September 21, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by James500
89-94*  ?
64%
12%
10%
6%
4%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 160
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:04 AM
We are "on target" if we can score half a dozen or more points here as Pone.

And meanwhile, the Dealer is "short" by perhaps a Single Hole, or thereabouts.

It would make no sense whatsoever therefore to retain the RUN and yet give away what are our Best Two Cards as Toss (3 3)! Especially when we can retain an additional point with Keep (3 3 6 9) and Toss (T J)! But is that *safe enough*?

Our safest discard would probably be Toss (6 T), but that rips our Six-Point gem-of-a-hand from Six Points all the way down to Four Points. Which really ain't that much, is it? But given not just our Relative Position, but our own *absolute* position, I think we can use that Six Points today!

Thus, it's Keep (3 3 6 9) and Toss (T J) and after the benign 8 Card Cut, let's lead a Trey.
JQT says: With Six Points in Hand, and Zero 'known' Points in Dealer's Crib, I believe we should prevail from such a POSITION as this more often than not. Especially if we can peg Two or Three Holes, we should attain our Desired Position, and even if Dealer scores 'par' he or she will be perhaps a hole or two 'shy' of that similar Desired Position.
JQT says: This arrangement tends to be Hit or Miss, but since any "like" card (33, 666, 999) gives us a dozen or fourteen, that means nearly 20% of the time we'll be trying desperately to hide our smile after the Cut! But alas, no smiles today; but no need to frown, either.
JQT says: A dozen ... or fourteen ... or do I see sweet sixteen(?) After all these years of hard work, I cannot count so high after 4 p.m., which it always seems to be, somewhere.
james500
3921 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 4:03 AM
X-6 from me. If I keep the 9-10 together, I've a 4/46 chance of an eight cut adding three points. If I keep the Jack I've a 12/46 chance of the cut adding a single point. Seems pretty even to me.

The cut was unhelpful, so I'll hope for the pegging to go something like this:
J(10)-5(15/2)-9(24)-go-3(27)-3(30/3).
JQT says: It's possibly slightly more complicated with your first thought: If you keep the 9-10 together, [there is] a 4/46 chance of an eight cut adding three points [and also a 3/46 chance of a Jack Cut similarly adding three points for a RUN, and yet meanwhile a 12/46 chance of the cut subtracting a single point due to Nobs in Dealer's Crib].
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 4:05 AM
JQT says it all. Not tossing a pair of 3's to opponent today. Expected averages favor holding 3-3-6-9.
dec
6356 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:13 AM
2 3 5 6 8 9 10 almost half the deck to add on hand with a wide discard to their crib. No pegging and hopefully a minimal crib here. relative positions. Three lead. dec
dec says: and the Jack definitely almost half the deck plus I almost find the added 3 6 9 dosnt come up that often so hopes lie on mostly the two or the eight. dec
RubyTuesday
912 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 4:48 AM
I wasn’t sure whether to toss 10 J and keep points in my hand, or 6 10 to put less interesting cards into dealer’s crib, decided on the latter.
RubyTuesday
912 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 4:50 AM
RubyTuesday says: What I tried to say here as a reply to my first comment was that I should have considered throwing 6 J, but didn’t.
Gougie00
5728 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 6:12 AM
Lousy hand at this stage. My best hope is a 3 or 6 cut.
PBatterson
1452 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 8:41 AM
Total Defense. Not tossing 3s, or J-10
JQT says: This is a very difficult call: whether to defend 'to the max' with Toss (6 T) or Toss (6 J) or; to find an 'acceptable balance' between offense and defense today with Toss (T J). The reason I opted for the latter is because of the fear that this game might 'drag on' for TWO more deals, and in a close Endgame Battle at say (117-118*), our Opponent could then enjoy the Dealer Pegging Advantage. By getting ourselves 'deeper into the zone' beyond Hole 96 at completion of This Deal, I think we stand a better chance of 'closing out this game' and winning with our Next Crib. But you may be correct: Our Opponent might beat us to the Finish Line as Next Non-Dealer with First Hand Show. It's a very close call, and something such as a Jack Cut here could decide things for (or more likely, against) us!
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 8:41 AM
I think we have to risk the touchers in this marginal position.
Ras2829
5152 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:00 PM
Needing to reach CPZ (95-99) will retain 6 points and hope for the 10-J to score 0-2 which it does on that side of the board 25.785% of the time. Though 8 is of no help to n/d, it seems to be of no direct benefit to the 10-J discard either. Thinking def. def., and will shift to optimal once knowing the 8 adds nothing to my hand score. Lead the 3D, if paired will take play the 9 spot for 15-2 rather than chance the triple. With dealer one hole shy of minimum position will play off other than as indicated.
Coeurdelion
5593 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 2:33 PM
3-3-6-9 (10-J) or 6-9-10-J (3-3)?:

