole at the start of the game, 4-6 and 6-8 were not the options for discard. I also wanted a decent spread of ranks within the hand. 4-8 is my choice only because we have to discard BEFORE the starter card is revealed. I see no advantage to a 4-card eleven but I will try to save the 2's until the end and lead the Ace.
Ras2829 says: Hi JRCeagle78: Four card elevens work very well for non-dealer. Lead the A as you suggest (leading the 6 will also work), dealer plays a X on either offering most of the time if holding 5-X-X-X or X-X-X-X, n/d plays the six for count of 17, dealer makes count 27, n/d in high percentage trap gets 31-4 with the back to back deuces. Four card elevens work nicely for dealer or non-dealer.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 2:43 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs___Crib__Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-2-4-8___4.61+2.15+(-4.44)=2.32____20.6____20.6
A-2-2-6___4.87+1.98+(-4.55)=2.30____37.5____30.7
2-2-4-6___5.09+1.48+(-4.37)=2.20____20.3____20.1
A-2-2-4___5.43+2.11+(-5.38)=2.16____23.3____20.7
A-2S-4-8__4.83+1.70+(-4.57)=1.96____20.3____20.1

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-2-4-8______36.7____52.5
A-2-2-6______37.9____43.9
2-2-4-6______36.9____52.9
A-2-2-4______40.2____53.6
A-2S-4-8_____37.6____53.5

2-2-4-8 is slightly best for expected averages over A-2-2-6 by 0.02pt. As it's the beginning of the game I'll decide on expected averages and select A-6 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead the 8 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
8__________________2.12
4__________________1.66
2__________________1.53
Coeurdelion says: I believe there may be an error in the look up tables for A-2-2-6 and that the Win/Loss %s should be in line with the other hands.