November 8, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by hillchem
99-89*  ?
26%
23%
17%
16%
10%
5%
0%
Total votes: 178
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:24 AM
We're ahead of dealer on the board so let's not give him any help. With the starter, we have 10 points. Strategy is defense or at least optimal, taking safe pegs.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:25 AM
Both Toss (6 J) and Toss (8 J) should be very defensive, and either should be okay.

Not sure whether to lead the 8s or 5s as I am afraid of a 7 Card response to an 8 Card lead.

I guess I'll lead the 5s and hope for the best.
JQT says: Dealer is only half a dozen points shy of attaining position, thus if we discard Toss (6 8) or a single 5 Card, the Dealer could be back in winning position with any of several dangerous discards, even before the Cut Card is flipped over. And in Cribbage, we never want to force ourselves to have to win a game more than once!
JQT says: In summary, from this most fortunate and favorable position of (99-89*), we have already virtually won this game; that is, unless we decide to throw away our distinct advantage with a dangerous and reckless discard. This could happen after something as seemingly innocuous as Toss (6 8), and most notably probably will happen after Toss (8 8), which almost begs our Opponent to strip us of a Victory already won! Don't throw away your hard-won victories!
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:29 AM
One of the reasons did not keep the pairs. Lead the eight dump the five next play. I think we are looking good here. dec
mrob2199
1434 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 3:55 AM
We are already in great position here-no cut is going to put us out so it’s 100 percent defense here with dealer 32 out-we have to be very careful with the pegging here-I would lead the 5 and play off everything after that-the 6 or 8 lead could get ugly if the 6 were matched or the 8 was fifteened-we can afford to give up 3 to 4 pegs here but not 7 or 8-the crib looks pretty safe with the 8-jK combo going
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 4:01 AM
Already ahead of my par hole, so more concerned with how many points the Dealer scores than how many I score. I agree with Rosemarie about making an unhelpful discard, but J-8 seems a lot less helpful than 6-8.

5c lead.
mfetchCT425
1398 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 4:53 AM
Already in good position so like the defensive throw of 6-J. Might be a good time to lead a 5 here to stay out of major pegging trouble if the 8 lead is 15d.
mrob2199 says: Mike I think both are holds could get crushed in pegging under the right circumstances -I would definitely lead the 5 instead of the 8 here
mfetchCT425 says: Yes agree. If the 5 lead is 15d, would you play the 2nd 5 for 20, or take a chance and make the count 23 with the 8, knowing we have two 8s out of circulation?
mrob2199 says: Good question mike-seeing that we are in a defensive mode I would dump the 2nd five to make it 20-if being offensive the 8 is definitely the right play to make it 23
wasa
3017 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Friday 5:03 AM
Defence all the way
zeke76
1395 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Friday 5:13 AM
Compromised btw defense and offense.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Friday 6:41 AM
This is not one of the best hands for pegging, so it clearly calls for defense. The 6-J was the most defensive toss especially with half of the 5's and 8's out of the reach of the discarded 6c.

The 5's could definitely pose some problems during the play of the hand, so I will throw caution to the wind and lead one of them. If the dealer doesn't drop an X card it can be somewhat revealing to his strategy.
JRCeagle78 says: For some reason, the options at the top say I tossed the J-6, but the comment section says I tossed 8-8
JRCeagle78 says: For some reason, the options at the top say I tossed the J-6, but the comment section says I tossed 8-8
Hillchem
2911 votes

Joined: April 2015
 
 
 
Friday 8:06 AM
This is my best recollection of a game from grassroots that was ripped from my win column by a perfect storm of an unfortunate deal, cut, and pegging right here.

My memory is slightly fuzzy around every single detail, but I think these were the cards that were dealt and the score was roughly what is shown.

If I remember correctly, I started with a 5 to try to avoid getting myself stuck. Unfortunately, dealer had something like 5-8-9-10. By the time he pegged his 7 points, he was already close to position.

The cut was a 9 or a 10, and although the crib was not huge, he managed to win on my deal.

