October 8, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
33*-37  ?
34%
28%
23%
9%
3%
1%
0%
Total votes: 188

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

mrob2199
165 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:13 AM
I think this hold gives us more chances at a cut helping us somewhere-I’m not thrilled with the pegging aspect of any potential keep either,so that doesn’t influence how I keep the hand
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dec
4651 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:18 AM
Stay the course and get a cut and/or discard help to get unto next street. Looks like careful read to have a possibility on a slight ad on the pegging. dec
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dgergens
399 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 3:33 AM
Hmmm. Voting at 2:30 in the morning and still the 5th vote. 6,8 in the crib is a good bet, but I think J,5 in the crib is equally as good and I can peg better with A,6,8,10; I believe.
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JQT
2611 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 3:46 AM
It's always nice to "have a little something extra" show up in our Crib.

Therefore, while perhaps a legitimate case could be made for either Toss (6 8) or Toss (A 8), I prefer the traditional discard of Toss (5 J) today.

(I mean, how else am I ever going to get a Twenty-Nine-Point Crib?!)
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Rosemarie44
1374 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 4:01 AM
Not confident that I chose the right discards. Not too happy about tossing a "gapper".
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zeke76
384 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Tuesday 4:21 AM
Went with the J5, but the case for 68 is compelling as well. Brown likes 68 over j5 11.1 to 11. Given J5 should peg better, that strikes me as a vote for J5.
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james500
2285 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 4:48 AM
A lone voice for 10-J.

Every cut improves this hand, which includes a 6-5 eleven.
Touching cards in the crib allows a reasonable chance at a three card run being formed, with three cards set to join them.
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glmccuskey
3090 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 5:15 AM
I’ll wait for my opponent to play their first card before I decide my pegging strategy. With that 8 cut, if they lead a middle card, I will engage.
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mfetchCT425
412 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 6:05 AM
Decided to keep the hand intact and tossed the 6-8 to crib which could capture something if dealer is forced to toss at least one middle card. As Rob mentions above, I don’t see any huge advantage in pegging potential with any of the viable hold options. This hold has some cuts that can get us an average or slightly above average hand (4, 5, 9, 10, J, Q).
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Gougie00
4052 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 6:17 AM
I'll toss 6-8 and hope for some help
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Jazzselke
1319 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 7:02 AM
Agree with the majority, but considered 5610J with 2 open-ended runs and possibility of 4 peg points on the first series. However much prefer 68 over A8.
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Andy (muesli64)
1599 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 7:14 AM
Now prefer 5-J lol
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horus93
546 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Tuesday 7:59 AM
I want to not give up much in the pegging at this RP so I like the spread of these cards
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RubyTuesday
224 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Tuesday 8:28 AM
What Andy said made me laugh (ruefully!)
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joekayak
896 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 9:58 AM
Good old J-5 to my own crib. Considered 8-6 but my opponents don't throw 7's.
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JRCeagle78
740 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 10:13 AM
How I peg with this hand may unfortunately depend on how the pone plays. I feel that the spread of my hand is more conducive to defense but the three spades may keep him guessing. The 6-8-T-A will be helped with any starter card but I was looking for a filler instead of the 8 but it gives me a little leeway when I have to play my 8.

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wasa
1379 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 10:14 AM
6-8, or 5-J? I've always put 6-8 in my crib, but today I decided 5-J since pone rarely throws me a 7. Interested to see what RAS & HAL say.
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JCM
262 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Tuesday 11:02 AM
(J 5) discard for me.
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Coeurdelion
3976 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 1:40 PM
I think it's between A-6-8-10 (5-J) and A-5-10-J (6-8) but perhaps 5-6-10-J (A-8) is worth looking at as well:

A-6-8-10: 2pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 9pts

A-5-10-J: 4pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.63) = 8½pts

5-6-10-J: 4pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = 7¾pts

Potential:

A-6-8-10: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999, 101010 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 6/7pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 = 17 cuts.

A-5-10-J: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 9999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10pts with 4444, 555, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 21 cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

5-6-10-J: Improves with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 69.6% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 4444, 555, 7777, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 25 cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Position:

Pone is only 7pts short of positional hole 44pts and I don't think we're likely to stop them. For our next deal we need 37pts to rach th 70pt positional hole which is a tall order as its 11pts above average but I'll play Offense and strive for this.

Pegging:

I don't think there will be a big difference in the pegging of these hands but perhaps A-6-8-10 will peg best.

Summary:

I think the starting value for 5-6-10-J is too low even though it has the most cuts for improvement and 25 for 7-10pts. A-5-10-J starts with ½pt down on A-6-8-10 but has one more cut for improvement and 21 cuts for 8-10pts plus it has the extra ¼pt for his nob. I think it will peg reasonably and the 6-8 discard has potential for a big hand in the crib. So I'll go with this.
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HalscribCLX
3753 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 1:43 PM
At 33*-37 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
A-6-8-10__4.09+3.07+6.80=13.96____10.6____20.3
A-5-10-J__6.70+2.52+4.62=13.84____12.2____21.5
5-6-10-J__7.04+3.07+3.66=13.77____10.4____18.9

Offense_______L6 %____L7 %
A-6-8-10______25.3____51.6
A-5-10-J______25.2____50.6
5-6-10-J______27.2____53.7

A-6-8-10 is best for expected averages by 0.12pt over A-5-10-J. However A-5-10-J is slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s and I am recommending an Offense strategy. Even so at this early stage of the game I'll decide on expected averages and select 5-J to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
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Ras2829
3516 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 4:33 PM
No need to play defense here; so it's off., off., off. and play on the lead. With non-dealer needing only 6 points to reach 2nd Street CPZ (43-47), dealer has nothing to defend. The pegging superiority of the A-6-8-10 and the high crib average of 5-J more than make up the difference in potential hand score compared to the A-5-10-J or 5-6-10-J. My empirical data gives an even greater average for the 5-J than does HalscribCLX. RAS has discarded 5-J to own crib 1,678 times in live play and recorded the results. Those 5-J tosses resulted in 11,895 points divided by the 1,678 times discarded = 7.088. BTW have great confidence in my discard averages when they include 1,000 or more samples. We're making progress as believe the last time I submitted this only 16% chose the 5-J discard. Try it - you'll like it!
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