October 17, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
47%
32%
13%
4%
2%
0%
Total votes: 193
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:12 AM
Five / King CRIB: Come to Papa!
JQT says: Rather than look for a reason to retain the 3-4-5 RUN, I prefer to look for reasons to Toss (5 X) and bust up such a RUN. Here we get to hold onto BOTH a two-card Magic Eleven in the form of (3 8), and a fabulous four-card Sweet 'Sizzle-teen.' Therefore, try to play the Trey or the 8 Cards first. Even on a Ten Card "T" Lead, we could reply with either the Trey or the 8 Card here, with both Trey and 4 Card serving as back-up in order to parry in the latter case.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:21 AM
I chose the small run. After all, its submitted by Ras - who knows for sure?
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:39 AM
I consider myself a pegger first so.. seeing as first dealer there can be a strat to hold opponent back. I will try to use the eleven count in pegging and hope to load up in the crib. Although counting large hands can be more enjoyable. Defense. dec
RubyTuesday
913 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Thursday 4:00 AM
i wasn’t sure whether to throw AK or A8, but see now that there are reasons not to have clung onto the run. I’m looking forward to seeing more comments.
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 4:25 AM
Quite content to keep 3-4-5-K/8 for five points. Maybe I'm too easily pleased?

With all the sixes and sevens still unaccounted for, A-8 should do better than an A-K discard with a 4 and a 5 out of circulation.

Only the cut of a 9 isn't immediately beneficial to my hand. Provides a two-card sequence in the crib though, which may or may not become points.

Is there a way to trap a 5 card with my 3-4 in the pegging?
dgergens says: Hi James. I responded in my box.
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Thursday 5:12 AM
I prefer to keep a run that includes a 15 count.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Thursday 5:32 AM
This site has definitely taught me not to be seduced by runs. Though Liam has 3-4-5-K and this keep worth the same for expected averages this should peg better. I'd play cautious offense to the cut.
mfetchCT425
1398 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 6:11 AM
Like keeping the touching cards together here with A-8 in my crib vs A-K. Thought about 5-K toss, but for me, this destroys hand potential too much in this case. Will retain points in hand with chances for 8/10/12 with the right cut.
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 6:23 AM
Keep the small run and hope for some help. Peg if possible.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 6:41 AM
Like the run for a possible 12 and prefer A8 over AK in the crib. Understand the pegging value of A348 and better crib potential, but IMO giving up too much with only a 2 or a 3 yielding as much as 8 points in the hand.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 7:10 AM
I meant to keep the 3-4-5-K but made a mistake in my selection. I wanted to keep the run and at the same time have the King available as a contrasting card to the pone's play. I do think that 3-4-5-8 has better possibilities for pegging.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Thursday 7:28 AM
I've learned a lot on this site too. I was on the fence about gambling a few points for the potential of 15 in the crib. But when I add pegging to the consideration, this seemed best to me. We're playing to expected averages not maximum for-sure points.
james500 says: Hiya "D", hope all's good with you. Maybe I've misunderstood your post, and maybe I'm talking nonsense here, but to your point about expected averages, I don't know what the charts and tables say, but I reckon that a five point hand + (avg value of either A-8 or A-K) must have a combined value greater than a two point hand + (avg value of K-5). Or put another way, I think that the value of (K-5) < the value of (A-8)+3.1 or (A-K) +3.1 (+3 would only draw level). Whether pegging can make up the difference, I'm not sure.
dgergens says: Hi James. I don't know what the tables say either, nor do I play at the level in which RAS and JQT analyze the possible options. I've said before, I think Cribbage is a bit like chess insofar as over time you memorize board configurations or hands and just 'know' what the best move to make is, based on history and experience. This site certainly expands my knowledge of what is a good discard or good hand, like the other day we learned what a potentially 'powerful' hand 2,3,3,3 is. I play this site with just the limited mental facalties I have, without any research ahead of time, and if I match any one my benchmark players, I am happy. I matched JQT today, so I didn't bother to investigate, but since you raised the question, I took a look at Liam Brown site. As I suspected, the crib should make up for the hand points given up. And while the K,5 discard is the 'hail mary' hand, A,8 & K,5 discards have the exact same final expected average of 11.6. So, w/o seeing these numbers, turns out my sense of things was right (this time), because 1) K,5 discard had the max potential of 33 and A,8 had max of 25, and 2) because I believe I can peg better with A,3,4,8 (low cards, magic 11, things learned in this forum). To your point about the HAND from K,5 discard being less that the other two options, you are correct. But you have to look at the HAND + CRIB holistically (again learned right here).
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 7:34 AM
Go for the double run.
Cribsurfer
766 votes

Joined: September 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 8:36 AM
My first thought was 5-K but I ultimately went with A-K. Have the defensive eleven and all cuts will give me more points I believe the ace will not help my hand but will help the crib.
Cribsurfer says: Ah the 9 won’t help me I see it now
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Thursday 9:16 AM
(A 8) for me. Although other choices like (K 5) or (K A) seem close.