I really wish I had written this one down because some of this might be inaccurate. All I know is that as, mrob and JRCeagle are concerned about, the pegging did go sideways, contributing to a loss.
JQT says: You can do all the correct things in Cribbage (or in Life, for that matter) and still get thrashed about and wrecked. As Pone for example, with Keep (3 3 4 4), unbeknownst to us, we could face a Dealer with the same exact hand, and get out-pegged Twelve-to-Twenty-Nine! Dealer has all the power in Cribbage, and if you are a Dealer anywhere near Fourth Street, you are in a game that possibly you can win.
Hillchem says: Wow, that would be quite the pegging bonanza! Cribbage sure is a fickle game. Over the long run, skill tends to prevail, but even stretches of 2 or 3 hundred games can go very well or very poorly.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Friday 8:37 AM
Bird hand without putting anything in the dealer's bush.
dgergens says: Bird in the hand...
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Friday 8:38 AM
At 99-89* we want 22 pts to go out. This means at least 6+ pts needed this hand. This will leave us needing 16 or fewer pts next hand when we are dealer.

For me I therefore hold J-5-5(guaranteed 6 pts, possibly up to 12 or 13). For me, the discard choice becomes either discarding (8 8) or (6 8)

(8 8) - about 6.4 pts on average in Opp. crib
(6 8) - about 6.8 pts on average.

The "safe" (J 8) averages about 4.7 pts in Opp. crib. About 1.7 pts less than (6 8), but starts with only holding 2 pts, instead of 6.

Some, I think, will disagree with me, but that 1.7 pts is not enough to convince me to hold 5-5-6-8.

I go for 5-5-8-J(6 8)

