October 19, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Gougie00
0-0*  ?
33%
29%
8%
7%
4%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 193
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:06 AM
Believed that tossing the pair of six's was safer than tossing 5-6 to opponent with today's hand. We have sixteen points with the cut of a 6 and opponent has six points in his crib. Quite a coincidence that a six turns up as the starter.
mrob2199
1434 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 3:17 AM
Completely agree with Rosemarie here-the 5-6 is potentially much more dangerous-and keeping the double 5 gives us 12 instead of 10 with any picture cut
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:27 AM
16 faces and only five of the 6/9 available . We are non dealer here so start with the 8-2 and hope to increase from twelve to seventeen. Numbers lead the six. dec
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 3:56 AM
All of the above.
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:58 AM
Concerned about the value of their crib, but what will be will be. 6 lead.
james500 says: https://www.reddit.com/r/Cribbage/comments/dk48rd/the_most_frequently_occurring_hand_on_daily/
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 4:56 AM
With my Monte Carlo program, that plays the whole hand - total points from play and show, throwing any 5-6 combo gets on average 15.2 points. Second best is any pair of 6s for an average of 14.9. Almost too close to call.
james500 says: Hi, hope all's well. I'm interested in hearing more about this program you mention. From your username, I take it that it's one you've created yourself?
JQT says: A better measure I think would be how far does the algorithm get you to move RELATIVE to your opponent. Also, many board situations exist in which POSITION is more important than POINTS, so ideally it should perform this calculation as well. Make it all self-learning, and you're off to the races!
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:04 AM
Aside from Toss (6 7), Toss (6 6) may be the safest discard we have today.

Throwing a 5 Card might tidy things up on 'our side' of the board, but could wreak havoc and make our situation much worse 'over the board.'

Now, do we dare lead a 5 Card to start a game and from such a hand? I often do!

Leading a 5 Card can *only* cost us at most an immediate Two Points, and it's often worth the price of admission paid to learn the most about the composition of the Dealer's Hand.
mfetchCT425
1398 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 5:44 AM
Agree with those above with this hold. Double run holding the two 5s makes the most sense to me. There is no balking cards we can toss to opponent’s crib, but I think 6-6 is safer than 5-6, and I would guess in the same ball park as 6-7. I would lead the 7 and look to dump a 5 on next play.
mfetchCT425 says: Actually with all the 6s accounted for, I would lead the 6. The 5 lead is tempting though.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 5:49 AM
(6h 6d) for me. Discard both red 6s so that with what remains a fake flush is possible.

(6d 6c) could achieve that same effect.

JQT's thought on leading 5c is intriguing.
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:55 AM
Toss 6-6?
glmccuskey
4100 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 6:07 AM
Looks unanimous. I’ll lead the seven and peg aggressively from there.
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 6:39 AM
Got to toss 6-6. I'll get rid of those with a blush. It's off., off., off since opening n/d. Been a very busy week as have been hosting the I-5 North Toutle Rest Area all week. Baked 1,200 cookies to go with coffee, tea, or hot chocolate. All volunteer project with donated supplies. no charge though we can accept donations. If traveling the I-5 corridor this past week, you just might have sampled some of those home-made cookies. Logan Hill Grange does this 3 weeks in the year during months of October, February, and March. More later!
Ras2829 says: If choosing an offense strategy as n/d of opening hand, lead from the top of the hand. Based on scant empirical evidence, the lead of the five is the second best offensive lead. If in another position and choosing a defense pegging strategy, lead the 6.
Ras2829 says: If one looks at the lower and the upper end of the scales regarding 5-6 and 6-6 discards, the 6-6 emerges as much safer. The 5-6 to opponent scores two points 4.523% and 6-6 scores two points 18.368%. The 5-6 scores 8 or more points 54.161% while 6-6 does that 41.528%. So then 6-6 scores two points 4 times as frequently as does the 5-6 and the 5-6 scores 30% more cribs of 8 or more points. The averages reflect these major differences with 5-6 at 6.865 with 6-6 half point off that pace at 6.304.
cribbagepogo
3251 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 8:19 AM
Academic which sixes to dump. That skews the percentages above a bit. Wish I was there to donate my oatmeal raisin cookies or chocolate chips. (I'd probably eat the CC cookies first.)
Cribsurfer
766 votes

Joined: September 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 8:31 AM
Well I guess the dealer's gonna get at least 6 in their crib after the cut. Figured first hand I want to keep my 5's together and start with the most points I can.
Hillchem
2911 votes

Joined: April 2015
 
 
 
Saturday 9:08 AM
I’ve know where every 6 is, so I’d lead the 6 I still have. If dealer plays a 9, I’d play a 5 to make it 20.
Hillchem says: Almost every combination of these cards has been chosen today!
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 2:32 PM
I don't see any real alternative to throwing 6-6 and keeping 8pts. The next best, which I wouldn't be keen on, would be 5-6 (unsuited). I'll compare the two:

5-5-6-7: 8pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.08) = +1¼pts

5-6-6-7: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.47) = +½pt

Potential:

5-5-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 6, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17pts with 3333, 4444, 55, 6, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 34 cuts.

5C-6-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 6, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/15/16pts with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 6, 777, 8888, 9999 = 26 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Both should peg well playing Offense.

Summary:

5-5-6-7 has a starting value ¾pt more and although it has the same number of cuts for improvement it has more cuts for a good to very good hand (34 vs. 26). So I'll throw 6-6.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:47 PM
At 0*-0 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
5-5-6-7___12.04+1.15+(-6.04)=7.15____36.3____28.7
5C-6-6-7__11.63+1.65+(-6.83)=6.45____36.4____27.5

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
5-5-6-7______43.8____48.1
5C-6-6-7_____45.4____49.4

5-5-6-7 is better for expected averages by 0.70pt and is better for Win %s and Loss %s so I'll select 6-6 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
7_____________________1.23
5_____________________1.17
6_____________________0.98