Tuesday 3:12 AM

I couldn't pass up holding 12 points to start with today's hand. Eight cuts increase the value of this hand to 16, 20, or 24 points.

   

Tuesday 3:14 AM

Under normal circumstances I would never break up a 12 hand but this is not a normal hand-so many cuts hit the 2333,and one of the ones that doesn’t-the 8-gives us a 3 card run in the crib-also keeping this hand also gives us an opportunity to peg 10 points if the pone has all picture cards-not that unlikely a scenario

   

Tuesday 3:20 AM

I know the odds are better on just keeping the threes with a two ... give me ten more points difference and I would do it. I will just finagle my way towards 85 I like advancing more down the street. dec

   

Tuesday 3:52 AM

Hard to say "no" to a dozen, even knowing that very few cuts will help, and that the X-2 discard is crippled by negative delta.

   

Tuesday 5:58 AM

Almost the same as yesterday, but today I have 12 points, and that stays put. Toss 2-10.

   

Tuesday 6:23 AM

I am always taking 12.

   

Tuesday 6:24 AM

10 9 or 3 3 would have been better in my crib than 10 2 but this is too good a hand to split up.

   

Tuesday 6:28 AM

NEVER break up the 12 hand, no matter what the temptation options are, and ESPECIALLY with the lead and the position!!!!

   

Tuesday 9:00 AM

Furthur

   

Tuesday 9:12 AM

It may start out looking like less, but as I once stated here on these pages over five years ago, less is more.

Therefore, before we dash off and make a hasty decision here, let's ponder the actual epitaph of one Mr. Lester Moore, who purportedly was a Wells, Fargo Co. Station Agent for Naco, Arizona, back during the "Cowboy Days" of the 1880's. Poor Les is buried in Boot Hill Cemetery in Tombstone (consider the multiple ironies), Arizona beneath a gravestone which reads:


Here lies Lester Moore

Four slugs from a .44

No Les, No More.


Okay, so after we Keep (2 3 3 3) and Toss (9 T) 'of suit, to boot!' I think we shall have MORE in our Crib, and I also believe that we shall Peg MORE.

And thus, I am with mrob2199 here: Less is truly MORE today!

   

Tuesday 10:24 AM

Need a good reason to break 12 points. But Rob has given one. What does the computer say?

   

Tuesday 10:33 AM

Gave the 2,3,3,3 consideration, but ran with the bird-in-the-hand philosophy today. Being ahead made the decision even easier.

   

Tuesday 12:09 PM

Not crazy with that 8 cut, though suggests the crib does not need much help from n/d to score 8 points. After seeing the starter card, knowing have dealer guaranteed peg, six points in hand, and a known three in crib, will shift gears from def., def. to optimal pegging strategy. Play the deuce on any X-pointer. If n/d holding X-X-X-X, my treys peg two for pair, and 31-8 with the triple. Works that way quite often. Headed for routine medical appt with wife so will check in later. Agree this is a fine puzzle! Keep 'em coming hillchem.

   

Tuesday 12:12 PM

Since I only had one X-card in my hand, I figured I would try for one as the starter card.
At least the 8 gives me three in the crib. Now I have to work harder for all the points I need to get into position.

I saw no benefit in keeping the flush and although I would have more points in my hand, tossing T-2 was not acceptable.

   

Tuesday 12:38 PM

I go with the (2-10) discard, keeping 12 pts in hand.

   

Tuesday 3:33 PM

Do we keep 3-3-3-9 (2-10) or 2-3-3-3-(9-10)?:

3-3-3-9: 12pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.55) = 15½pts

2-3-3-3: 6pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.29) = 10¼pts

Potential:

3-3-3-9: Improves with 3, 6666, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 16/20pts with all cuts.

2-3-3-3: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3, 4444, 6666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 12/15/16/17pts with AAAA, 3, 4444, 7777. 999 + 15xXs = 31 cuts.

Position:

We're at the 70pt positional hole and Pone is well behind so I'll play Offense to build on our lead.

Pegging:

2-3-3-3 is a 4-card magic eleven so I think it will peg very well.

Summary:

3-3-3-9 has a better starting value by 5¼pts but 2-3-3-3 has many more cuts for improvement and 31 cuts for 12-17pts. Also the 2-10 will have considerable negative delta as we hold three 3s. Will 2-3-3-3 catch up the 5¼pts? I think it may well do so I'll throw the 9-10.

   

Tuesday 3:35 PM

At 70*-63 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
2-3-3-3___11.04+3.54+4.27=18.85____18.2____59.4
3-3-3-9___13.13+2.35+2.81=18.29____15.4____58.8

Offense_______L3 %____L4 %
2-3-3-3_______0.8_____8.4
3-3-3-9_______0.6_____7.3

2-3-3-3 is better for expected averages by 0.56pt and is appreciably better for Win %s. It is slightly worse for Loss %s but even so I'll select 9-10 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Tuesday 6:47 PM

This was just a game against a computer. I went with the sure 12 points and then checked Hal after. I was surprised to see that the 2-3-3-3 is so powerful a hold.