3-3-6-9: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = +¼pt

6-9-10-J: 5pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -1½pts

Potential:

3-3-6-9: Improves with 33, 666, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 12/14/16pts with all cuts

6-9-10-J: Improves with 5555, 666, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 9/10/12pts with 5555, 666, 999, 101010, JJJ = 16 cuts. Plus 12 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Position:

Dealer is only 2pts short of positional hole. I'll play Defense to try to ensure they're not in a position to go out next deal. Whichever way we go though we really need a good cut for a decent hand.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 3-3-6-9 will peg better.

Summary:

3-3-6-9 has a starting value 1¾pts more than 6-9-10-J and although 6-9-10-J has many more cuts for improvement 3-3-6-9 has a better maximum with 8 cuts for a good/very good hand. It also should peg better defensively. So I'll throw the 10-J.
HalscribCLX
5316 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:52 PM
At 89-94* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W2 %____W3 %
3-3-9-J___5.85+(-2.41)+(-4.25)=(-0.81)___6.9____32.7
3-3-6-9___7.35+(-2.57)+(-5.63)=(-0.85)__13.8____35.1
3-3-9-10__5.85+(-2.37)+(-4.55)=(-1.07)___7.2____33.3
3-9-10-J__5.41+(-2.85)+(-4.53)=(-1.97)___6.6____31.9
6-9-10-J__7.15+(-3.11)+(-6.51)=(-2.47)__11.2____29.8

Defense_____L2 %____L3 %
3-3-9-J_____32.1____60.3
3-3-6-9_____39.5____56.7
3-3-9-10____32.4____59.8
3-9-10-J____33.5____61.5
6-9-10-J____45.9____63.7

3-3-9-J is slightly best for expected averages over 3-3-6-9 by 0.04pt but 3-3-6-9 is very much better for Win %s. 3-3-9-X is much lower for Loss % because of the safer 6-X discard but in this critical board position I'll keep the 3-3-6-9 for the close to best expected average and the best Win %. So I'll select 10-J to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll lead the 9 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead_______Net Pegging Pts.______Loss %
3______________(-1.11)____________0.7
9______________(-1.37)____________0.3
6______________(-1.49)____________1.0

Although the 3 lead is best for Net Pegging Points the 9 lead has lowest chance of Losing.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 2:55 PM
I'm late and have read the comments. I think I would choose 3-3-6-9(10-J) as well. We want to get past 96 this hand so that we may end the game(hopefully), next hand, as dealer. Or on 1st count in the subsequent hand.

After the 8 cut, try to get a few pegging pts but peg cautiously.

It's really all been said above.
glmccuskey says: Your not looking to win next hand as dealer. We hope to survive here to get out on first count two deals from here. Caution in the pegging as any pegs the dealer gets here adds greatly to their win percentage.
JQT says: If we can reach beyond 'par' Hole 96 at completion of This Deal, I would hope to go out with our Next Crib, and not require yet another deal; because even as Pone, especially if both players are close to going out, the Dealer would then once again have a Pegging Advantage.
JQT says: But we should achieve about Hole 115 or so with our Three Counts, so if playing Defense, then it's likely you are correct. It's probably one of those endgames in which we might have to adjust our goals and our aspirations after every card played!