I prefer (A 8) because it needs a 6 to help it and all four 6s are still out there. By contrast, if I discarded (K A), it needs a 4 to help it, but there only three 4s out there to do that job.

I'm partial to keeping the run, although (K 5) has some merit - potential very large crib with that, and perhaps better pegging.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 11:24 AM
four possible discards. K-5 sacrifices 1 point. Of the other three possible discards, A-8 has
d the best chance of hitting something.
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014
 
 
 
Thursday 11:31 AM
I'm not going to throw away points at the start of the game, so I hold 3-4-5-8, which gives me the potential of 14 points.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 3:17 PM
Several possibilities - 3-4-5-8 (A-K), 3-4-5-K (A-8), A-3-4-8 (5-K) and A-4-5-K (3-8):

3-4-5-8: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.41) = 8½pts

3-4-5-K: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = 8¾pts

A-3-4-8: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 8½pts

A-4-5-K: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.92) = 8pts

Potential:

3-4-5-8: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/9/10/12/14pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 = 24 cuts.

3-4-5-K: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, KKK = 20 cuts.

A-3-4-8: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/8pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 7777, 888 = 20 cuts.

A-4-5-K: Improves with AAA, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 333, 444, 555, 6666 + 15xXs = 31 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer I'll play Defense. Positional hole is 8pts but I'll try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

All these hands will peg well but A-3-4-8, I think, will peg best.

Summary:

3-4-5-8 starts with ¼pt less than 3-4-5-K but has a better maximum at 14pts and 24 cuts for 8-14pts. It also should peg reasonably playing Defense. So I'll throw the A-K.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:19 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-3-4-8___4.93+(-1.89)+6.57=9.61____35.4____47.5
3-4-5-K___7.98+(-2.17)+3.73=9.54____36.1____49.0
3-4-5-8___8.15+(-2.20)+3.09=9.04____35.8____48.1
A-4-5-K___7.15+(-1.91)+3.79=9.03____34.8____47.8

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-3-4-8______28.4____27.1
3-4-5-K______26.9____25.5
3-4-5-8______27.8____26.4
A-4-5-K______27.0____26.4

A-3-4-8 is best for expected averages by 0.07pt over 3-4-5-K but 3-4-5-K is slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s. However as it's the beginning of the game I'll decide on expected averages and select 5-K to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
JQT says: Prime RUN candidates as Dealer in Cribbage that I always look to 'bust up' include just about *any* instance that includes a 5 Card. It's certainly not true that it *always* makes sense to break up such a RUN, but it's always worth some critical analysis. Double RUNs are excellent in Cribbage: but with 3-4-5, we don't yet have a Double RUN, we have a *possible* Double RUN. Beware whenever you start going down that thought process of "going for" something in Cribbage, because that literally means that you don't yet have it! Compare and contrast the less-than-20% chance of "going for and getting" that Double RUN, as opposed to the fact that we *already do have* the 100% ability to perform Toss (5 K) and get a 5 Card into our Crib! As for those who view 'breaking up' the 3-4-5 RUN as a "sacrifice"; I don't see it that way, except maybe in an initial 'static' point analysis; but we KNOW that the Cut Card shall *always* change this, and that our retained hand will eventually tend toward its Expected Value, and not remain at its 'static' total, over time. The way I believe we should analyze such an arrangement therefore is that the reduction in Hand Points is nearly instantly 'made up for' by the added Crib Value of the Toss (5 K) discard, and thus we should get to retain the increased Pegging Value (whether Offensively or Defensively) of the Keep (A 3 4 8) hand virtually "for free" today after we Toss (5 K). Just as in Chess, it's not really a "sacrifice" if it leads to either certain parity or especially when it leads to an actual gain.
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 11:55 PM
Well - well JQT was first on with the 5-K discard. HalscribCLX delivers the same message. So it is. Working this way with the 5-K it will do even better with the 5-J. Sure, it's def., def., def. and play off the lead.