We're in good position. Play defensively. Lead a 5, avoid pairing and runs.
james500 says: Hi John, hope life's treating you well. For what it's worth, my view is that we cannot win the game on this hand, but we could very well lose it if we play/discard unwisely. We have this hand, hand+box as Dealer in the next hand, (maybe even 1st show in the hand subsequent to that), to score our 22 which seems eminently do-able. We just need to do everything within our power to prevent our opponent scoring 32 with this hand+box, and the next hand. To this end, the denial of an average 1.7 points seems sensible.
james500 says: Hi John, hope life's treating you well. For what it's worth, my view is that we cannot win the game on this hand, but we could very well lose it if we play/discard unwisely. We have this hand, hand+box as Dealer in the next hand, (maybe even 1st show in the hand subsequent to that), to score our 22 which seems eminently do-able. We just need to do everything within our power to prevent our opponent scoring 32 with this hand+box, and the next hand. To this end, the denial of an average 1.7 points seems sensible.
JCM says: You could be right. Dealer may make 18 pts this hand, with a 6 pt crib. But that means he should need 14 pts next hand as pone. Not too likely. - - I just like holding 6 pts, because it's what we really want to make this hand.(With the cut we make 10 pts. Means we need only 12 pts next hand as dealer.)- - BTW I just noticed I reversed the discard values. (8 8) averages 6.8 pts, and (6 8) averages 6.4 pts. Thanks for commenting! In a way, I hope you're right. (Ask me to explain that some time.)
JCM says: You could be right. Dealer may make 18 pts this hand, with a 6 pt crib. But that means he should need 14 pts next hand as pone. Not too likely. - - I just like holding 6 pts, because it's what we really want to make this hand.(With the cut we make 10 pts. Means we need only 12 pts next hand as dealer.)- - BTW I just noticed I reversed the discard values. (8 8) averages 6.8 pts, and (6 8) averages 6.4 pts. Thanks for commenting! In a way, I hope you're right. (Ask me to explain that some time.)
JQT says: Yes, JCM, james500 offers some very valuable advice, so let me try to add to it: In your very first paragraph way up above, you state things a little bit less optimistically than what is often the case. As you know, if we get to show our Hand as Dealer, we also get to show our Crib; and then, if we got this far, let's remember that very often we'll also get to then produce our First Hand Show as the Next Non-Dealer. In Cribbage, these collectively are known as our "Three Counts" and they tend to average about Twenty-Six Holes Total, hence Twenty-Six Theory. Therefore, if we play strong DEFENSE today, we *already* have sufficient points coming our way to win, even if we score NOTHING AT ALL here as Pone, of course as long as we defend WELL.
JQT says: Yes, JCM, james500 offers some very valuable advice, so let me try to add to it: In your very first paragraph way up above, you state things a little bit less optimistically than what is often the case. As you know, if we get to show our Hand as Dealer, we also get to show our Crib; and then, if we got this far, let's remember that very often we'll also get to then produce our First Hand Show as the Next Non-Dealer. In Cribbage, these collectively are known as our "Three Counts" and they tend to average about Twenty-Six Holes Total, hence Twenty-Six Theory. Therefore, if we play strong DEFENSE today, we *already* have sufficient points coming our way to win, even if we score NOTHING AT ALL here as Pone, of course as long as we defend WELL.
JCM says: Hi James and JQT - you two are starting to convince me. The 3 counts coming should indeed provide sufficient points to win. Maybe 5-5-8-8(J 6) makes better sense after all.
JCM says: Hi James and JQT - you two are starting to convince me. The 3 counts coming should indeed provide sufficient points to win. Maybe 5-5-8-8(J 6) makes better sense after all.
JQT says: Both Toss (6 J) and Toss (8 J) should do the job quite well today, and these will naturally be the end result after you calculate that, as Pone at (99-89*), we really don't require any points whatsoever during this particular deal, as long as we adequately DEFEND our substantial lead.
JQT says: Both Toss (6 J) and Toss (8 J) should do the job quite well today, and these will naturally be the end result after you calculate that, as Pone at (99-89*), we really don't require any points whatsoever during this particular deal, as long as we adequately DEFEND our substantial lead.
scottcrib
1635 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Friday 10:41 AM
With all 4 of the 7s and all 4 of the 9s still in the deck, I can't see tossing 6-8. I'm guaranteed 4 and have a really good chance of cutting an X for 8pts. After that, I'm statistically in very good shape.
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 11:03 AM
trying to give the dealer a bagel.
cribbagepogo
3251 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 12:20 PM
Feel the 6/8 no saver than pair of 8's. Bite the bullet and take what I can get.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Friday 1:52 PM
This seemed safest to me. Lead a five.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 2:02 PM
I think the Defensive throw will be 6-J and 6-8 and 8-8 for Offense throws.

5-5-8-8: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.57) = -½pt

5-5-8-J: 6pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = +½pt

5-5-6-J: 6pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 6.82) = -¾pt

Potential:

5-5-8-8: Improves with 2222, 55, 7777, 88 + 15xXs = 27 cuts = 58.7% up to 8/10/12pts with all cuts.

5-5-8-J: Improves with 2222, 55, 7777, 88 + 15xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 10/12/14pts with 2222, 55 + 15xXs = 21 cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

5-5-6-J: Improves with 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 10/12/14/16pts with 4444, 55, 7777 + 15xXs = 25 cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Position:

We're already 3pts past positional hole and ahead so can play Safe.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 5-5-8-8 will peg best.

Summary:

5-5-8-J has the best starting value has a reasonable number of cuts for improvement and 21 for 10-14pts. Also it has the benefit of the nob potential and there will be some negative delta as we hold another 8. 5-5-6-J has more cuts for improvement and a better maximum with 25 cuts for 10-16pts but it starts with 1¼pts less so I'll throw 6-8D.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 2:04 PM
At 99-89* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
5-5-8-J___8.65+(-3.15)+(-5.11)=0.39_____0.1_____63.7
5-5-6-J___9.74+(-3.61)+(-6.03)=0.10_____0.7_____64.0
5-5-8-8___6.78+(-3.50)+(-4.15)=(-0.87)__0.0_____56.1
5-5-6-8___6.22+(-3.72)+(-4.18)=(-1.68)__4.8_____56.9

Defense______L1 %____L2 %
5-5-8-J_______1.0_____17.3
5-5-6-J_______1.7_____21.1
5-5-8-8_______0.2_____11.9
5-5-6-8_______0.2_____13.6

5-5-8-J is best for expected averages by 0.29pt and although 5-5-6-J is slightly better for Win %s it is appreciably worse for Loss %s. 5-5-6-8 is 2.07pts lower for expected averages but has good Win %s and low Loss %s. But even so I'll select 6-8 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead the J and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
J__________________(-2.43)
5__________________(-2.66)
8__________________(-2.67)
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Friday 4:36 PM
I originally went with the (6 8) discard. James and JQT talked me into thinking that the (6 J) discard is better, seeing that we have 3 counts to see us over the finish line.

Both computer programs say (6 8) is the best discard.

James and JQT - do you still stick with the (J 6) discard?
JQT says: Look at the loss rates: Toss (6 8) is nearly 50% higher loss rate in two deals as Toss (6 J), and Toss (8 8) is almost 100% higher! There is no urgent need therefore to incur this higher risk. The program makes a tradeoff between defense and offense which it must do, but I am not comfortable with that threshold in a game that already seems in our favor. It's all about the level of risk, of course, like playing Russian Roulette with two bullets instead of one, but for more money! Is that winning or losing? I'll allow RAS to be the arbiter.
JQT says: Look at the loss rates: Toss (6 8) is nearly 50% higher loss rate in two deals as Toss (6 J), and Toss (8 8) is almost 100% higher! There is no urgent need therefore to incur this higher risk. The program makes a tradeoff between defense and offense which it must do, but I am not comfortable with that threshold in a game that already seems in our favor. It's all about the level of risk, of course, like playing Russian Roulette with two bullets instead of one, but for more money! Is that winning or losing? I'll allow RAS to be the arbiter.
Coeurdelion says: The above is just my analysis as a human! For good or ill 8-)
Coeurdelion says: The above is just my analysis as a human! For good or ill 8-)
JCM says: Sorry, Coeurdelion - all this time I thought the results you post were computer-generated. I stand corrected :-)
JCM says: Sorry, Coeurdelion - all this time I thought the results you post were computer-generated. I stand corrected :-)
JCM says: Hi JQT - Seems there are times when the better crib players here will disagree with Halscrib. Is this one of those times?
JCM says: Hi JQT - Seems there are times when the better crib players here will disagree with Halscrib. Is this one of those times?
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Friday 4:53 PM
Today's 6-game report.

I only won 3 games today. Lost 3. But I didn't lose by terribly much.

In order, my 6 scores were 115,119,121,119,121 and 121. Total = 716 out of 726 possible.

I came second. First was a perfect 726. So my win rate drops slightly, but my "podium finish" rate(in top 3) increases a bit.

That first game - where I scored 115 - I got there following the positional play discussed on this site. My Opp.(Molly) was getting fantastic 12, and 14-pt hands pretty consistently and had quite a lead. I just kept playing according to the target holes. At the end it was 99-111*. I kept the largest hand I could manage(A-2-3-3, good peggers) and the cut was an X-value. I pegged 4 pts and scored the 12 from my hand to reach 115.

22 players today.

So - for both of the 1st 2 Fridays in Nov, I reached 2nd place, with 22-24 players. Not unhappy with that.

The way they determine winners, you can lose games, but provided you don't lose them by too much, you can still get into the top 3.
JCM says: Oh - maybe not that important, but I started 5 of those 6 games as pone. I won the only game I started as dealer.
JCM says: Oh - maybe not that important, but I started 5 of those 6 games as pone. I won the only game I started as dealer.
JCM says: Actually, only 20 players today, not 22. Mea culpa.
JCM says: Actually, only 20 players today, not 22. Mea culpa.
jitwit
27 votes

Joined: October 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 1:39 AM
I went 5-5-8-8 which is perhaps too conservative skimming through the other comments.